By EMMANUEL ADO

Senator Aminu Tambuwal, once hailed as a rising star in Nigerian politics, may be approaching the end of his political career, judging by the renewed determination of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Sokoto State Chapter to permanently retire him in the 2027 general elections. At the forefront of this mission are Isa Sadiq Achida, the APC State Chairman, and other key stakeholders who have convinced Senator Aliyu Wamakko and Governor Ahmed Aliyu to allow them lead the campaign to politically retire Tambuwal, whom they accuse of “biting the hand that fed him”, a pointed reference to his betrayal of Senator Wamakko, his erstwhile political godfather who played a decisive role in his emergence as governor in 2015.

Speaking recently, Isa Achida didn’t mince words about the party’s position: “The APC is determined to retire Aminu Tambuwal politically. We have allowed him a free pass for too long. His time of using Sokoto State as a stepping stone for his selfish national ambitions is over.”

He has equally been unequivocal that Senator Wamakko can’t be equated to Aminu Tambuwal, whom he made governor.

If the young Turks succeed in their quest, Aminu Tambuwal who has had a remarkable political career from Speaker of the House of Representatives to two-term Governor of Sokoto State, and a key figure in the coalition against the APC would suffer his first political defeat. Tambuwal, is notorious for boasting that he has never suffered defeat in any election. But his marginal victory in the 2019 general elections and in the 2023 senatorial elections indicates a waning influence and confirms that indeed Tambuwal might have finally reached the twilight of his once-promising political career.

After their falling out, Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), openly mocked Tambuwal over his narrow re-election victory as an incumbent governor in 2019, calling it a political embarrassment and clear evidence of his unpopularity.

There is no doubt that Aminu Tambuwal has stepped on powerful forces, and the determination to ensure his defeat is no longer a matter under consideration, but one on which a conclusion has already been reached. It’s only a question of time.

Aminu Tambuwal’s political decline is not occurring in a vacuum; rather, it is the culmination of years of strained relationships, political miscalculations and betrayals that have come back to haunt him. His political fallout with Senator Wamakko, once his political benefactor, has proven to be particularly damaging. Once allies under the same political banner, their relationship soured over time especially after Tambuwal’s defection, which many supporters see as an act of disloyalty, and most especially Tambuwal’s failure to lead Sokoto State to prosperity. Wamakko remains pained that Aminu Tambuwal failed to provide leadership in his eight years.

A critical examination of Aminu Tambuwal’s record as governor and Speaker reveals a poor result in all sectors. His legacy at the state level was a disaster. Tambuwal squandered opportunities and failed to consolidate the developmental foundation laid by his predecessor, Senator Wamakko. Several key infrastructure projects, including road networks, housing estates, and water supply schemes, were all abandoned. The lack of continuity stalled the state’s progress.

Moreover, Tambuwal’s frequent absence from the state while pursuing national ambitions created a leadership vacuum. He was more focused on Abuja than on Sokoto State. The people of Sokoto State joked that only the COVID-19 lockdowns kept him grounded in the state a jab at his constant travels. While political ambition is not inherently negative, the problem was that he prioritized his personal advancement over public service and this severely damaged his standing among the people of Sokoto State.

In contrast, Governor Ahmed Aliyu has been praised for taking steps to address the backlog of challenges Aminu Tambuwal left behind without complaining. He has completed several of the projects abandoned under Tambuwal and has begun paying off the N14 billion gratuity debt owed to retirees, an issue that created untold hardship for many families. These actions have helped rebuild trust and re-energize governance in the state.

Aminu Tambuwal’s democratic credentials have also been questioned. Despite projecting the image of a democrat, he failed to conduct a formal handover to Governor Ahmed Aliyu, his successor a symbolic yet important act of political maturity and institutional respect. Many see this as evidence of arrogance or his disdain for democracy. How can a democrat refuse to hand over to his successor who won fair and square?

But more troubling for Aminu Tambuwal and his political career are the allegations of financial mismanagement that continue to shadow his administration. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) recently arrested him over an alleged N189 billion fraud following investigations into the finances of the state during his tenure. The EFCC accused him of alleged cash withdrawals, which constitute a flagrant violation of the Money Laundering (Prevention and Prohibition) Act of 2022. He has since been released on bail.

As expected, Tambuwal and his allies have dismissed these inquiries as politically motivated, but the seriousness of the allegations has sparked public interest.

Like they say, when it rains, it pours. The Sokoto State Government is expected to soon release the report of the Justice Muazu Abdulkadir Judicial Commission of Inquiry that investigated Aminu Tambuwal’s administration. The commission which was tasked with probing Tambuwal’s alleged financial irregularities, abandoned contracts, and misuse of public funds, has completed its public sittings and is expected to submit its report soon. When this happens Aminu Tambuwal will certainly be busy fighting for his life. For many in Sokoto State the inquiry represents a long-awaited effort to hold him accountable.

Many people believe that the state resources might have been diverted to fund Tambuwal’s presidential campaign. While concrete evidence has not been publicly disclosed, the pattern of financial strain during his tenure, combined with the scale of his presidential campaign activities, has fueled public suspicion. As the findings from the judicial inquiry and EFCC investigations unfold, clarity on these matters is expected. Will it add to the legal complications of his already embattled political profile?

Beyond these personal setbacks, Tambuwal also faces an uphill task electorally. The APC in Sokoto State is currently in a much stronger position than the battered PDP. With the combined strength of Senator Wamakko’s grassroots network and Governor Aliyu’s growing popularity due to his sterling performance, the APC is well-positioned to dominate the 2027 elections. In contrast, the fractured PDP is expected to suffer severe electoral losses. To worsen matters, several former loyalists of Tambuwal have defected, and the party is struggling to offer a compelling alternative to the APC’s governance narrative. Tambuwal has no body to blame because he squandered his chance.

Though Tambuwal is no stranger to political survival, but his staunchest backers admit that this time is different, because his political capital has been fully depleted. Only time will tell whether the “master strategist” will be able to navigate and survive the plot against him.

In the end, Tambuwal’s legacy is not likely to be a deeply contested because of his failure in governance. Between 1999 and 2023, he managed to position himself as a central figure in Nigerian politics but failed to deliver. And the mounting opposition, legal inquiries, and dwindling influence, the road ahead appears increasingly uncertain, especially with the APC determination to clip his wings. Clearly the former governor may finally has reached his political end.

Postscript: Will the real Aminu Tambuwal stand up for recognition?

•Ado, a veteran journalist and political analyst, writes from Kaduna.