In a rehash of former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s ‘Operation Conquer Southwest’ ahead of 2003 general elections, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is re-enacting the political strategy with the outcome of Ondo governorship election and the 2026 off-season polls in Ekiti and Osun states. The game plan is not unconnected with the bid to bolster the re-election of President Bola Tinubu in 2027, SEYE OLUMIDE reports.

Determination of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to control the six states in the Southwest, ahead of 2027 general elections, is believed to be the driver of its desperation, despite the criticisms of the opposition that faulted the outcome of the last Ondo State governorship election.

For the ruling APC and incumbent President Bola Tinubu, a victory to retain Ekiti and regain Osun, is as important to his political integrity, just as it is to his second term ambition.

The President will also want to regain Oyo State from the PDP in 2027, for his party to control the six states of Southwest and to also establish his ‘political superiority’ over Governor Seyi Makinde, who seems to be at loggerheads with the incumbent President.

If the PDP must have a foothold in the region ahead of 2027, it has to win Ekiti and also retain control of Osun in 2026 to strike a balance. If this is done, both parties will control three states each in the region ahead of 2027, which will make the battle for the next general elections more competitive, especially if the PDP cedes its presidential ticket to the South.

Anything short of victory for PDP, particularly in Osun, will reduce the umbrella party to an underdog in 2027 and Governor Makinde a lone ranger in the Southwest.

At present APC controls four states in the region, which are Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and Ondo, while PDP forms governments in Oyo and Osun. Political observers predict that the real battle ground will be in Osun, the hometown of President Tinubu, which he lost to the PDP and political might of Governor Ademola Adeleke’s family in 2022.

While APC and President Tinubu will struggle to save their political integrity by trying to regain Osun, Governor Adeleke will strive to sustain his family’s reputation and PDP’s status quo in the region ahead of 2027.

One of the reasons adduced for the desperation in the coming 2026 off-cycle governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun bothered on how APC deployed the apparatus of state power and institutions, to regain Edo from the PDP in the September 21, 2024 gubernatorial poll. It was projected after the Edo poll that the ruling party would repeat a similar feat in Ondo, which it did.

The outcome of theelection, especially the allegedinability of the Independent National ElectoralCommission (INEC) to live up to expectations, made observers predict that opposition parties, particularly PDP, stand no chance against the incumbent governor and candidate of the APC, Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa in Ondo State.

Harping on how his party secured victories in Edo and Ondo states and the strategies deployed, APC National Chairman, Umar Ganduje, sent a strong signal that Osun is the next line of target in 2026 and in 2027, Oyo.

Political analysts believed Ganduje revealed the desperation of the party to win by all means the off-season elections in the region to pave the way for the re-election bid of President Tinubu.

Indeed, this is not the first time such political ambition is being hatched by a ruling party. Many will not forget in a hurry how former President Olusegun Obasanjo launched ‘Operation Capture Southwest’ ahead of 2003 general elections to win his re-election and oust the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) in power, except Lagos.

Former National Vice Chairman Southwest of the PDP, Dr. Eddy Olafeso, has also raised the alarm that what played out in Edo and Ondo, may also be repeated in the coming Ekiti and Osun off-season elections, where the processes to the polls were massively rigged and tailored, through the instrumentality of state in favour of particular candidates.

To buttress Olafeso’s concern, President of Yoruba Ronu Leadership Forum, Akin Malaolu, warned that in such circumstances, where the process of an election was rigged and also manipulated like that of Edo and Ondo, nothing different should be expected in future polls. He said: “The outcome of such elections might even be very difficult to challenge in the court, not to think of upturning it.”

Malaolu said the only option is for Nigerians, to stand firm and reject money inducement offered to them to sell their votes. According to him: “What Ganduje said should be taken beyond Ekiti and Osun elections. The APC national chairman has just disclosed to Nigerians the strategies his party will adopt to win 2027 general elections.”

