The Executive Director of #FixPolitics Africa, Anthony Ubani, has expressed worry over developments leading up to Nigeria’s next general election, asserting that the country is drifting towards another dangerous electoral moment.

Ubani’s worry stems from the ruling party’s ‘confidence’ in winning the 2027 general election, especially the President’s, despite widespread complaints of hardship under the All Progressives Congress-led government.

Added to his concern is the European Union’s alleged withdrawal from observing the election because of insecurity or hostile treatment.

But the EU clarified that it would participate through a much smaller Electoral Expert Mission of between two and four experts.

According to the Abuja-based leadership and governance expert, the controversy over the EU’s role in the 2027 general election is only the latest warning.

In 2023, he noted, the EU deployed about 110 observers across Nigeria, adding, “In 2027, it plans to send only a handful of experts. The EU says the size and format of its missions depend on circumstances and available resources. Fair enough.

“But the bigger story is that Nigeria is walking into 2027 with the credibility of its electoral system still badly damaged. The ghost of 2023 still hangs over the Independent National Electoral Commission.”

The 2023 election, which was supposed to mark a technological break with Nigeria’s ugly electoral past with the introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the INEC Result Viewing Portal, was also flawed like previous ones.

Ubani lamented, “Then election day came. The EU’s final report spoke of serious systemic weaknesses, operational failures and shortcomings that damaged public trust in INEC. It issued 23 recommendations. When the EU returned in 2025 to assess Nigeria’s response, only one had been fully implemented. One. That should embarrass a country preparing for another presidential election.

“Nigeria has since enacted a new Electoral Act with stronger provisions for electronic transmission of results. Weak as the reforms in the Act are, it is still considered progress. But Nigeria has never suffered mainly from a shortage of laws. We suffer from a shortage of obedience to laws. So, the central question in 2027 will not be what the Electoral Act says; it will be whether INEC obeys it when the stakes are highest.”

The expert points to another problem Nigerians have normalised for too long. The President, who may be a candidate in the election, plays a central role in appointing the chairman of INEC, which he sees as a structural problem.

While not trying to accuse the INEC chairman, he said the issue “is bigger than any individual.”

He noted that Nigerians were increasingly abandoning the ballot box. “Presidential election turnout has collapsed from more than half of registered voters in 2011 to about 27 per cent in 2023. That should terrify anyone who cares about democracy. Many citizens disengage because they no longer believe the system respects their vote.

“This is why Dele Farotimi’s warning that 2027 risks becoming a ‘procession to a coronation’ resonates. It captures a fear already spreading: that political power is becoming so concentrated, and incumbency so overwhelming, that the election itself risks becoming a formality.”

Some supporters of President Bola Tinubu have also used the language of “coronation”, a language that should offend every democrat.

For Ubani, if Nigeria gets 2027 wrong, the damage will go beyond who occupies Aso Rock. He said, “Another deeply disputed election could further destroy citizens’ faith in democratic government itself. When people stop trusting elections, they eventually stop trusting democracy.

“But there is still time. Citizens and civil society must stop waiting for election day before becoming interested in the election. INEC must be pressured to publicly stress-test BVAS and IReV. Transmission procedures must be clear and auditable. Domestic observers must be massively deployed. Polling unit results must be independently archived. Vote buying must be exposed. Security agencies must be watched. Political parties must train competent agents. The media must resist becoming either government propaganda machines or opposition echo chambers.”

While asserting that foreign observers could watch Nigeria fail, he urged Tinubu to understand the difference between winning an election and earning a legitimate mandate.

“A credible victory strengthens a president, while a disputed victory follows him everywhere.

“INEC should understand that Nigerians owe it no automatic trust after 2023, as trust is not a press statement but earned through conduct. Nigeria is neither condemned to a bad election nor entitled to a good one. The next general election can still be rescued, only if citizens refuse to sleepwalk into it,” he said, adding that when election day comes, “Nigerians must be choosing a president not attending a coronation.”