On paper, Saturday’s governorship election in Osun State sets the stage for mass citizen participation, boasting a roll of over 2.3 million registered voters. However, the state’s history of apathy, coupled with rising political violence and threats ahead of the poll, is raising fresh concerns that many registered voters may stay away from the ballot box.

Fifteen political parties have been cleared to contest the election, which will be held across 3,763 polling units in 30 local government areas, with incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke seeking a second term.

Yet despite the increase in voter registration, participation has steadily declined across successive governorship elections, raising questions about whether the latest poll can reverse the trend.

In 2022, almost two million voters were registered, but only 42.09 percent turned out to vote, the lowest turnout recorded in Osun’s governorship election history.

Since the state was created in 1991, eight governorship elections, including the court-ordered 2010 rerun, have been conducted. Turnout has crossed the 50 percent threshold only twice.

In 2003, turnout stood at 54.42 percent, while the 2014 election recorded 54.17 percent. Participation subsequently declined to 45.74 percent in 2018 before falling further in 2022.

Although the 2022 election produced the highest number of registered voters and the largest absolute number of ballots cast in the state’s governorship elections, turnout as a proportion of registered voters continued to decline.

Analysts say the pattern reflects deeper problems around public confidence in elections, violence, voter intimidation and limited political awareness, particularly in rural communities.

This year, security concerns have assumed greater prominence as political campaigns have become increasingly hostile.

Reports of attacks involving supporters of rival political parties have raised fears that violence could suppress participation, particularly among voters who may be unwilling to risk their safety for a political contest.

Adeleke has accused the All Progressives Congress of using federal influence to intimidate and arrest members of his Accord Party. His administration has also alleged that security agencies are being used against opposition supporters.

More than 30 people have reportedly been killed in politically related violence across the state, while political actors have continued to issue inflammatory statements despite a peace accord signed by parties contesting the election.

The controversy intensified after a video emerged in which Francis Fadahunsi, a senator representing Osun East Senatorial District, appeared to urge supporters to “kill” members of the rival Accord Party.

he senator has since said his comments were misinterpreted, while the Osun State Police Command invited him for questioning.

The development has reinforced concerns that political rhetoric could translate into violence at a time when authorities are trying to reassure voters that the election will be peaceful.

‘Election is not war’

For some candidates and residents, however, the threats should not become a reason for voters to abandon the electoral process.

Olufemi Adesuyi, the Zenith Labour Party governorship candidate, said security concerns could affect turnout if not properly addressed, but expressed confidence in the capacity of security agencies to protect voters, candidates and electoral officials.

“My message to the people of Osun State is simple: do not be afraid, but remain vigilant. Come out peacefully, vote according to your conscience, and return home peacefully,” he said.

“Election is not war. We must protect the peace of Osun State while exercising our democratic rights.”

Olusegun Olasunkanmi, an Osun Central senatorial aspirant on the Accord Party platform, also said the reports of violence should concern every responsible citizen but should not discourage peaceful participation.

He identified insecurity as the biggest potential threat to turnout, alongside logistical problems, transportation difficulties and delays on election day.

“Elections will come and go, but Osun State and its people will remain,” he said, urging political actors to reject violence.

Babatunde Dosu, chairman of the Ijesa South Campaign Council under the Accord Party, told members of the party and the entire people of Ijesaland on Thursday to troop out and overwhelmingly vote for Governor Ademola Adeleke for a second term in office.

He said, “It is of paramount importance to the people of Ijesa South Federal Constituency, which comprises llesa East, llesa West, Atakumosa East, and Atakumosa West and indeed, the entire citizenry of Osun, that they exercise their franchise and make their choice known as regards who governs them beyond 2026.”

According to Dosu, who doubles as the commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs in the state, “The Federal Government has approved the deployment of 10 security personnel per polling unit. This is a substantial measure designed to provide maximum protection for voters, electoral officials, and election materials across the four Local Government Areas of our constituency.

“The Federal Government has given the security forces a clear mandate to deal decisively with any individual or group attempting to cause mayhem or disrupt the electoral process.”

He urged the public to disregard any threats from any individual, “no matter how highly placed.”

Dosu added, “The security services are fully prepared to ensure a free, fair, and credible election, and the full weight of the law will be brought to bear on any troublemakers.”

Meanwhile, Kola Olabisi, the director of Media and Information, Osun APC, who spoke on the readiness of the party ahead of the poll, said: “The people of the state are fully ready to change the narrative to flush out the administration of Governor Ademola Adeleke on Saturday.”

Residents divided

Among residents, however, the security situation has produced mixed reactions.

Olowu Emmanuel, executive director of Socio-Economic and Civil Rights Advocacy, said he would vote despite the threats, arguing that intimidation could be intended to discourage voters.

“I will vote because I am sure that all the intimidation is just a threat to cause voters to be afraid and invariably cause voter apathy,” he said.

He said he felt sufficiently safe to visit his polling unit and had not noticed signs of voter apathy in his community.

Babatunde Lawal, another resident, said security concerns would not prevent him from voting for his preferred candidate. He said he felt safe partly because he would not openly display his political affiliation.

But Bola Olayode said the reports of violence and threatening statements had made her reconsider participating in the election.

She identified security as her biggest concern, although she acknowledged that the deployment of security personnel could reassure voters.

The contrasting reactions underline the uncertainty surrounding Saturday’s turnout: while some voters see participation as a civic responsibility that should not be surrendered to intimidation, others view the growing political tension as a reason to stay away.

A group, the council of the Wise of the Savannah Centre for Diplomacy, Democracy and Development, has warned political actors and security agencies against allowing violence to undermine the election.

The council, led by former chief justice of Nigeria Olukayode Ariwoola, called on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and security agencies to ensure that voters can cast their ballots freely and safely.

Speaking at a press conference in Abuja on Thursday, Ariwoola, who was represented, said the council was concerned about what it described as disturbing and undemocratic developments in the state.

Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the NDC, also appealed for calm, urging residents not to allow political differences to destroy the state.

“The people of Osun must be allowed to vote freely, safely, and without intimidation. Their votes must be counted transparently, protected faithfully, and announced according to the genuine will of the electorate. Nigeria is bigger than any candidate, and Osun is greater than any political party,” he said in a statement on Thursday.

Meanwhile, security preparations have been stepped up ahead of the election.

Olatunji Disu, inspector-general of Police, has deployed Ishyaku Mohammed, deputy inspector-general of Police, to Osun to coordinate the police component of the election security operation and work with other security agencies.

The deployment is aimed at strengthening coordination and ensuring that voters, candidates, electoral officials and election materials are adequately protected.

Yiaga Africa has also expressed concern that the prevailing political tension could discourage voters from exercising their franchise.

At a pre-election press conference in Osogbo on Thursday, Asmau Maikudi, chair of the Osun Election Observation Mission, said preparations for the election were broadly on track but warned that the credibility of the process would ultimately depend on the performance of INEC on election day.

The challenge for the electoral commission and security agencies is therefore twofold: securing the physical integrity of the election while restoring enough confidence for registered voters to turn out. (BusinessDay)