Governor Makinde recently said that the 2027 elections would be a contest between APC and Nigerians, and not even about APC versus PDP. But the worrisome aspect of it, as pointed out by Mr Wale Okunniyi, a stalwart of National Consultative Front (NCFront) and the Mega Party, is about INEC, which he accused of having failed to live up to the expectations of the Nigerian electorates, supervising the coming elections in Ekiti and Osun elections.

A leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in Southwest, Bisi Olopoeyan, said there may be a need to reform the electoral umpire, if other elections are to be free, fair and credible.

Copious among the concerns expressed by political observers after the Edo and Ondo governorship elections, is that the ruling party appears to have perfected and modified the strategy for vote-buying.

They noted that instead of inducing voters at the polling units, popularly known as ‘see and buy,’ the strategy now comes in a form where neighbouring APC’s governors move their state’s vaults to where off-cycle polls are being held to pay solidarity to their contesting colleague or candidate.

As witnessed in Edo and Ondo, both APC and PDP governors moved in and pretended to mobilise citizens of their state, who reside in the state where election is holding, to support the candidate of their party. In the process, a huge amount of money was allegedly disbursed ahead of the polls to mobilise non-indigenes, to support a particular contestant.

Not less than nine APC’s governors became temporary residents in those states, some days to the election. They did not leave until the results were declared.

Despite strategic moves by the APC to win the two major off-season elections in the region, the strength of the opposition parties and their acceptability by the people will determine future elections.

For instance, the 2026 governorship election in Ekiti State may not be keenly contested due to the current fragile status of the PDP in the state and position of some of its leaders to further weaken the party for APC’ advantage.

Former Governor Ayo Fayose, who is supposed to be the father and leader of Ekiti PDP, is neither here nor there. He is accused of junketing between APC and PDP. He is also being accused of endorsing Oyebanji for his second term bid. The Ekiti State election is possibly going to be a one way contest, except PDP reorganises itself to become a formidable opposition to challenge APC.

APC will find it difficult to realise his ambition in Osun as the party will contend with strong resistance from Governor Adeleke who is still enjoying massive support from the people.

Governor Adeleke won the 2022 governorship election on the basis of his personal popularity, just as he also took advantage of the crisis between former Governor Gboyega Oyetola and his successor, Rauf Aregbesola. Even now the crisis in the major opposition APC in Osun is festering. Just recently, the Osun State chapter of APC, expelled Aregbesola, a development that infuriated his supporters.

It is also not clear which candidate Osun APC will pick that will match the popularity of Adeleke. Though there are feelers that the incumbent Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Oyetola, who is also a blood relation to President Tinubu, is nursing the ambition to re-contest against Adeleke.

But the PDP National Vice Chairman (Southwest) Ajisafe Toyese, said there is nothing to fear, “Governor Adeleke is going to re-emerge in the contest.”He said Osun PDP remains intact as all the political structures including the State Assembly, House of Representatives and the three senate seats are all under PDP’s control.

However, the game may be slightly different in Oyo State come 2027 as Governor Makinde is not going to be on the ballot. The unsettled dust of the outcome of Ondo governorship election may have a serious impact in Oyo depending on how the incumbent governor manages the situation.

At present, the control of Oyo politics looks like 60/40 per cent in favour of the PDP, which controls all the 33 local government structures and the State Assembly, while APC has all the three senators, and a considerable number of seats in the House of Representatives are shared between both parties. But Oyo APC still looks more disjointed than the ruling party because it lacks a central leader to coordinate its affairs. How soon the party may put its house in order to challenge the well-oiled political structure of Governor Makinde, is still uncertain.

There is the structure of the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, who left APC to contest the 2023 governorship election on the platform of Accord but lost to Makinde. Since he was appointed minister and his return to the party, he has not made any significant impact on the party that could unsettle Governor Makinde.

Governor Makinde on his own may find it difficult to single handedly determine his successor and from critical observations, Oyo State PDP is perceived to be weak just like the major opposition APC. Except for the governor, who is the leader of the party for now, the chances of APC taking over the state as Ganduje boasted, is still open. (The Guardian, but headline rejigged)