Nigeria loses between N30 trillion and N60 trillion annually to a combination of crude oil theft, illegal refining, and pipeline vandalism is jolting stakeholders in the country’s economy.

With daily losses, sometimes exceeding 400,000 barrels of crude oil on account of illegal refining, stakeholders said the country’s Renewed Hope Agenda and ambitious $1trillion economic target by 2030 may be in reverse gear if nothing strategic is done to nip it in the bud.

According to reports, Between January and July 2025, approximately 2.04 million barrels of crude were lost, valued at over $146.5 million.

Besides, the country lost 13.5 million barrels of crude oil, valued at $3.3 billion, to theft and sabotage between 2023 and 2024.

Although the military authorities have declared potent war against the economic saboteurs lately, observers told Daily Trust that the destruction of illegal refineries may not be enough to deter the criminal or salvage the country from the needless leakages.

In 2025, the Military’s Operation Delta Safe deactivated 503 illegal sites, arrested 778 criminals and recovered 16.6 million liters of crude oil.

Besides, the Air Component also neutralised 36 wooden boats, destroyed 23 reservoirs and dugout pits, as well as 125 storage tanks used for storing illegally refined products.

The military has continued to sustain the onslaught amidst concern ecological damage in the Niger Delta.

Experts say Nigeria needs a multi-layered “nip-it-in-the-bud” approach that goes beyond destruction in the Niger Delta.

Kunle Odusola, an energy expert, suggests the use of constant drone/AI surveillance, satellite tracking of creek activity, and blockchain for legitimate crude.

He added: “Hit the enablers—boat builders, chemical suppliers, black-market buyers—not just the refining sites. Offer big bounties for community tips leading to verified busts.”

According to him, there was a need to build on the Presidential Amnesty model with real skills training, scholarships, and infrastructure (roads, hospitals, clean water) in return for stopping illegal activities.

He suggested that host communities should be given ownership stakes in modular plants so they protect their own turf.

He reasoned that the Petroleum Industry Act and EFCC Act should be updated and classify large-scale illegal refining as economic sabotage or terrorism, with 15–20-year minimum sentences and full asset forfeiture.

Demand-side pressure

He suggested full rehabilitation of Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries, and ramp up Dangote’s output, to flood the market with cheap, quality fuel.

Illegal refineries, he said, profit from supply shortages and price gaps.

He advised the government to use independent (or international) audits for JTF/OPDS operations, rotate units often, and prosecute any colluding military or regulators.

“Together—especially modular refineries and community compacts—these could cut illegal refining by 70–80% in 18–24 months, mirroring Bayelsa outreach successes.

“EO9’s revenue boost gives the fiscal room to fund this without debt. President Tinubu’s direct-remittance fix is already delivering cash. Now, does the political will match? Nigeria has the tools—for the North’s energy security, smarter funding, and ending this refinery scourge.”

Former President of Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, and the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria, Dr. Brown Louis Ogbeifun, told Daily Trust that the destruction of the refineries has achieved, or will achieve the objective of deterring artisanal refiners from engaging in illegal activities.

Despite the incessant military raids, the burning of vessels, and the arrest of the culprits, artisanal refining has not been curbed. With each raid and ship-burning comes environmental pollution and damage, he said.

Mr. Nnimmo Bassey, Director, Health of Mother Earth Foundation (HOMEF), also told Daily Trust that the destruction of the so-called illegal refineries was needless.

“The refineries are not sophisticated constructions. They can very easily be dismantled. This is what our security agents should be doing. Dismantle the bush refineries and cart away to a dedicated place for safe disposal.

“The act of setting crude on fire is extremely detrimental to the environment and the health of the security agents and citizens. Using swamp buggies to crush the illegal refineries is another manifestation of the fact that our security agencies need to set up schools of ecology so that officers can get to know how dangerous it is to burn or crush the crude into the swamps.” (Weekend Trust)