In this article, MAUREEN OKPE sheds light on the transformative initiative by the NIPSS and PBDC to equip Nigerian leaders with strategic foresight and anticipatory governance skills. As the nation battles complex security threats, economic uncertainty, and rising social tensions, the senior leadership course marks a significant shift from reactionary measures to proactive, long-term planning. The article underscores the urgent need for a coordinated, future-oriented leadership culture that prioritises resilience, systems thinking, and collective action by integrating insights from prioritised experts, senior officials, and development partners.

“We Must Anticipate, Not Just React” – NIPSS Sets the Tone

As Nigeria contends with mounting economic hardship, insecurity, social unrest, and climate-related disasters, the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), in collaboration with Peace Building Development Consult (PBDC), is championing a leadership shift—from reactive crisis response to strategic anticipation.

This was the core theme of a three-day Leadership Course on “Strategic Anticipation and Crisis Management” held at the Nigerian Army Resource Centre, Abuja. Over 78 participants from government, security agencies, development institutions, and private organisations attended the training to explore how foresight-driven governance can enhance national resilience.

Opening the course, Dr. Garba Malumfashi, Senior Fellow at NIPSS, asserted: “Policymakers need foresight more than ever before. We must manage and anticipate crises in this volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world.” He noted that the course aligns with the NIPSS mandate under the National Institute Act 1979: to foster policy innovation and strategic thinking.

Foresight Over Firefighting

One of the most impactful sessions was led by Anthony Kila, Professor of Strategy and Director at the Commonwealth Institute. His lecture, “Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning: Building Resilience in a Rapidly Changing World,” challenged leaders to adopt long-term strategic thinking.

“Strategic planning is not about predicting the future—it’s about preparing for multiple futures,” said Kila, urging environmental scanning, trend analysis, and backcasting to anticipate disruptions and build adaptive capacity.

Kila highlighted global complexities—from technological disruption to demographic shifts—and said Nigeria cannot afford outdated governance models. “The world is not waiting for Nigeria to catch up,” he warned. “We must move from reacting to preparing.”

He defined resilience as the ability to adapt and lead through volatility. He outlined seven pillars for leaders: self-analysis, clear vision, strategic decisions, effective communication, strategic networks, adaptive culture, and performance-driven thinking.

Kila described strategic foresight as “a structured, systematic exploration of possible futures to guide today’s decisions.” Scenario planning, he explained, enables leaders to map diverse futures using tools like PESTEL and SWOT, helping them avoid blind spots.

He said Inclusive planning cycles, innovation roadmaps, and crisis simulations can benefit governments, policymakers, and businesses. He concluded with practical tips: build foresight units, integrate foresight into strategy, and begin with horizon scanning. “Strategic foresight is not a luxury,” Kila insisted. It is a necessity.”

Policy and Governance: Bridging the Gap

Dr. Garba Malumfashi’s follow-up lecture emphasised the symbiotic relationship between law and policy. “A policy may inspire a law or derive from it, but both must align,” he said, noting the value of tools like early warning systems.

He defined policy as a deliberate system to achieve rational outcomes and advocated for proactive, adaptable frameworks. Strategic anticipation shifts governance from reaction to preparation through foresight, horizon scanning, and scenario planning.

He explained that horizon scanning detects weak signals of change before they escalate. This is especially relevant in Nigeria’s energy, food, climate, and youth sectors. He also introduced the Delphi method for consensus-building in uncertain environments.

Vision 2050, Nigeria’s long-term plan, could benefit from embedded foresight tools to remain adaptable. Malumfashi recommended closer collaboration between institutions like NIPSS and independent think tanks like PBDC to integrate foresight into national frameworks.

“Policy-making must no longer be a closed-door exercise,” he asserted. “In a volatile world, the best policies are shaped by many voices.”

Crisis Is Rarely a Surprise: Preparedness and Human Security

Mr. Kayode Bolaji, Executive Director of PBDC, delivered a stirring session titled “Human Security and the Information Lifeline in Times of Crisis.”

“Crises rarely arrive like bolts from the blue. They stem from ignored warnings and poor preparation,” Bolaji said. He championed community-based early warning systems and risk-informed governance.

