The National Convention of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was held last weekend at the eagles Square, Abuja. Party enthusiasts are upbeat that the successful hosting of the event showcased the party’s unity, strength, and readiness to take on the challenges of governance, following the adoption of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the sole presidential candidate. According to supporters, this peaceful and inclusive convention has demonstrated the party’s ability to manage internal differences and present a united front.

However, as the party shifts focus from state congresses and the National Convention to primaries for various elective positions, several states have emerged as critical flashpoints where internal power struggles are intensifying ahead of the 2027 elections. Among other issues, the introduction of mandatory digital membership registers and tighter primary timelines have forced factions to consolidate early, leading to notable friction in several states.

Uneasy Calm in Ogun

In the South-West, Ogun State is a focal point due to succession politics. With Governor Dapo Abiodun’s second term nearing its final phase, quiet rivalries have escalated into public power plays. Figures like Senator Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi) have been highly active at the grassroots level. He recently demonstrated organisational efficiency during local congresses in Yewa South, signalling his readiness for the gubernatorial race. His presence at these events indicated that his grassroots structure is currently more visible than that of the official establishment.

Debate now revolves around whether the governorship will finally shift to Ogun West, a zone that has never produced a governor since the state’s creation in 1976. Groups like the Ogun West Initiative are aggressively framing 2027 as a matter of justice, pressuring the APC National Working Committee to micro-zone the ticket to that district. Senator Adeola, seen by the Yewa/Awori people as a symbol of this struggle, remains a frontline figure. As Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, he possesses significant financial leverage and a formidable structure. He has been endorsed by high-profile allies like Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele, who recently called him the most viable candidate for 2027.

However, local Egba and Ijebu elites remain uncomfortable with his transition from Lagos to Ogun politics and are moving to unite behind a home-grown candidate to check his influence. Furthermore, there is swirling speculation that Governor Abiodun may adopt Adesola Elegbeji as a Plan B if the Yayi momentum becomes too disruptive for the incumbent’s inner circle. Elegbeji was recently unveiled by Abiodun during a recent by-election.

Alternatively, the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Tokunbo Talabi, is frequently mentioned within the inner caucus as the governor’s preferred choice for a continuity agenda.

Despite these intrigues, a reliable source in Ogun West told Sunday Sun that Senator Yayi has concluded plans to make a public declaration of his ambition immediately after the convention. “Adeola’s rising popularity has become a headache for the state establishment, which views his ambition as a nightmare scenario. They see his quest as an unstoppable wind of change. As primaries hold in April, he will declare his intentions soon,” the source said.

A notable member of the state executive also confided in the newspaper that the national leadership is managing the situation to ensure a smooth transition, reportedly favouring Yayi for the Ogun ticket.

The stakes are high, with 11 men and four women vying for the seat. A notable chieftain of the party, Olootu Bolaji Adeniji, argued that Adeola’s candidacy would correct historical imbalances and noted that, among all contenders, Adeola is the most prepared and credible in terms of delivering democratic dividends.

Cold war in Kwara

In Kwara, tension stems from an internal cold war involving the AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq administration and remnants of the original Otoge movement. As the governor enters the twilight of his term, the battle for a successor has intensified, with rival groups accusing each other of register padding to influence the direct primaries.

Unlike 2023, 2027 is expected to be a wide-open contest. There is significant agitation from Kwara North for a power shift, as it is the only zone that hasn’t held the governorship since 1999. Aspirants from the zone, including Senator Sadiq Umar, have pledged to work together to avoid vote-splitting. While the North secured a unified delegate list during the March 7 congress, some caucuses grumble that the list still favours the governor’s central inner circle.

Additionally, a movement is advocating a Christian successor to break the long-standing Muslim-Muslim leadership streak. To prevent an implosion, the party has empowered Northern leaders like Speaker Yakubu Danladi-Salihu to act as stabilizers. The NWC in Abuja has signalled it favours the North’s argument but will not formally zone the ticket, keeping the competition open.

Zoning controversy in Oyo

The APC in Oyo State is navigating a calculated balance of zoning and consensus. Publicity Secretary Olawale Sadare defended the current arrangement, stating that executive positions were distributed to ensure representation across all 33 local government areas. He dismissed concerns that the emergence of former deputy governor, Chief Moses Alake Adeyemo would tilt the race, insisting merit would determine the candidate. Professor Adeniyi Olowofela added that discontent is expected in politics, but added that consensus decisions will be guided by competence and experience.

Uncertainty in Lagos

The political atmosphere in Lagos is thick with uncertainty as Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu completes his second term. A major source of speculation is Seyi Tinubu, son of the President. Various youth groups have surfaced drafting him into the race, a prospect that remains polarizing.

Other established figures being watched include Senator Tokunbo Abiru (Lagos East), seen as a technocrat in the mould of previous governors, and Chief of Staff Femi Gbajabiamila, whose proximity to the presidency makes him a perennial favourite. Deputy Governor, Dr. Obafemi Hamzat and Speaker Mudashiru Obasa are also in the news. Ultimately, the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC) holds the power; until they signal a preference, all names remain speculative. There is also an unwritten expectation for a Muslim candidate to follow Sanwo-Olu, a Christian, to maintain historical rotation.

Defectors vs old guard in Delta

Recent congresses in Delta have deepened the rift between the old guard and a new power bloc. The crisis stems from the defection of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and several legislators from the PDP to the APC, reordering the internal hierarchy. This has seemingly sidelined the faction led by former Deputy Senate President Ovie Omo-Agege. While the new leadership maintains the congresses were peaceful, aggrieved stakeholders allege that delegate lists were harmonised in private rather than through democratic voting.

Zamfara: Old rivals, new conflicts

The rivalry between Governor Dauda Lawal and his predecessor, Bello Matawalle, has entered an unexpected phase. In a stunning move, Governor Lawal defected from the PDP to the APC on March 9, 2026. Matawalle subsequently pledged his support, declaring Lawal as his only candidate for 2027. However, tensions remain as Lawal’s administration continues to pursue a ₦70 billion corruption case against Matawalle. By joining the APC, Lawal has consolidated power locally but must now navigate a crowded house that includes heavyweights like Abdul’aziz Yari and Senator Marafa. (The Sun)