In the shadows of Nigeria’s mounting political uncertainty, a new plot is quietly taking shape, one that could define the 2027 presidential election.

Spearheaded by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the anti-Tinubu alliance, reportedly involving other prominent figures like Peter Obi, Nasir el-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi, is scrambling for a viable political platform amid the lingering internal fractures in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party.

However, amid the internal implosion and unstable state of opposition parties in the country since the 2023 general election, the opposition coalition has been searching for a credible political platform to actualise its plan.

After initial romance with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), however, events in the last few weeks have shown that the party may not be a credible platform for the coalition to float its kit. With reports indicating that the party has been infiltrated by agents of the ruling party.

Amid media reports, sources in the coalition revealed to BusinessDay that the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a party long dismissed as fringe, is now being courted by the opposition political heavyweights determined to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

Why ADC?

Initially, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) was tipped as the coalition’s special purpose vehicle (SPV), but internal resistance and the perceived influence of Tinubu within the party forced a rethink. Olu Agunloye, the SDP’s national secretary, made it clear that the party would not entertain external takeovers or merger proposals, dousing any hope of collaboration.

The ADC, on the other hand, saw an opportunity and moved quickly to court the coalition. The party is already tweaking its internal structures, including amending its constitution, to offer equal rights and privileges to new entrants, in a bid to present itself as a neutral and accommodating platform.

However, not everyone within the ADC is on board. Long-time party veterans, wary of losing influence, are reportedly gearing up for a showdown with the incoming political juggernauts who could upend the existing power balance.

Founded in 2001, the ADC has largely been a peripheral player on Nigeria’s political landscape. In the 2019 general elections, it secured just three National Assembly seats and two state legislative seats in Oyo. But now, the party is flirting with national relevance, at a high cost.

Its internal divisions may, ironically, prove more debilitating than the troubles plaguing PDP and Labour. Ahead of the 2023 election, the ADC suspended its presidential candidate, Dumebi Kachikwu, a decision later reversed by Patricia Akwashiki, who claimed to be leading an interim faction. The party has not recovered from that chaos.

The leadership crisis has dragged on, with founding chairman, Ralph Nwosu, refusing to step down after two decades at the helm. The party’s Supreme Court case over who holds legitimate authority has been pending since 2022.

Legal wrangles

The ADC is currently split between two factions, one led by Nwosu and another by Kingsley Ogga. The Ogga-led faction has taken legal action to block any merger discussions with other parties. In a statement issued last Friday in Abuja, Ogga warned the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) against recognising the Nwosu-led group in any merger negotiations.

To enforce its stance, the Ogga camp has filed a fresh lawsuit before Justice Omotosho of the Abuja Federal High Court, seeking an injunction to restrain INEC from endorsing any merger until the Supreme Court resolves the chairmanship dispute.

The road to 2027

With the PDP and Labour Party still knee-deep in their own leadership crises, the coalition seeking to oust Tinubu is running out of time, and viable platforms.

The ADC battered but willing remains a tempting but risky option. For now, the coalition’s grand plans may rest on whether the ADC can resolve its own existential turmoil, or implode under the weight of the very ambition that might have revived it. But the party is preparing and gearing up for the task ahead.

The ADC has commenced a country-wide consultation to position the party and deepen coalition integration ahead of the 2027 general elections.

According to the party, the consultation, which is expected to take place across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), is a grassroots movement to make the party visible across the country. (BusinessDay)