The naira could appreciate to N1,400 per dollar in the coming months, according to a new projection by Comercio Partners. The naira closed at N1,535.61 on Wednesday in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, a marginal depreciation of 38 kobo from the previous day’s rate of N1,535.23.

The investment firm said the best-case scenario is anchored on the successful issuance of Nigeria’s 2025 Eurobond to fund the budget deficit, a move that has historically led to a stronger naira, such as the rally seen after the December 2024 Eurobond issuance.

Speaking during the presentation of the firm’s 2025 H2 Economic Outlook themed “Reconfiguration: From Global Trade to Quantum Innovation – A New Economic Era Emerges,” Ifeanyi Ubah, head of investment research at Comercio Partners, said improved foreign exchange inflows from sustained government reforms, higher global oil prices, and a weaker U.S. dollar would also support the naira’s appreciation. “Our projection assumes a confluence of favourable external and domestic factors,” Ubah noted.

The report outlines three possible exchange rate outcomes for the second half of the year. The best-case scenario sees the naira appreciating to N1,400, supported by strong fundamentals and capital market confidence. In the base-case scenario, the currency is expected to remain within the N1,500 to N1,600 band, consistent with its current range on the back of steady FX inflows, oil earnings, and CBN intervention efforts. However, in a worst-case scenario, the naira could weaken beyond N1,700 per dollar if oil prices decline sharply, net foreign portfolio flows turn negative, and dollar demand increases amid global volatility.

Addressing participants at the report’s unveiling, Emomotimi Agama, director general of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said the SEC remains committed to creating a regulatory environment that both supports innovation and protects investors. “We are actively engaging with fintech startups, blockchain innovators, and quantum researchers to develop frameworks that balance progress with market integrity,” he said.

Agama stressed the importance of human capital investment, noting that nations that prioritise STEM education and digital skills will lead in the emerging quantum economy. “Collaborations between academia, industry, and government are essential to build a future-ready workforce,” he added. He also called for deeper public-private partnerships to fund R&D hubs and innovation pilots, which he said are key to unlocking Nigeria’s next wave of economic transformation.

The event featured two high-level panel sessions. The panelists observed that while Nigeria has made some progress at the macroeconomic level, productivity remains largely unimproved. They argued that without the right structures and proper implementation of policies, these gains could be undermined.

The first, focused on Nigeria’s economic frontlines, had speakers including Philip Alege, president of the Nigerian Association of Macroeconomic Modellers; Femi Adebayo, award-winning film producer and managing director/CEO of J-15 Media Network; and Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise. The second panel, which addressed global macroeconomic dynamics, featured Joseph Nnanna, chief economist at the Development Bank of Nigeria; Faith A. Iyoha of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group; Tosin Osunkoya, CEO of Comercio Partners Asset Management; and Zeal Akaraiwe, CEO of Graeme Blaque. (BusinessDay)