The decision by Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani, to pick Jerry Adams, a Christian from Southern Kaduna as his running mate for the 2027 governorship election has opened a fresh political debate in the state.

The choice marks a return to the Muslim-Christian arrangement that largely characterised Kaduna politics since the return to democracy in 1999. It also reverses the same-faith ticket introduced by former Governor Nasir El-Rufai after the death of his deputy, Barnabas Bala, popularly known as Bantex.

El-Rufai had selected Hadiza Balarabe, a Muslim from Sanga Local Government Area in Southern Kaduna, as his running mate and defended the decision as a political strategy, arguing that the All Progressives Congress (APC) needed to improve its position in Southern Kaduna, where it had struggled politically.

The same arrangement continued when Uba Sani became governor in 2023, with Balarabe serving as his running mate and later deputy governor. But with her constitutional limit of two terms approaching, Sani has now returned to the old formula by choosing Adams from the Moroa (Marwa) ethnic group in Kaura Local Government Area of the state.

Politically, the decision appears to have strengthened the APC’s appeal in Southern Kaduna, a region that has traditionally been associated with opposition parties.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) performed strongly in the zone in the 2023 elections, while the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi, also secured significant support there.

The fresh challenge for the APC is woven around whether the new ticket can change the political calculation in the region.

However, the governor’s decision has not been welcomed by everybody, particularly in parts of Northern Kaduna where some Muslim voters believe the APC should have retained the Muslim-Muslim arrangement.

A resident of Sabon Garin Tudun Wada, Bello Idris, said the governor may have miscalculated by abandoning the same-faith ticket.

he said, “The decision will affect the governor’s votes, especially in the northern part of the state that supported the same-faith ticket. It was the same strategy that was used to win the last election, but the governor changed it because he wanted more votes from Southern Kaduna.”

He argued that the northern zone has a larger voting population and advised the governor to maintain the arrangement, just as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has retained a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket.

The ethnic dimension

Although Adams is from Southern Kaduna, some residents argue that he does not come from one of the larger voting groups in the region. His Moroa community in Kaura is smaller than groups such as the Bajju, Atyap, Ikulu and Kamanton.

A Southern Kaduna resident, who does not want to be named said it would be difficult for Adams to receive total support from the Bajju people because Irmiya Kantiok, the running mate to Isa Ashiru Kudan, the ADC govenorship candidate, is also from the Bajju ethnic group.

“You cannot tell me that the Bajju people will abandon their son for another person simply because they are from the same zone,” he said.

However, political editor and chairman of the Southern Kaduna Journalists Forum, Ango Bally, disagreed with the argument that political support in the region should be based strictly on population.

He said the people of Zangon Kataf, regarded as the political headquarters of Southern Kaduna, believe in equity and fairness.

“Our people believe in equity. We believe other people from other tribes within the zone can also hold positions, just as our people have held other political positions,” Bally said.

He said Adams has political capital and appeal across different age groups in Southern Kaduna despite the fact that Kantiok is equally from the zone.

Bally also pointed out that the late Bantex, who served as El-Rufai’s deputy, came from Kaura, the same local government as Adams. He argued that Bantex’s performance demonstrated that Southern Kaduna voters could support a candidate outside the dominant tribes if the person had political appeal.

The changing religious dimension

The political question now is whether Uba Sani’s new ticket can achieve the delicate balance between Southern and Northern Kaduna.

Some observers say the Governor appears to be betting that a Christian running mate will rebuild trust in Southern Kaduna without completely losing the Muslim electorate in the north.

Kaduna political analyst Haruna Ibrahim Nasarawa said El-Rufai believed there were ethnic and religious sentiments against his government in Southern Kaduna that was why he adopted the same-faith ticket as a political strategy.

But he said Sani’s administration had presented itself as one based on inclusiveness.

“That is why, when the opportunity came, he picked Jerry Adams from the southern part of the state,” he said.

Nasarawa acknowledged that the decision could affect the APC in Northern Kaduna, where some voters preferred the previous arrangement.

Curiously, some Muslim voices have also welcomed the governor’s decision.

Sheikh Asadus-Sunna, in a video clip seen by this reporter, argued that there was nothing wrong with choosing a Christian running mate.

He said,“We are not supposed to choose leaders because of religion. What Nigerians need now is a leader who will govern with justice, regardless of where he comes from.”

This argument echoes the position of former adviser to two Kaduna governors, Haliru Maraya, who had warned against same-faith governorship tickets in religiously diverse states such as Kaduna.

Maraya said Kaduna had historically maintained religious balance by producing governors and deputies of different faiths.

“Since 1999, Kaduna State has always produced candidates with different religious beliefs. That display of justice has gone a long way to ensure togetherness and a sense of belonging in the state,” he said.

He cited the administrations of Ahmed Makarfi, Namadi Sambo, Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa and Ramalan Yero, during which governors and their deputies came from different religious backgrounds.

Maraya argued that such arrangements helped promote a sense of inclusion among Kaduna’s diverse communities.

A lecturer in one of the state’s owned territory institution Akilu Zubair claimed that no doubt the decision by the governor to pick Christian runing mate has angered some electorates from the northern part of the state who saw nothing wrong with the previous arrangement of same faith ticket which may affect the rulling party’s votes.

“Such people may have not benefited directly from the same faith ticket but still want the arrangement to continue because it was introduced to them,” he said

Analysts are of the view that the 2027 election will test whether Kaduna voters are moving away from religious and ethnic calculations towards performance, inclusion and competence or whether those factors will continue to determine voting patterns in the state. (Daily Trust)