Former Bayelsa governor and serving senator for Bayelsa West, Henry Seriake Dickson, is a central figure in the state’s politics. He first came to prominence in 1999, when he led the Alliance for Democracy to victory in the Bayelsa West senatorial seat and the Sagbama/Ekeremor House of Representatives seat. He has since served as Commissioner for Justice and Attorney-General, as a member of the House of Representatives, and as governor on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Popularly known as Ofurumapepe, or the Great White Shark, Dickson has built a network that runs through all eight local government areas of the state. A number of prominent politicians now in the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), in Sagbama, Ekeremor and beyond, began their careers under him.

Ahead of 2027, that network faces its stiffest test since the 2015 governorship election. At the national level, Dickson must lead his Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) against the ruling APC and the African Democratic Congress (ADC). At home, he must hold Bayelsa West against old rivals and former allies who have crossed over.

On paper the seat should be his. Three developments have complicated that picture; the defection of Governor Douye Diri to the APC, the death of former deputy governor Senator Lawrence Ehwrudjakpo, and the emergence of Chief Fidelis Agbiki as the APC candidate for Bayelsa West.

Dickson won the seat in 2020 and retained it in 2023. On both occasions most of the district’s political stakeholders lined up behind him. He faced different opponents from Ekeremor each time and won heavily, weakening the argument that the National Assembly seats should rotate between Sagbama and Ekeremor.

The first hurdle is Agbiki himself, a kinsman and long-standing ally. The APC’s choice was strategic. Like Dickson, Agbiki comes from Tarakiri Kingdom, which has produced several influential figures in Bayelsa West.

Some have questioned the candidacy on the grounds that Agbiki has not held any elective office. His supporters point instead to his record. He trained as a lawyer and made his name as a broadcast journalist at the Nigerian Television Authority. He later served as chief press secretary to five military governors and administrators in the old Rivers State, and to the second civilian governor of that state, Chief Rufus Ada George.

Agbiki then moved to the private sector, joining Shell Petroleum Development Company and rising to directorate level. While at Shell he is credited with facilitating the first hostel at the Niger Delta University, Amassoma, the first legislative quarters at Azikoro in Yenagoa, and the refurbishment of the gas turbine built under Chief Melford Okilo. That turbine served Yenagoa and parts of Ogbia until successive state administrations allowed its operations to decline.

He also has standing in the community. When the late king, Pere Richardford Orukari Bai Koroye, died, Agbiki served as regent of Tarakiri Kingdom and oversaw the transition that produced the current king, Seiyefa Koroye.

Some observers argue that Agbiki is the one figure capable of standing against Dickson. Others counter that he lacks comparable political experience, and that a senatorial contest is not decided on record alone. A view repeated in some quarters is that Dickson himself would have backed Agbiki had he not been in the race.

The second challenge comes from the Minister of State for Petroleum, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri. He has old scores to settle. It was Dickson, as governor, who blocked Lokpobiri’s bid for a third Senate term after his win in 2007 and 2011. In 2015, Dickson convened a rally in Sagbama, attended by stakeholders from both Sagbama and Ekeremor, which passed a resolution affirming rotation of the Senate and House seats between the two areas. He then used the powers of his office to mobilise support and squeeze Lokpobiri out of the PDP primaries, clearing the way for Senator Foster Ogola.

Lokpobiri now has the chance to return the favour. He served two Senate terms, the first completing the tenure of the late Senator Lawrence Ehwrudjakpo. He and the APC leadership argue that, under the zoning arrangement, it is Ekeremor’s turn to produce the senator for Bayelsa West. Sources say he is ready to campaign hard to stop Dickson.

There is more at stake for him than an old grievance. Lokpobiri has been linked with a run for the governorship in 2027. Unseating the NDC’s national leader on his home turf would strengthen his claim to be the dominant politician in the area. A Dickson victory would damage it. The two men are, in effect, already shadow boxing over Bayelsa West.

A third group ranged against Dickson is made up of former allies. It includes Diri, his deputy, Dr Peter Akpe, his former right-hand man, Fyneman Wilson, and several other proteges. No one has identified a clear grievance between Diri and Dickson. Some observers believe the governor simply wants to establish his own authority without openly breaking with the man he still regards as his benefactor.

