The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) has warned that the global ambition to achieve universal education by 2030 may be unrealistic, as about 272 million children, adolescents, and youths remain out of school, with the number rising for a seventh consecutive year.

UNESCO, in its latest Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Report on Access and Equity, which reviewed global progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4 and tracked countries’ performance against international education commitments, blamed the failure on the system’s inability to deliver on successive global education goals.

“The three major global education agenda increased levels of ambition faster than education systems could expand, promising universal access to primary education in 1990, universal completion of primary education in 2000, and universal completion of secondary education in 2015. Not even the first would have been achieved by 2030,” the report stated.

Despite significant gains in access, with 1.4 billion students now in school worldwide, the agency noted that exclusion remains widespread and persistent.

The report showed that there are 327 million more students in schools today than in 2000, with a 30 per cent increase in enrolment.

However, it noted that the number of out-of-school children, adolescents, and youth has risen by three per cent since 2015, reaching 273 million in 2024.

This, it added, showed that one in six children, adolescents, and youth worldwide are excluded from education.

The report warned that the figure may be higher when accounting for conflict-affected regions, estimating that the population is undercounted by at least 13 million if supplementary information from humanitarian sources is used to correct data gaps in the 10 countries most affected.

The GEM Report, the first in a three-part countdown to 2030 series, focused on access and equity, stressing that progress in education has become increasingly difficult as countries move from expanding enrolment to sustaining completion and quality.

“Many countries have achieved significant reforms, including legal and policy frameworks that promote inclusion, reduce barriers to schooling, and support disadvantaged groups. However, global education progress is now slowing, particularly since 2015, even as expectations continue to rise.”

On completion rates, the report said that although there were improvements, they remain insufficient to guarantee universal secondary education in the foreseeable future.

Since 2000, it stated that the completion rate has increased from 77 per cent to 88 per cent in primary; from 60 per cent to 78 per cent in lower secondary, and from 37 per cent to 61 per cent in upper secondary.

“However, at current rates of expansion, the world would achieve 95 per cent upper secondary completion by 2105.”

The report highlighted persistent inequalities, particularly in low-income countries where children are more likely to start school late and repeat grades, delaying completion and widening disparities.

UNESCO’s Director-General, Khaled El-Enany, described the findings as alarming, but noted that progress made since 2000 proves that change is still possible.

He said: “This report confirmed an alarming trend, with more and more young people deprived of education around the world each year. However, there is hope,” he said.

Director of GEM Report, Manos Antoninis, emphasised that future global targets must reflect national realities rather than impose uniform expectations.

“National targets must be both ambitious and rooted in what is genuinely achievable. Global targets should then be the sum of these commitments, not the other way around,” he said.

The launch brought together education ministers and policymakers from across the world to discuss policy responses to widening access gaps.

UNESCO said the findings should serve as a warning to governments and development partners that without accelerated action, the world risks missing its most important education targets for another generation, even as millions of children remain locked out of classrooms. (The Guardian)