The battle-line is drawn in Bayelsa State. The state is polarised ahead of next year’s general election.

Will the votes go to the All Progressives Congress (APC) or the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) during the January 16 presidential election?

One of the most outstanding Bayelsa leaders in the post-Alamieyeseigha era is Senator Seriake Dickson, a two-term governor and now the NDC National Leader.

He is fighting on two fronts. As a party leader, the presidential candidate, Peter Obi, expects him to deliver the state to his new party. The governor, Douye Diri, his long-standing associate, is not on the same page with him on this matter, following the parting of ways – politically. The godfather now has a godson to contend with.

Diri is not running in 2027. But as the state leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), he is mobilising Bayelsa for the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. This is the major bone of contention between the two political figures.

Dickson is also fighting a battle of resistance in his party. He is resisting the threats to his leadership by the restless Obedient Movement members who are trying to equate the group with the party. They owe no allegiance to the party but to their symbol, Obi, who agreed to run on the borrowed platform.

The split between Dickson and Diri is a big issue in the small Ijaw-dominated state. Dickson has accused Diri of defecting from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC. It is a case of the kettle calling the pot black. Dickson is not staying in the PDP. He had also defected. While the former governor does not see his own defection as an issue, he is portraying his godson as a betrayer. Dickson has a history of defections — from Alliance for Democracy (AD) through the PDP to the NDC. It is a way of life for politicians seeking relevance and survival.

Diri’s defection shook the state. The state chapter of the PDP became a carcass. It also jolted Dickson, who was under the illusion that he was still the overall boss, six years after vacating the Government House in Yenagoa.

While he held sway as governor, the ex-policeman and lawyer was like the alpha and omega. He was powerful and influential. He was effectively in charge. He had arranged for the late Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo to go to the Senate so that he could vacate the seat for him after completing his two terms. He, therefore, arranged for him to become Diri’s running mate in 2020.

Dickson initially bragged that he would not leave the PDP, the party that catapulted him into stardom. The party had made Bayelsa its stronghold since 1999. It produced Diepreye Alamieyeseigha as governor. After his removal, his deputy, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, filled the void. Luck smiled on Goodluck, and he became Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua’s running mate. When he became the vice-presidential candidate, Timipre Sylva became governor. He was succeeded by Dickson, who handed over to Diri, all under the PDP.

But the party later derailed. Its protracted crisis heralded a dispersal of its leading lights. The big house crumbled. Its dream of looming large for 60 years evaporated.

When reality dawned on Dickson that the ship was sinking, he jumped out. Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso are no strangers, having seen them at close quarters as chieftains of the party. But Dickson lost a loyal disciple in Governor Diri.

He vented his anger publicly. During his homecoming visit to Toru-Orua recently, Dickson accused Diri of “surrendering” and “selling” a traditional PDP stronghold to the APC for selfish ambition, allegedly. He dived into history, narrating how he helped Diri to climb the ladder of leadership. Dickson recalled that Diri was his hand-picked successor, having previously served as his Executive Secretary, Deputy Chief of Staff, House of Representatives member, and Senator. He also claimed that every member of Diri’s government he originally nurtured.

Drawing the battle line, the NDC leader declared that he and other original PDP loyalists and supporters of former President Goodluck Jonathan would work to reclaim Bayelsa from Diri.

His other grouse is that the governor had turned against those who supported his political journey. He said Diri had regressed into pettiness, propaganda, blackmail, and victimisation.

But Dickson made other claims that should be further scrutinised. He said APC never defeated him or won Bayelsa at the polls, claiming that his political influence had prevented the party from taking control of the state since 2015. The former governor only chose to mock David Lyon of the APC, who had defeated the PDP structure before the court judgment took the mandate from him because of the alleged misdeed of his running mate.

Diri and other former allies – Deputy Governor Peter Akpe and Fyneman Wilson – have refrained from responding to Dickson’s hostilities towards them. The governor has continued to acknowledge privately and publicly that Dickson is his leader and godfather. He has never traded words. He has never allowed his aides to join issues with his erstwhile boss.

But the APC, led by Diri, is planning to abort his senatorial ambition to represent Bayelsa West in next year’s poll. His rivals in the race are Fidelis Agbiki (APC), Christopher Ogola (ADC), and Onduakpo Polycarp Ebebi (PDP). With relative ease, Dickson, no doubt, a central figure in Bayelsa politics, got to office as commissioner, House of Representatives member, governor, and now senator. In 2027, he needs to work harder. The Ofurumapepe, or the Great White Shark, as his admirers fondly call him, is not finding it easy anymore.

Dickson’s networks face a great test. Facing Agbiki, a kinsman and long-standing ally, is an emotive thing. The APC is strategic in its choice.

Like Dickson, Agbiki hails from Tarakiri Kingdom. Although he is new to elective politics, he has a pedigree. He is a lawyer and journalist who once served as the Chief Press Secretary to five military governors and administrators in the old Rivers State, and Third Republic Governor Rufus Ada George. He had also worked with the Shell Petroleum Development Company, rising to become a director. He is also popular with the traditional institution.

Besides, those against Dickson include the Minister of State for Petroleum, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri. He is said to be annoyed by the zoning that aborted his return to the Senate for the third time. Dickson suggested zoning between Sagbama and Ekeremor, and it was upheld. That was how Senator Foster Ogola came into the picture.

The point Lokpobiri is making is that Dickson has served two terms, as it were, and under the zoning arrangement, it is Ekeremor’s turn to produce the senator for Bayelsa West.

The minister, in opposing Dickson, is also clearing the path for 2027. He has an unhidden ambition to be governor. If Dickson is out of the way, Lokpobiri may become the dominant figure in the district.

Dickson has assured Obi of victory in Bayelsa. The APC is also mobilising for the President. Both parties are strong in the state. A clash of strategies is imminent.

Who will triumph at the end of the race? (The Nation)