The All Progressives Congress (APC) has ditched the consensus arrangement and begun direct primaries nationwide from Friday, May 15 to pick candidates for the 2027 elections.

The move follows a failure to secure unanimous agreement among aspirants and marks a significant shift in the party’s internal power dynamics, triggering Section 87(2) of the Electoral Act 2026.

For the first time since 2015, the ruling party is placing its fate in the hands of registered members at the ward level. With President Bola Tinubu recently reaffirming party structures over automatic tickets for lawmakers, the May 15-23 window becomes a make-or-break contest in all 8,809 wards nationwide. This is less about ideology and more about control. The question is whether APC can manage the process without fracturing itself before the general elections.

The trigger is legal and political. Section 87(2) of the Electoral Act 2026 states that where a political party is unable to secure the written consent of all cleared aspirants for a consensus candidate, it shall revert to direct primaries for the nomination of candidates. In most states, the consensus option earlier adopted by the party leadership was anything but unanimous. That provision gives individual aspirants effective veto power and prevents party leadership from imposing a unity list if even one aspirant refuses to step down.

Politically, the timing fits Tinubu’s strategy. As far back as late 2024, the president had signaled that party structures, not high-level endorsements, would determine who gets APC tickets. It’s a break from the old order where governors and power brokers produced delegate lists and handed out tickets with minimal input from the base. That system produced winners but also post-primary lawsuits, defections, and resentment that weakened the party in several states. Direct primaries, in theory, cut out the middlemen.

The stakes are clear. For years, governors controlled state APC structures and used them to determine who ran for what. That made them kingmakers and potential threats to the presidency. Direct primaries bypass that gatekeeping. The leverage now shifts to three groups: the presidency, which can mobilise resources and security for preferred candidates; local strongmen with ward-level loyalty; and money politics, because 8,809 wards mean 8,809 mobilisation points.

On paper, this transfers nomination power from party power brokers to registered party members. In practice, it will test APC’s organisational capacity and its willingness to accept unpredictable outcomes. The party tried direct primaries in Osun and Ekiti in 2018. The results were mixed. There was less delegate manipulation, but also logistical nightmares, allegations of vote buying, and parallel primaries in some areas. Scaling that to every ward in the country is a different proposition.

Who benefits? Incumbents with a genuine grassroots base stand to gain, because they can mobilise ward by ward without relying on state governors. Tinubu loyalists in states where governors are lukewarm or hostile also have an opening. New entrants who can organise at the ward level without Abuja connections get a fairer shot than under consensus. The losers are likely to be governors who lost control of party machinery after 2023, Abuja-based politicians with no ward presence, and defectors from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and other parties who expected automatic tickets.

Risks of implosion, lawsuits

The risks for APC are real. If losers reject results, there will be parallel primaries and a flood of lawsuits. The credibility of the process hinges on the membership register. Ghost members and inflated registers could undermine the whole exercise and give ammunition to the opposition.

Logistically, deploying INEC and security agencies to secure 8,809 venues simultaneously poses a big challenge. The 2023 general elections showed how thinly stretched security can be.

Ultimately, if APC implodes in states, PDP, ADC, and the emerging NDC coalition could pick up easy wins. Civil society groups have already warned that INEC’s biggest challenge in 2027 is the perception that results are predetermined. Direct primaries can either improve that perception or make it worse. For voters, the difference between a credible ward-level vote and a chaotic, money-driven exercise will be obvious.

For Tinubu, this is a stress test of his hold on the party. A clean, credible process strengthens his narrative of reform and discipline. It signals that APC can evolve beyond the godfather model. A messy process validates critics who say the party is a platform for winning elections, not a vehicle for internal democracy. Either way, the presidency will be judged on how it manages disputes and enforces discipline afterward.

Beyond APC, the outcome matters for Nigeria’s democracy. If the ruling party can pull off credible direct primaries, it raises the bar for PDP, ADC and others. It forces all parties to build real structures at the ward level instead of relying on Abuja deals. If it fails, it sets the tone for a chaotic 2027 cycle where money and violence determine outcomes more than membership.

