Bandit groups displaced by recent military operations in northwest Nigeria are expanding their footprint into new territories, including parts of Kano State and potentially the country’s southwest corridor, raising fresh concerns about the geographic spread of rural insecurity.

This is according to the latest SBM Intelligence West Africa Security and Political Economy report, made available to BusinessDay.

Security intelligence gathered from the report, covering 6 to 12 March 2026, indicates that remnants of bandit networks previously operating in Zamfara and Katsina are beginning to move into new operational areas, particularly around Rogo Local Government Area of Kano State. The movement is believed to be linked to sustained military pressure on established bandit camps in parts of Katsina and Zamfara, forcing smaller factions to disperse and seek new bases of operation.

SBM analysts note in the report that these groups are increasingly abandoning large camps and instead operating in smaller, mobile units to evade detection and reduce the risk of air strikes. The smaller cells are believed to be establishing temporary hideouts in forest corridors and targeting isolated rural communities for kidnappings and ransom collection.

“The Rogo–Karaye boundary may emerge as a new hotspot for abductions as bandits use the Falgore forest as a base to target Kano’s farming communities. Community leaders and small-scale traders may be particularly vulnerable, as they represent quick sources of ransom. Yanoko may also serve as a transit point for potential expansion toward Gwarzo and Bebeji, where security coverage remains lighter“ the report warned.

Residents in villages such as Sundu and Yanoko have already reported abductions in recent days, reinforcing fears that the region may become a new corridor for bandit activity if security forces fail to respond quickly.

The shifting dynamics also extend further south. In Oyo State, security concerns have risen following the arrest of a suspected bandit who allegedly attempted to infiltrate Jobele community in Afijo Local Government Area. The area sits along a strategic north–south transit corridor that connects the northern forests to major urban centres in Ibadan, Ogun and Lagos.

SBM Security analysts warn that such infiltration attempts could represent reconnaissance missions by bandit networks seeking to assess the responsiveness of local vigilante groups and security agencies before launching coordinated attacks.

If these movements are not contained early, the report says abandoned grazing routes and forest belts in parts of Oyo could serve as temporary transit camps for kidnapping operations targeting travellers along major highways, including routes that connect to the Lagos–Ibadan economic corridor.

The report warned; “For Lagos and Ogun, this development raises security concerns, as any established bandit presence in Afijo could serve as a staging point for kidnappings along major corridors such as the Lagos–Ibadan expressway. In the coming days, security conditions in Afijo, Oyo West, and Akinyele may remain tense. Bandit groups often operate in small units of two to five members, raising the possibility that accomplices may still be hiding in vegetation between Jobele and Moniya.

If such remnants are not located and neutralised, they may attempt probing attacks against isolated travellers or rural households to assess whether security presence has increased. Over time, abandoned grazing areas in nearby Oyo East could potentially serve as temporary transit camps, enabling quick abductions along major roads before attackers retreat into forest cover.“

The potential spread of bandit networks into new regions underscores the growing complexity of Nigeria’s internal security landscape, where military gains in one area often push armed groups into previously calmer zones.

SBM security experts called for stronger coordination between federal security forces, state authorities and local vigilante groups, warning that the pattern of displacement could gradually widen the geography of bandit activity across the country. (Business Insider Africa)