Geopolitical Survey International (GSI) has released the results of its political trends survey in Osun State for the month of July with specific focus on the consequences of the recent defection politics across the three senatorial districts.

The Survey results also specifically polled the effect of the entrance of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) into Osun politics as a third force alongside the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC).

According to a statement released by the lead consultant, Dr. Adeyemo Adeyefa, the survey was conducted between July 1st and 20th with a total of 30,000 respondents, with 10,000 respondents per senatorial districts.

Four questions were orally presented to the respondents as follows;

“If the governorship election is to be held today in Osun, which party will you vote for?

“Does Governor Ademola Adeleke deserve to be re-elected next year?

“Will recent defections affect or influence your future voting choice?

“Should Governor Adeleke defect to another political party or stay with the PDP?”

The results of the analysis as presented by the lead consultant are as follows:

“71.5 percent of the respondents said they will vote PDP in the governorship election if elections were to be held today in Osun state.

“This was a major upward shift from the results of previous surveys which put the PDP and the state governor within 60 to 65 percent favourability rating.

“15 percent opted to vote APC while 10 percent said they will vote ADC. About 4.5 percent of the voters were undecided.

“This result reflected a downward swing for the main opposition APC which in previous results polled 20 to 25 percent.

“Analysis on senatorial basis however showed that the number opting for a vote for the PDP is higher in Osun West and Osun Central than Osun East.

“The three political parties appear neck to neck in their rating especially within the Osun East senatorial district.

“For the second question, 72 percent of the respondents said that Mr. Adeleke deserves re-election.

“Another 14 percent simply mentioned APC while 10 percent mentioned ADC. The remaining four percent were undecided.

“The number of respondents who supported the Governor's re-election is however at par across the three senatorial districts which raises real differences between preference for PDP as a party and support for Mr. Adeleke.

“85 percent of respondents to the third question on impact of defection in next year's voting said it will have no impact on their voting choice.

“For the last question on the survey, 90 percent of respondents said the governor should not defect to any political party and that he should stay with the PDP before and after the 2026 elections.

“The unusually high number of those who opposed his defection reflected the open opposition of the Osun state members of the APC to the Governor's defection to the federal party,” the statement narrated.

Dr. Adeyefa said analysis of collected data resulting from field operations has a three percent error margin.

“We remain committed to fair polling practices. For the August survey results, we will invite stakeholders, our partners and the media for a press briefing”, Adeyefa concluded.