By examining exchange-rate movements through a total-return model, the study reveals how currency depreciation can erode nominal gains in Nigeria’s capital market and affect international purchasing power.

On October 21, 2026, independent macro-financial researcher Felix Obinna Iroegbu officially released his much-anticipated empirical research report, Exchange-Rate Exposure and the Decomposition of Dual-Currency Returns: Evidence from the Nigerian Market. The study is publicly available through his official website, ewmade.com. Addressing the challenges Nigerian and overseas investors face when evaluating local-market performance, the report uses quantitative calculations to demonstrate how the same asset can generate markedly different returns when measured in naira and US dollars.

The research centres on a direct question: when a local asset rises sharply in naira terms, how much of its absolute dollar value remains after currency conversion?

Key Finding: Strong Nominal Gains Accompanied by a Dollar-Denominated Loss

Iroegbu personally led and independently completed the research. The report uses Nigeria’s benchmark NGX All-Share Index (NGX ASI) as its core subject, with the observation period strictly defined as January 1 to October 20, 2026.

The calculations produced a striking result. During this period, supported by inflation expectations and domestic capital inflows, the NGX ASI recorded a strong nominal return of 28.5% in naira terms. However, after accounting for exchange-rate depreciation over the same period, its dollar-converted return fell sharply to −4.2%.

The result demonstrates that naira depreciation more than offset the market’s nominal capital gains. Assessing cross-border allocations therefore requires moving beyond a single local-currency perspective to understand changes in an asset’s purchasing power.

Data Standards and Total-Return Methodology

To support a consistent and reproducible comparison, the study establishes clearly defined data standards. Its calculations use a total-return model that explicitly includes the reinvestment of all dividends distributed during the observation period, with currency conversion based on the corresponding ex-dividend-date exchange rates. This approach addresses the omission of dividend income inherent in a price-return-only comparison.

The calculations present gross returns to isolate underlying asset performance. Trading costs and taxes applicable across the relevant jurisdictions are excluded.

For currency conversion, the study uses the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) daily volume-weighted average exchange rate published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as its sole reference, rather than unofficial parallel-market rates. Underlying asset prices are drawn directly from official closing data published by Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).

The Distinction Between Valuation and Execution

Alongside its findings, the report defines an important limitation. A dollar-converted valuation calculated using an official reference exchange rate does not represent the amount an international investor could necessarily convert and repatriate without additional costs or constraints.

Actual cross-border transfers remain subject to foreign-exchange liquidity conditions and conversion spreads. Disclosing this distinction helps readers assess the findings within the appropriate analytical boundaries.

Research Background and Focus

Felix Obinna Iroegbu focuses on global macroeconomics, fixed income and emerging-market investment research, with particular attention to interest rates, currency movements and cross-border capital flows. His published professional biography lists a Bachelor of Science in Finance from the University of Lagos.

The naira–dollar return study applies these research interests to the analysis of underlying asset performance in Nigeria, connecting broader macroeconomic conditions with measurable investment outcomes.

Report Access and Data Sources

The complete calculation worksheets, source-data links and methodological explanations have been made publicly available alongside the study. Readers can access these materials through the official website to trace the data and review the analytical process.

Contact Person

Yohan Yun

https://www.fatiwee.com/