Bolaji defined human security as more than the absence of violence—it includes freedom from fear and want, even amid crises. He stressed that access to timely, trusted information is crucial.

He recalled COVID-19 and Hurricane Maria and noted that inadequate risk communication worsens crises. “When people are informed, anxiety drops and their ability to act improves,” he said.

He called for scenario-based training and grassroots simulations to promote local preparedness. “Risk information is not a luxury. It’s a lifeline,” Bolaji declared.

Security Beyond Guns: Foresight in Defence Strategy

Dr. Kabir Adamu, CEO of Beacon Security Intelligence, in his presentation “Foresight Thinking in Defence and Security Management,” emphasised that modern security now includes threats like pandemics, climate change, and cyber warfare.

“Security is no longer just about guns and borders,” Adamu said. “Foresight enables institutions to move from tactical reaction to strategic anticipation.”

He argued that Nigeria can no longer afford to rely solely on traditional planning approaches that are linear and backwards-looking, in a world increasingly defined by VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) and BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, Incomprehensible) realities—where geopolitical upheavals, cyber threats, climate shocks, and disinformation campaigns converge—foresight thinking emerges as a vital tool for national survival and progress.

In a VUCA/BANI world, where unpredictability reigns, Adamu called for interdisciplinary planning and foresight tools such as backcasting and scenario modelling. He argued that current security systems are reactive, addressing symptoms instead of root causes.

Adamu introduced Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM) as a complementary tool. With foresight, ESRM can transition from a checklist to a strategic support framework.

He advocated institutionalising foresight in security agencies, using AI (Artificial Intelligence) and big data, and involving youth in security planning. “We must prepare for the plausible, not just the probable,” he said.

Rural Governance: The Frontline of Insecurity

Chris Ngwodo, Director-General of the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE), pointed out, “Insecurity in Nigeria is predominantly a rural problem. Rural abandonment creates a vacuum for conflict.”

He urged investment in rural infrastructure and reversing environmental degradation. “We cannot develop by abandoning our rural communities,” he said.

Echoing this, Maj-Gen. Adeyinka Femadewa (rtd), former PGSO at the National Security Adviser’s Office, challenged leaders to change their reactive mindset.

“Crisis does not wait for a policy document to be dusted off a shelf,” he said, calling for scenario-based learning and community responsibility.

A Call to Action

In his closing remarks, Prof. Ayo Omotayo, Director-General of NIPSS, urged collective effort. “Nothing will fall from the sky to solve our problems. It’s time to stop waiting for miracles and start acting,” he said.

He criticised policy inconsistency and public cynicism: “Criticise with purpose—to build, not destroy.”

Participants’ Voices: From Insight to Action

Mr. Senator Iroegbu, CEO of CANAG Communications and Convener of Geopolitics Series, described the course as “a transformative experience addressing Nigeria’s persistent crisis management failures.”

“This training equipped me with skills to anticipate and manage crises, and to lead more effectively,” he said.

Mrs. Eniola Ekubi of DEPOWA echoed this sentiment. “I had many ‘wow’ moments. I am leaving with tools I can use in crises and daily leadership,” she said. She urged more empathy for security personnel and greater inclusion of younger professionals in such training.

Their reflections underscore a central message: building national resilience starts with equipping leaders to see further, think deeper, and act smarter. The course has planted seeds of foresight that, if nurtured, could reshape Nigeria’s leadership landscape for generations

Key Takeaways and Recommendations

The NIPSS foresight training clearly demonstrates that Nigeria can shift from a reactive to a proactive national crisis management approach. The key takeaway is that foresight must become a core leadership competency—woven into policies, decision-making, and institutional frameworks. Leaders must embrace data-driven planning, collaborative governance, and scenario-based forecasting to stay ahead of emerging risks.

To move forward, it is recommended that Foresight units be established across MDAs to support anticipatory planning and policy design. Also, security and development frameworks should be integrated, recognising the root causes of insecurity and addressing them holistically. Media, youth, women, and civil society should be included in national foresight exercises to ensure inclusive and equitable solutions.

In addition, capacity-building on foresight tools should be scaled up across government tiers and regions. NIPSS should also institutionalise foresight as a recurring national leadership training program with tracking and implementation mechanisms.

Ultimately, Nigeria’s future depends on reacting better and thinking ahead together.