Rising temperatures and heat stress could wipe out millions of jobs, undermine productivity and inflict billions of dollars in annual economic losses across six countries, with Ethiopia, Ghana, Senegal and Sri Lanka among those facing particularly severe consequences, new studies by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) have warned.

The studies, covering Ethiopia, Ghana, Lebanon, the Maldives, Senegal and Sri Lanka, project that climate change will increasingly threaten workers’ health and safety, employment opportunities, business operations and national economies, particularly in countries with large concentrations of outdoor and labour-intensive jobs.

Launched at a high-level online event on October 29, 2026, the studies warned that the consequences of rising temperatures could become significantly worse over the coming decades unless governments, employers and other stakeholders urgently strengthen workplace adaptation and climate resilience measures.

According to the projections, even under a low-emissions scenario, climate change could account for the loss of about 1.78 million full-time equivalent jobs in Ethiopia, 550,000 in Ghana, 145,000 in Sri Lanka, 129,000 in Senegal, 21,700 in Lebanon and 2,400 in the Maldives by 2040.

The economic implications are equally alarming, with annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses projected to reach $33.3 billion in Ethiopia, $26 billion in Sri Lanka, $23.2 billion in Ghana, $10.5 billion in Senegal, $2.6 billion in Lebanon and $575.5 million in the Maldives by the same year.

The ILO further warned that the situation could deteriorate substantially by 2060 under high-emissions scenarios, with projected job losses reaching between five million and six million in Ethiopia, while annual GDP losses could rise to between $79.4 billion and $310.3 billion.

In Ghana, the Maldives and other countries covered by the studies, the long-term economic and employment consequences are also expected to intensify as temperatures continue to rise.

The findings underscore the growing threat climate change poses to the world of work, particularly in agriculture, construction, fisheries and transport, where workers are frequently exposed to extreme temperatures and have limited opportunities to avoid prolonged heat exposure.

“Every single industry and every single workplace will stand to benefit from adapting workplaces to heat stress,” Andreas Floris, lead author of the studies, said.

The studies, commissioned by the ILO with support from the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers (CVF-V20), through funding from the CVF-V20 Joint Multi-Donor Fund, provide evidence of the current and projected effects of heat stress on workers, labour markets and national economies.

They also identify policy interventions required to protect workers’ health and livelihoods, sustain enterprise productivity and strengthen national resilience against rising temperatures.

The ILO noted that the severity of heat stress is influenced not only by national climate conditions but also by the structure of economies and employment, as well as the capacity of countries to adapt to changing environmental conditions.

Speaking on the findings, Marlene Attallah, Deputy Director General, Ministry of Labour, Lebanon, cautioned against treating workplace heat protection as an unnecessary financial burden on employers.

“Protecting workers from heat stress should not be viewed as an additional burden but as an investment in workers’ health, productivity and working conditions,” she said.

Among the measures recommended by the studies are stronger occupational safety and health systems, expanded social protection, climate-resilient economic planning and workplace adaptation strategies.

The ILO also emphasised the importance of social dialogue in developing effective responses that take into account the interests and experiences of governments, employers, workers and communities affected by extreme heat.

Alpha Dia, Professor and Researcher at Senegal’s National Employers’ Council (CNP), described social dialogue as a critical instrument for addressing the emerging challenge.

“Social dialogue is our best adaptation tool to heat stress. It will protect workers while reinforcing the resilience of companies,” he said.

Similarly, Ella Frankel of the International Union of Food, Agricultural, Hotel, Restaurant, Catering, Tobacco and Allied Workers’ Association (IUF), stressed the need to ensure that workers are not forced to sacrifice their health to retain their means of livelihood.

“No worker should ever have to choose between their health and their livelihood,” she said.

The ILO said advancing a just transition and promoting decent work would be essential to helping workers and enterprises adapt to changing climate conditions without compromising health, employment and productivity.

It pointed to its Guidelines for a Just Transition towards Environmentally Sustainable Economies and Societies for All as an important policy framework for addressing the employment and social consequences of environmental and climate-related changes. (Nigerian Tribune)