The relief that households experienced just a few weeks ago as the price of rice especially the short grains crashed to as low as N65,000-N67,000 per 50kg bag has been replaced with despair as the price of the staple food has shot up again.

As of the time of going to Press, the price of 50kg imported short grain Indian rice which dropped from N90,000 which it was sold for in December 2024 to N65,000-N67,000 in January this year has gone up to N75,000, with traders believing it will still go up.

While the imported long grain 50kg bag Thai rice which was sold for as high as N100,000 during the Yuletide but came down to N88,000-N89,000 three weeks ago is currently selling for as high as N92,000-N105,000 depending on the popularity of the brand.

The locally grown rice is not immune to the steady increase in price as the price of 50kg Bull rice sells for between N84,000-N90,000 while the popular Abakaliki rice sells for N84,000 per 50kg in Ebonyi/Enugu states and sells for over N90,000 in major cities outside the Eastern part of Nigeria due to cost of transportation.

When the cost of the commodity crashed last month, many people attributed it to the strengthening of the Naira, better conditions of trade at the land borders and a host of other reasons.

However, investigations especially at the popular Iddo and Daleko markets in Lagos revealed that the above explanations were not the reason for the temporary crash in the cost of the staple grain.

Research revealed that the short respite experienced by Nigerians was an annual trend. “The price of rice crashes at the beginning of every year and steadily climbs up from the middle of February every year as the Ramadan season approaches”, explained Hajia Zannab Yahaya one of the major dealers in rice at the Iddo market, Ebuttemeta Lagos

“Everyone who follows the rice trend in Nigeria knows this. For about one month now, rice was cheap because there was little or no demand for it. Most people had bought bags of rice in December and still have rice stocked in their homes,” enthusiastically explained Hajia.

“Many people, including traders who are aware of this trend, usually cash into this opportunity, to stockpile rice that they will eat or sell during the lean season. Now the price has started climbing up, people that bought about a month ago are now selling with good profit,” noted the rice dealer.

Kayode Ijesha, another rice dealer and an executive member of the market association said that Ramadan and Easter celebrations were drawing close. “As usual the demand for rice will start going up and as people run low on the ones bought in December, they will start coming back for more, hence the increase in the price.”

On speculation about the effect of land borders on rice in Nigeria, Kayode dismissed the rumours. “If the land borders open, the price of imported rice will fall to as low as N50,000 per 50kg of rice. It is the unavailability of rice that even makes the price go high. If the borders open, foreign rice will be everywhere and the locally cultivated rice will find it hard to sell”.

Regarding the high cost of locally cultivated rice, research disclosed that Nigeria’s rice production has hit the lowest level in four years as high production costs force farmers to reduce their cultivation areas.

Rice production declined by 7 percent in the 2024/2025 season to 5.23 million metric tons (MT) from 5.61 million MT in the 2023/2024 season, according to data from a new report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). One report estimates that the decline could be between 15 and 23 per cent over the period.

The USDA data indicates that the figure is the lowest the country has recorded since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic obstructed farming activities.

Farmers say their rice revenues and profits are hard hit by the rising input prices, with insecurity, climate change and the influx of cheaper foreign varieties making it even harder for agro-based firms to stay afloat.

“Prices on all inputs have increased four or five times already and they still keep rising,” said Muhammed Augie, former state chairman of Rice Farmer Association, Kebbi State Chapter.

“Incentives to grow rice are no longer there. Demand from millers have declined, no more federal government intervention and the markets are flooded with cheaper imported rice products,” he explained.

He noted that these factors have forced several rice farmers to shift to other crops with lesser production costs, noting that those still growing rice grain have reduced their production areas.

Ahmed Idris, a rice grower in Jigawa, said he usually grows rice on five hectares of land but has reduced it to two hectares owing to his inability to afford inputs to cover his entire farmland.

“The money I spent cultivating five hectares two or three years ago can only cultivate two hectares,” he said, noting that the government’s subsidised inputs under the Anchor Borrowers Programme for rice farmers were huge before it was suspended indefinitely.

Last year, the federal government suspended the Anchor Borrowers Programme – a key initiative targeted at boosting rice production. It was suspended over fraud allegations and farmers’ failure to repay loans extended to them.

Millers are also hit by the shortfall in production and rising input costs as prices of paddy surged by 100 per cent to between N70,000 to N80,000 per 80kg bag, depending on location and quality.

According to RIPAN, Nigeria needs 11 million metric tons of paddy to meet the current domestic consumption. It puts production at 4.6 million MT.

The country’s rice milling industry has a processing capacity of 7.5 million metric tonnes, according to data from the association.

The association in a 2023 snapshot report said most millers had large unutilised capacity and hence huge overheads per unit of capacity utilised owing to macroeconomic challenges.

“A large number of millers have shut down operations owing to rising production costs,” Peter Dama, National Chairman, Rice Millers Association of Nigeria (RIMAN), said in response to questions.

To address issues of millers, President Tinubu granted import-free waivers for importers of rice paddy, but the foreign exchange volatility has made it difficult for processors to import and mill at competitive prices. (The Nation)