With the swearing-in of State House of Assembly members in Lokoja, the political discussion has now shifted to Kogi governorship election slated for 2016. The people of Kogi State will have an opportunity by next year to elect a new governor who will steer the ship of state for another four years.

As the current governor, Capt Idris Wada, has every constitutional right to renew his mandate, so also any other capable hands in the state have constitutional right to seek to wrestle power from him. The current governor, from my observation, is doing everything possible to renew his mandate, going by his recent political activities in the state.

Based on happenings in the state, I have palpable fears on the outcome of the forthcoming Kogi governorship election despite people’s complaints and resolve that the state governor needs to be kicked out of office as a result of his abysmal performance.

Well, my fear is not on the basis that there would be an ethnic war in the state with the removal of the current governor, Capt Wada or in event that he eventually got elected. Also, do I fear that election will not hold in the state? I do not also envisage that we might run short of credible individuals who can do it better than Wada in case he is eventually removed from office. My fear is that the current power shift or power rotation, as being agitated for by the people of Kogi Central and Kogi West, might not see the light of the day and efforts made in this regard may amount to nullity, thus a person from Kogi East will again emerge as Kogi Governor. I want to make it clear that as a true son of Ebira, I strongly support power shift or power rotation, just as desired by many of our people. People should not misinterpret my analysis in this article. I have written series of articles where I strongly canvassed for the rotation of the governorship seat among the three senatorial districts in the state.

Notwithstanding that I am an advocate of power shift, that will not stop me from speaking out when there is a need, especially when I sense what could hinder our chances of realising the desired power shift. From my observation, the people of Kogi Central and Kogi West are presently not serious in their call for power shift! Recall that this is not the first time the call for power shift and power rotation was brought to the front burner of the state. The tactic adopted by the advocates of power shift and power rotation in the time past, which led to their failure, has not really changed from what I am seeing today. The current agitation is merely championed by youths, as Kogi elders or political brokers in the state who can make this materialise are not truly showing interest. How can you call for power shift and power rotation when aspirants from either Kogi Central or Kogi West are individualistic in their approach? How can the youths of Kogi West and Kogi Central call for power shift when the major political actors in these areas have not come to term to nominate a consensus candidate for the gubernatorial contest?

What we presently have is that aspirants from Kogi Central and Kogi West are individually soliciting support of people of the state for the primary election of their party. Presently, not less than six aspirants from Kogi West are rumoured to showing interest, while Kogi Central has five and that of East is seven.

If you critically analyse this, aspirants from Kogi East stands the chance to win the party’s ticket, because they always show understanding in the political game, unlike people of Kogi West and Kogi Central. They know how to play their game by throwing their weight behind one candidate despite their large number at a start, when the chips are down, going by my research work in the past elections. Aspirants in Kogi West and Kogi Central hardly marry their interest together, which always caused their failure in the past elections. Thus, if save individualistic approach is adopted during the governorship tussle as currently observed, an aspirant from Kogi East also has a chance to secure their party’s ticket in view of high number of local governments from their area. My take on this is that, the party’s delegates from Kogi Central and Kogi West are not truly trusted to stand by their people, unlike their counterpart in Kogi East.

I will not stop saying that it is high time political stakeholders from Kogi West and Kogi Central shopped for consensus candidate for the contest, as I am not pleased with the present call for power shift and power rotation, which I regard as mere academic exercise. We should understand that when the North wanted to wrestle power from Jonathan by all means, they adopted Muhammadu Buhari as their consensus candidate, which later worked well for him at the general election.

If the people of Kogi Central and Kogi West cannot come together to adopt one of their own as consensus candidate in either the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or the All Progressives Alliance (APC) for the forthcoming election, the call for power shift will be a mirage. If they don’t adopt consensus candidate to stand for the election, we might end up having split of votes from Kogi Central and Kogi West by party’s delegates, which will work in favour of any aspirant from Kogi East in the primary election. We should not also forget that Igalla people will vote their own no matter how bad the aspirant is.

•Ojate is Managing Editor of Eagle Reporters, an online news media in Abuja. Contact: 08052666344 or 08102658380. Photo shows Kogi Governor Idris Wada.