The era of buying a ticket through consensus is ending, at least for APC. The era of winning it ward by ward is beginning. The real test now is whether the party can sustain the discipline to see it through, and whether members will use the power they’ve been given.

High tension in states

Anxiety is already building over disputes likely to arise from the direct primaries, especially in states with a history of factional fights or where sitting governors are not fully aligned with President Tinubu.

Ogun State

Political temperature is rising over the clash between Governor Dapo Abiodun and Ogun East Senator Otunba Gbenga Daniel. An aide to Governor Abiodun said Daniel’s refusal to accept a consensus arrangemen’ forced the Ogun East senatorial primary scheduled for Monday.

He said: “APC stakeholders have unanimously endorsed Governor Dapo Abiodun as the consensus candidate for the Ogun East Senatorial District. However, Otunba Gbenga Daniel is insisting on direct primaries. His refusal to yield is a proof of his obstinacy, as all other aspirants have already stepped down. On Monday, he is set to challenge my principal, as the Senate Screening Committee has cleared him to contest.

“”He is not backing down. In fact, it would not be surprising if he attempts to conduct a parallel primary, regardless of whether he secures INEC supervision.

“Ultimately, I am confident my principal will scale the primary hurdle. His strategy is watertight, and he has been successfully mobilising support across every nook and cranny of the district. His victory is certain.”

Daniel himself has warned against intimidation: “I have heard that people may be scared from coming out to vote, but they should not be intimidated. This is a democratic process and everyone has the right to participate freely.”

He spoke further: “In a free and fair primary, I will not only win, I will win overwhelmingly”.

At the grassroots, APC members in Abeokuta South staged a protest demanding membership cards and fair play: “We don’t want imposition in our local government. We want free and fair primaries, and we need adequate security during the process”. Ogun Central chieftain, Olanrewaju Olutunji also alleged that “many members were increasingly worried that some individuals were secretly making efforts to impose favoured candidates. Several members at the ward levels have faced threat and intimidation for voicing against imposition”.

Rivers State

The situation in Rivers State is more complex. While Nyesom Wike controls the FCT and runs a rival PDP structure, he also retains influence in APC. That, combined with unresolved disputes between the Tony Okocha and Emeka Beke factions, raises the risk of parallel primaries between Tinubu loyalists and Wike’s camp. Both sides will claim to hold the authentic ward register.

Tensions deepened after the screening exercise disqualified 65 of 98 aspirants over issues including “inducement and attempted bribery, submission of unsworn affidavits, invalid voter cards, and lack of party membership slips”. Several aspirants linked to Governor Siminalayi Fubara and Tonye Cole were among those affected, prompting Wike to meet APC National Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda amid the fallout.

Kano State

Former APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje still has a grip on the party, but Senator Barau Jibrin’s faction is challenging his control of the structure. Ganduje will try to install loyalists, but Barau’s bloc has strong ward-level support. The standoff could produce multiple parallel primaries and a repeat of the Zamfara experience.

Across Kano, Taraba, Jigawa and other states, aggrieved aspirants are already mobilising petitions and possible legal challenges. Party stakeholders warn that “attempts to impose candidates could trigger defections, anti-party activities and deepen internal divisions ahead of the primaries”.

Ondo State

Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa’s push for consensus drew resistance from party stakeholders and aspirants. Aggrieved aspirants under the Ondo State Progressive Aspirants platform raised the alarm over an alleged plot to intimidate opponents. Spokesman Jimi Adekanle said: “Within the APC’s internal framework, consensus is expected to emerge through negotiations, consultations, and voluntary agreement among aspirants and stakeholders”. He alleged that the move violated the Electoral Act 2026 and warned that those recruited for planned attacks “were assured they would operate under the cover of security personnel”.

Kaduna

In Kaduna, Governor Uba Sani holds the governorship, but former Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s loyalists still control parts of the structure. Though El-Rufai is now in the ADC, his allies may sabotage the process or run parallel primaries, leaving the party open to legal challenges over the register.

