All Progressives Congress (APC) has retained its lead in the October electoral map released by the political intelligence group of Politico.ng ahead of the 2027 presidential election, with the ruling party projected to win 19 states.

The projection, presented to journalists on Friday by the leader of the group, Lai Omotola also showed the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) increasing its projected states from eight in September to 10 in October, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) dropped from nine to eight states.

Omotola said the monthly electoral map was designed to indicate areas where political parties were gaining or losing ground and should not be interpreted as a prediction of the final election result.

According to him, the map represents what the outcome could look like if the election were held in the month under review, based on political developments recorded during the period.

Explaining the changes from the September projection, Omotola said the APC, which was projected to win 20 states in September, dropped to 19 in October after losing Rivers State in the projection but gaining Adamawa State.

“The ADC, which was projected to control nine states in September, also lost Adamawa to the APC, reducing its October projection to eight states,” he said.

He said the NDC recorded a gain of two states, moving from eight in September to 10 in the October projection.

Omotola attributed the changes to political developments and activities recorded during September, including campaign mobilisation by major political parties and controversies surrounding the activities of leading opposition figures.

He cited the reported denial of access to Benue State to the NDC presidential candidate, Peter Obi, as one of the developments considered in the October assessment.

The incident has featured prominently in public debate over the campaign activities of opposition parties ahead of the 2027 elections.

The group lead also listed President Bola Tinubu’s working vacation and the debate surrounding his absence from the country among the developments considered in the assessment.

He further cited former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar’s continued criticism of the Federal Government’s economic policies, including his position on fuel subsidy, as part of the political developments monitored during the month.

On campaign activities, Omotola said the APC appeared to have recorded the highest level of mobilisation nationwide, followed by the NDC.

He, however, said the NDC was yet to constitute a presidential campaign council, while the ADC had constituted its presidential campaign council but was yet to embark on what the group described as major nationwide campaigns.

The projection also identified political disagreements involving Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, and APC governors as among the developments that could influence the political landscape.

Omotola cautioned that the October map should not be regarded as the final outcome of the 2027 presidential election, stressing that the projection was based on the assumption of a free and fair election.

He said the purpose of the monthly exercise was to provide political parties with an indication of their areas of strength and weakness as they intensified their campaigns.

The October projection therefore puts the APC at 19 states, the NDC at 10 and the ADC at eight states.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has scheduled the presidential and National Assembly elections for February 20, 2027. (Tribune)