In what appears as a bulwark against Northern opposition to his 2027 re-election bid, President Bola Tinubu, in a seismic shift, is looking southward to build and consolidate impregnable support base.

Recent political development in Delta State, where a sitting Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Governor, Sheriff Francis Orohwedor Oborevwori not only dramatically defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) but also collapsed the entire structure of his former party into the ruling party and the gale of endorsements the president has been receiving from opposition Southern Governors and a number of Middle Belt political leaders for his second term leave no one in doubt as to Tinubu’s resolve to totally dominate the two regions to counter the cold shudder he appears to be receiving from the far North as regards his re-election bid.

“I wouldn’t want to say that PBAT is calling the bluff of the North but I can confidently tell you that what is happening is an aggressive rallying of Southern and Middle Belt political leaders for his second term”, an APC leader familiar with the unfolding political realignment and horse trading told Daily Sun.

In forging a rare pan- Southern and Middle Belt front, President Tinubu, political analysts point out, is also unwittingly rattling the political establishment of the two regions.

According to a source involved in the ongoing reconfiguration of the political space, the President’s foot soldiers have been fanned across the Southern and Middle Belt political spectrum charged with impressing on governors, National Assembly members and political leaders across party line in the two regions, the imperativeness of regional cohesion and solidarity as regard retaining the presidency in the South for eight years. The argument they are advancing is that if President Tinubu suffers defeat in 2027 and becomes a one-term President and power returns to the North so soon after former President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years on the saddle, the South would have not only been short-changed in the unwritten North-South rotational Presidency principle but would have also suffered incalculable psychological damage. And that such unsettling scenario will give impetus to the often boast of some Northern intelligentsia and political leaders that their region holds the ace in deciding the tenor of politics and presidential succession in the country.

Following his recent resignation as the Special Adviser to President Tinubu on Political Matters, Dr Hakem Baba Ahmed who was also a Spokesperson of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), made the same boast recently, when he declared that, “in the next six months, the north will decide where it stands. If the rest of the country wants to join us, fine. If not, we will go our own way. One thing is clear: Nobody can become president of Nigeria without northern support.”

Recall that in the run up to the 2015 presidential election, some PDP governors from the north and their Rivers State counterpart, Chibuike Amaechi, rebelled against the party and President Goodluck Jonathan and joined forces with the then nascent APC to sweep him out of power. This, it was learnt, may have informed the wooing of Governor Oborevwori to the APC. His defection is believed to be a direct result of President Tinubu’s rallying of the South and the emerging realignment and alliance.

Daily Sun recalls that, until last Wednesday, Delta State, since 1999, has been an impregnable fortress of the PDP. Governor Oborevwori is believed to have the blessing of former governor of the state, Chief James Ibori, a chieftain of the PDP who, like President Tinubu, was the 1999-2007 set of governors, to defect to the APC.

Like a big masquerade, Ibori, a deft and grassroots politician and bosom friend of the president who still wields enormous political influence in the South-South, 18 years after leaving office, is expected to formally defect at a later date, in a grand ceremony, to the APC.

Meanwhile, opposition governors who are staying put in their parties have also pledged 100 percent support to President Tinubu in his 2027 return bid. Some of them like Governors Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra State and Pastor Eno Umo of Akwa Ibom, have openly voiced their endorsements of the president’s re-election.

During a flag-off ceremony of a 65-km road construction in his state recently, Governor Eno did not mince words when he said “let me end by assuring our President (Tinubu), our people-loving President, he will complete eight years because we are going to stand by him”, the governor said.

And to Soludo, President Tinubu is a national treasure. “The president’s inclusive approach to governance and willingness to partner with subnational entities for national progress reflect his belief in a Nigeria that works for all,” Soludo had said in a glowing 73rd birthday message to President Tinubu.

