As political realignments ahead of the 2027 general elections continue to reshape Nigeria’s political scene, the growing involvement of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Nyesom Wike, in All Progressives Congress, APC, affairs, has continued to generate debate. In this interview, political scientist and public affairs analyst, Prof. Odion Akhaine, examines Wike’s political manoeuvring, the proposed Rainbow Coalition, the reaction of APC governors, the implications for President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 ambitions, and the wider challenges facing Nigeria’s democracy and political parties. He argues that while political alliances are not unusual, Wike’s involvement in the internal affairs of the APC must be carefully managed by Tinubu.

Nyesom Wike has consistently maintained that his relationship with President Bola Tinubu is based on his support for the President and his 2027 ambition, and the manner in which he has pursued this relationship, particularly his involvement in opposition realignment and the proposed Rainbow Coalition, appears to be unsettling some APC leaders and governors. Does this not leave President Tinubu with a difficult choice in managing his relationship with Wike without creating further tension within the APC?

For the politicians in our environment, public good is not sacred. Personal interest is sacred for them. That is why Wike can abandon his party and get involved in another political party’s affairs. And he is trying to control the party, which, in the Nigerian parlance, gave him the “opportunity to chop.” Another positive side of Wike was that he made it possible for a Southern president to emerge. When Southern governors, including Okowa, supported a non-Southerner, Wike stood solidly behind a Southern presidency. That was the basis upon which he was brought to serve in the APC government under President Tinubu. But he appears to be overreaching himself. Even within the patrimonial politics that Nigerian politicians play, you would expect that he should confine himself to supporting the President and maintain his stronghold, which is Rivers State. Now, what he is trying to do, which is the Rainbow Coalition comprising some opposition parties, is being seen by APC governors as not being in their best interests.

Rainbow Coalition

Trying to build the Rainbow Coalition, thinking that the ruling party will sink itself in it, will not work. If you read the body language of the governors of the ruling party, they are in no way going to tolerate external infusion into the party’s politics. We have to watch it very carefully, because whatever you say about Nigerian politics, governors are the leaders of the party in their various states. And they have control over the electoral process. You ignore them at your own peril. That is why the intrusion of Wike must be carefully managed so that it doesn’t affect the party. My advice to Wike is that, since he is supporting the President, his constituency is not Nigeria. His constituency, where he has allies, is Rivers State. He should secure Rivers State for the President. He must have also built some structures in Abuja. He should use the goodwill to win the election for Mr. President. For me, that should be his focus, and not to dictate the dynamics of APC internal politics. That should be a no-go area for him. The President must be careful and know how to manage this Wike issue.

Some APC supporters are already kicking that Wike won’t be allowed to destroy APC the way he destroyed PDP. It is very clear that a person who is not a member of your party, no matter what you say or how idiotic members of that party are, it is wrong to allow an outsider to dictate the content and processes of the party. They are very right in the opposition they have taken.

Wike should stay off. APC members and their leaders would have their way at the end of the day. He doesn’t have the power to cocoon them into his own private agenda or his personal agenda as far as 2027 is concerned. Of course, disorderliness is part of the political process, especially in the Third World, but is it acceptable for Wike to be in his own party and be getting involved in the affairs of another party? I think that Wike’s behaviour smacks of opportunism. And it is the nature of party politics in Nigeria. I have argued in my book, Political Power in Nigeria, that we don’t have political parties in Nigeria. What we have are special-purpose vehicles that people use to pursue the goal of power. That is why a party member can dispense with his own party, destroy the cohesion within his party because the party, for him and others of his mindset, is a special-purpose vehicle to get to power. So, they can destroy it and set up another special-purpose vehicle. And that is the way politicians behave in Nigeria. You can’t tie them to a particular ideological orientation. You cannot even talk about pragmatism. The compass for them is self-interest, which is tied to primitive acquisition of resources.

With the problem localised, how can it be resolved?

It is two ways. Kwame Nkrumah said organisation decides everything. If you don’t have organisation, you don’t have it. And if you don’t have organisation, you can hardly achieve anything that is fruitful. Society is not built on the basis of individual intentions, goodwill or wishes. You must work within the collective to achieve the goal of the society. That understanding calls for a new generation of Nigerians who must try to build parties and learn from parties like the African National Congress, ANC, in South Africa, which was formed in 1912 and is still the ruling party today.

So, they must learn how to build parties that have a clear ideological roadmap and are tied to the emancipation of the people. The National Assembly has tried to come up with some laws to ensure that a defecting lawmaker loses his seat. Institutions of the state must be able to exercise autonomy. The judiciary must be tough without looking in the eyes of politicians and rule in favour of the continuity of the state.

The judiciary has not been forthcoming on this. The failure of institutions to be firm is the reason people jump from one party to the other. We still need those regulations and moral advocacy in terms of building enduring parties that can deliver public good. In terms of what Wike is doing regarding his relationship with APC, should such precedent be emulated?

Party validation is actually built on alliance. Alliance is fostered by similarity of programmes. Now, the Nigerian contradiction is that alliance is not built on programmes. It is built on personal interest. Wike is not the first person to do what he is doing, except that he is loud. Bola Ige joined Obasanjo and became the Attorney-General of the Federation. But that was more of bipartisanship…

Yes, we are saying the same thing. It wasn’t Alliance for Democracy, AD, that Ige joined Obasanjo. Some felt that, since he had a reputation, his presence would add credibility to the government. But Obasanjo had his own aim, which was to undermine the AD. Wike also subverted his own party to disrupt northern inclination to power when, understandably, power had to go to the South. It was also driven by self-interest.

Associating with the ruling party is pursuit of self-interest. It is survival within the political environment. We cannot encourage opportunism. We can also not discourage building alliances for the benefit of programmes.

Lately, threatening utterances by leaders of APC to members of their constituencies on whom to support are becoming a growing obstacle to the right of the people to choose their leaders. How can this be addressed?

The quality of Nigerian democracy has gone down considerably. In political science, we talk about backsliding. This situation, in concrete terms, can be traced to the beginning of the Third Republic. I recall that Obasanjo, at the time, said politics was a do-or-die affair. What we are experiencing now is a fallout of that. The real tragedy is that Nigeria parades the worst elites any country can produce. We are not running the country with our first eleven, as Bishop Matthew Kukah said, but with our tenth eleven. We saw the hate speech in Osun. Edo has also become a laughing stock under the current leadership because all the people working with the man are also very pedestrian. We saw what Obi was subjected to in Edo. If we must have free and fair elections, this trend should be moderated. (Sunday Vanguard)