His move to the APC has strained the relationship, but he is unlikely to confront Dickson directly and will probably leave that to others. Dickson’s defeat would free Diri from his shadow and confirm him as the state’s undisputed political leader. Whether Diri has the appetite for such a fight remains an open question.

Akpe, Wilson and other proteges have said in various forums that they were the backbone of Dickson’s political family. The 2027 election gives them a chance to prove it. Since taking office, Akpe has made it clear that he intends to use his influence and lead political battles of his own. He has been named in moves against open and quiet supporters of Dickson in Bayelsa West and elsewhere in the state.

Wilson, who recently accused Dickson of running the NDC as a one-man show, has vowed to see him out of the Senate. The aim, on that side, is to show that Dickson’s new allies cannot deliver the district without them.

Dickson is aware of the forces lining up against him. In a recent statement to the people of Bayelsa West, he acknowledged the opposition and said he was unbowed.

“I am also aware of people whom I raised and supported throughout my life to serve our people, only for them to turn around and weaponise the instruments of government, sack people from office, victimise innocent citizens, spread unfounded propaganda, and repay the good I did for them, their families, and their communities with wickedness and evil,” he said.

“Yet all the propaganda, incitement, persecution, falsehood, and wickedness directed against me, my family, my community, and my steadfast supporters and friends for almost seven years, without reason or justification, have not swayed you. Despite it all, you have persevered. You have remained resolute, and you have not buckled. Even without seeing me at home, you heard about and saw my involvement in the NDC; you joined and supported me. God, man, and history will be kind to you all.”

He added: “In the coming weeks, I will return home with our able National Chairman, Senator Moses Cleopas, to interact with you and thank you all personally, as I have always done, for your support, loyalty, and prayers. Get ready for non-violent politics; the politics of ideas, which I have consistently championed throughout my public life.

“To those whose stock-in-trade is to threaten and intimidate, weaponise government and public institutions against their own people, and sow violence in our communities instead of engaging and serving them with dedication, as we have done, once again, they will be put to shame.

“Our young people, women, community leaders, and all people of goodwill will be mobilised and sensitised to resist violence and intimidation, to turn out in their numbers to peacefully vote out those who oppress, ill-treat, and betray their trust, and to defend and protect their votes. For those who may have forgotten because of time and the luxury of power, let them be reminded that I am one politician who has seen it all; one who has survived false allegations and propaganda for almost 20 years: failed Commission of Inquiry; failed Assembly probes; failed federal investigations; failed federal-might takeovers; intimidation, envy and conspiracy by senior leaders, and still triumphed in office and after office.”

An NDC chieftain and youth leader in the state, Ebilade Ekerefe, said in an interview that the contest was already settled. “There is no contest in Bayelsa West. Senator Dickson is too important for the Ijaw nation to be replaced. As far as Bayelsa West is concerned, Senator Seriake Dickson would win overwhelmingly because all the political leaders, even those in the APC who are products of his grooming and who owe their political trajectory to him, owe him a duty to support him. There is no contest.”

Asked about the realignment led by Wilson and the influence of Akpe, Ekerefe said those involved owed Dickson too much to work against him.

“These are people Senator Dickson brought into political prominence. It would be an act of ingratitude if they would stand against that very man who has played a significant role in their political lives. Even those working with the deputy governor are saying they are only there because of what they want to benefit from the system; they have said they cannot look Senator Dickson in the face and vote against him.

“Senator Dickson is the only Ijaw man in the current political dispensation that is making the Ijaw nation proud at the national level. So, we won’t allow him to be shortchanged because of petty politics at the local level. People understand the dynamics of this political game, and I can assure you that nobody would be willing to sacrifice Senator Henry Seriake Dickson because of politics that would not serve the interest of Bayelsa West and the Ijaw nation.”

Neither camp is short of confidence. What is not in doubt is that Bayelsa West in 2027 will be the hardest contest of Dickson’s career. (The Sun)