As the people of Ondo State, South-West Nigeria, go to the polls today to elect the man to rule them for the next four years, News Express wishes to confidently predict victory for the incumbent, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko, candidate of the Labour Party (LP).

True, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the country’s second biggest party after the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has mounted a strong campaign in its bid to dislodge Mimiko and unite the South-West under one political umbrella. True, Mimiko doesn’t have a godfather whereas his main challenger, Chief Rotimi Akerodolu (SAN) of the ACN has a formidable godfather in Senator Bola Tinubu. True, LP, which controls only Ondo, is a dwarf compared to the ACN, which rules over six states.

Even so, News Express foresees a Mimiko victory for the following reasons:   

Incumbency factor: This is a very strong determinant of political success in Nigeria. In most cases, dislodging an incumbent requires a miracle. Mimiko himself came face-to-face with this reality during the 2007 ballot, in which he beat PDP’s Olusegun Agagu but was rigged out and had to resort to a court battle to retrieve his mandate.

Credible performance: Based on personal observations in Ondo and the testimony of neutral parties, News Express can confirm that Mimiko is one of the best performing governors in Nigeria. His best performance is in the health sector, where his Abiye programme has saved thousands of mothers and children from premature death and has been globally celebrated as a model.  

Strong campaign: Mimiko has matched the ACN machinery in every aspect of electioneering campaign. He has not been intimidated in any way and has been able to make a strong argument for his re-election.

Likelihood of credible elections: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) appears determined to conduct a credible ballot. INEC Chairman Attahiru Jega has promised to make this the best election ever in Nigeria and indications are that he means it.

Thus, while News Express remains politically neutral and does not endorse any candidate, we feel confident, based on the available evidence, to predict victory for Governor Mimiko.

*Photo, courtesy Charles Kehinde Alasholuyi, shows Mimiko being accredited to vote.