Zamfara

Zamfara has a history of INEC nullifying APC primaries due to disputes. Now, Minister of State for Defence, Bello Matawalle, a Tinubu loyalist, is up against former Governor Abdulaziz Yari, who commands his own bloc. Both claim control of the APC structure. If they follow the old script, the outcome is predictable.

Benue

In Benue, Governor Hyacinth Alia has been at odds with SGF George Akume, who controls the APC structure nationally and wants loyalists in place. The prolonged power tussle makes a split primary likely at the ward level.

Similar fractures exist in Kogi between Governor Usman Ododo and Yahaya Bello, in Delta between new defectors and old APC members, and in Imo between Governor Hope Uzodimma and Rochas Okorocha.

Implication for the 2027 Elections

The first implication is that APC risks walking into 2027 with the same wound it suffered in 2019 and 2023: self-inflicted primaries crises. States like Zamfara, Rivers, and Kano already cost the party governorships or federal seats when INEC nullified results or courts ruled against parallel primaries. If 8,809 ward-level contests produce 10-15 states with competing winners, the litigation will drag into September. That leaves APC candidates with no time to campaign, while PDP, ADC, and the NDC consolidate early. Internal democracy means little if it ends in court and disillusionment.

Second, these fights reveal the limits of Tinubu’s control over the party. Direct primaries were meant to weaken governors and transfer power to the presidency. But in states where ex-governors and ministers have defected to NDC or retain ward-level loyalty, the presidency can’t enforce outcomes without appearing autocratic. The result is a fractured middle ground: governors keep state-level tickets, Abuja controls some federal seats, and nobody has full control. That might preserve APC’s numerical strength on paper, but it weakens discipline and makes it harder to present a united front against the opposition’s “rescue Nigeria” narrative.

Third, the disputes also create an opening for APC to rebuild credibility if managed well. Voters are tired of Abuja-imposed candidates and consensus deals that bypass the base. Oyo APC aspirants put it bluntly: “Imposition is a betrayal of democracy, and we reject it totally, completely and without compromise”. They added that “let consensus never become a cover for exclusion or manipulation. The process must be transparent, free, fair and clean”, and condemned “the flaunting of cash and every form of inducement that corrupts the process of selecting our leaders”.

Senator Ayo Arise echoed the call for transparency: “The party is making a lot of effort to ensure a free and fair contest, having played down consensus, which leaves the fate of most politicians in the hands of a few people if not properly checked”. He stressed that “as long as electoral malpractice is not introduced, disputes will not be difficult to resolve. Once a person has gone through the primary and lost fairly, the next step Is to accept the outcome”.

APC National Chairman Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda warned that the party “will not tolerate any act capable of disrupting the smooth conduct of the primaries”. He said any aspirant or supporter found instigating violence or undermining the process “will face severe disciplinary measures, including immediate suspension from the party”.

APC’s gamble on direct primaries will define its 2027 campaign before the first ballot is cast. On paper, the move returns power to the party’s base and buries the backroom consensus deals that have bred resentment and defections. In practice, the May 15-23 window is a stress test of whether the ruling party can manage democracy within its own ranks.

If APC pulls off credible primaries in most states, it gains more than candidates. It gains a story. “We let members choose” is a message that cuts through voter cynicism better than any campaign slogan. It forces PDP, ADC, and NDC to explain why they still rely on elite bargains. It also gives Tinubu political capital to demand loyalty and discipline after the primaries.

But if the process collapses into parallel primaries, litigation, and violence in states, the damage is immediate. Candidates will enter the general election bruised, broke, and distracted by court cases. The opposition will inherit ready-made fractures to exploit.

The choice for APC Is simple. Use direct primaries to rebuild trust from the ward up, or use them to settle old scores and risk losing both. In Nigerian politics, there is a saying that parties that can’t manage their primaries can rarely manage the country. (The Sun)