Nearly half of Conservative Party members believe Kemi Badenoch should step down before the next general election, according to a new YouGov poll that lays bare deepening unease within the Tory ranks.

The survey, published on October 6 and reported by Sky News, found that 50 per cent of members think Badenoch should not lead the Conservatives into the 2029 general election, while 46 per cent say she should. The findings point to a party increasingly divided over its direction and leadership after its crushing defeat in 2024.

Badenoch, 45, made history last year as the first Black woman to lead a major UK political party, taking charge after the Conservatives were reduced to just 121 seats. But her tenure has been dogged by internal rifts, poor polling, and criticism that she has focused too heavily on culture-war issues rather than bread-and-butter concerns such as the economy and living costs.

Despite some lingering goodwill among party loyalists, the new data suggest her grip on power is weakening. YouGov found that while 61 per cent of members believe Badenoch is doing a good job as leader, 37 per cent disagree. Around three in ten (29 per cent) view her unfavourably, even as 70 per cent still hold a positive view of her overall.

“Even among those who voted for her to be party leader last year, 30 per cent believe Badenoch should be replaced before the next general election,” YouGov said.

The poll also highlights the rising profile of Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary and Badenoch’s main rival in last year’s leadership race. Jenrick emerged as the preferred alternative, with 37 per cent of members naming him as their top choice to succeed her. Former prime minister Boris Johnson remains a nostalgic favourite for 22 per cent, while 20 per cent backed shadow housing secretary James Cleverly.

The results come at a delicate moment for Badenoch. The Conservatives have suffered a string of by-election and local council losses in 2025, and national polling continues to place the party far behind Labour. A recent YouGov projection suggested the Tories would win just 45 seats if an election were held today — their lowest tally in modern history — with only 11 per cent of the public believing they are ready to govern again.

Some Tory insiders fear that without a major course correction, the party risks another collapse in 2029. “Members are frustrated that we’ve not learned the lessons of last year,” said one senior party figure. “There’s a feeling that Kemi’s trying to please the wrong crowd, and it’s not cutting through with voters.”

Others, however, defend her leadership as principled and necessary. Allies of Badenoch dismissed the latest poll as “unrepresentative”, insisting she remains focused on rebuilding trust with voters and reforming the party.

Yet discontent appears to be spreading. Nearly half of respondents (49 per cent) believe Badenoch will be ousted before the election, compared to 47 per cent who think she’ll survive until 2029.

Adding to the uncertainty, the poll found that many members favour closer ties — or even a merger — with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, signalling a potential shift further to the right in the party’s grassroots.

Badenoch faces her toughest challenge yet, convincing a sceptical party that she can lead it back to power. For now, the numbers suggest she has a fight on her hands, not with Labour, but with her own members. (BusinessDay)