Dr. Markus Oteri, a Social Affairs commentator and political analyst opine that “what the president is doing is a perfect response to the sickening arrogance of some Northern politicians who behave as if the country belongs to them alone.”

Oteri is of the view that President Tinubu can successfully re-enact the Jonathan feat of 2011 if he runs with a Northern Christian Vice President in 2027. “Let’s remember that in the 2011 presidential election, the whole of the so-called core North ganged up against President Jonathan and instead cast their lot with one of their own, Buhari, in fact Jonathan lost woefully to Buhari in all the core Muslim Northern states but won overwhelmingly in the entire Southern Nigeria and in the minority Northern Christian communities and also in the Middle Belt states. And that was how President Jonathan massively won the 2011 presidential election. This feat will be seamless and less laborious for Tinubu if only he can pair with a Christian running mate in 2027,” Dr Oteri told Daily Sun.

Already, the Middle Belt, also known as North-Central geopolitical zone, is demanding the Vice-Presidential slot in the new arrangement. They argue that religious sentiment of Muslim-Muslim ticket may no longer sway the core Muslim North into queuing behind the president and that it has become inevitable for him to concretise his pan-South and Middle Belt alliances by picking a Christian running mate from the North- central.

Daily Sun’s findings reveal that if President Tinubu eventually yields to a North -Central Vice President, there will be a swap of positions in which Secretary to Government of the Federation (SGF) currently held by North-Central, will be ceded to the South-South and the Senate Presidency currently occupied by South -South, taken to the South-East.

Meanwhile, PDP’s Acting National Chairman, Ambassador Umar Damagum has described Governor Oborevwori’s defection as sad but expressed optimism that the party would overcome the setback back. His words: “this is a party that has seen more than this and is still standing. Let me remind us all – Peter Obi had no governor behind him in 2023, but he still garnered millions of votes. The 2027 election is not about how many governors or so-called leaders a party has. It is about President Tinubu and the condition of Nigerians. This election will be APC versus Nigerians.”

Similarly, a former Acting National Publicity Secretary of the APC, Timi Frank has accused President Tinubu of plotting to force himself on Nigerians in 2027 through blackmail and threat. Frank said in a press statement that “while Tinubu is on one hand blackmailing Southerners, especially opposition governors on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) by playing the ethnic card to gain support, he is on the other hand threatening to deal with them if they fail to support him by declaring a state of emergency in their states over spurious charges of violence and corruption.

“He has increased the intensity now by blackmailing, intimidating and putting at least five PDP governors from the South under duress to defect along with their members in the National Assembly to the APC. As we speak, at least five opposition governors are set to defect to APC not because they like Tinubu but due to intense political pressure, intimidation and blackmail, while those who will remain have been made to sign undertakings to deliver their states to Tinubu, otherwise they will be made to lose their second term elections.”

A media strategist, Samuel O. Ajayi, said poaching opposition governors in order to win re- election did not start with Tinubu. He however cautioned that while Tinubu will win the war, he may not win the peace.

“We have travelled this road before. As 2003 approached, Obasanjo poached practically every governor on the ANPP platform. From 20 states in 1999, PDP had 28 in 2003. At the end of the day, the PDP became a victim of its own success. The desperation to capture the South is to make up for the expected shortfall from the North. Tinubu won the 2023 election with the lowest presidential vote tally since 1979! He had 36.6 percent of the votes having garnered 8.8million of a total of 23.5m votes. No presidential candidate had had such low result and still emerged winner. Jonathan had almost 13.7m votes in 2015 and still lost. Out of the three geopolitical zones in the South, Tinubu won only the South-West.

The sharing of the votes between Obi and Atiku gave Tinubu the victory. This time around, he wants to secure the South ahead of whatever the North is cooking.

Unfortunately, with combination of subterfuge, threat and fear on the part of three or four key South-South states, they are moving to join him just to secure their second term. They will win the political war but might not enjoy the peace of victory,” Ajayi noted. (Daily Sun)