Amid uncertainties over candidates’ participation 65 days to the elections, Nigerians have expressed limited confidence in the credibility of next year’s polls, according to a new Afrobarometer survey led by NOIPolls.

According to the survey released yesterday, about four in 10 citizens think the 2027 elections will be free and fair, as most expect massive vote buying and political violence, while overwhelming majorities also express fears that valid votes will not be counted and that political parties and candidates will disregard electoral laws, leading to the announcement of incorrect results.

Political disengagement is also evident, as about two-thirds of citizens say they do not feel close to any political party. However, roughly the same proportion said they are likely to vote, including almost half who say they are “very likely” to do so.

Despite their concerns, Nigerians demonstrate a strong preference for inclusive national leadership. An overwhelming majority of potential voters say that their votes will be determined by candidates’ stands on policy issues, but significant shares also indicate that they will vote for a candidate from their state, a candidate of their religious group, a candidate of their ethnic group, or a candidate who bribes them with money or a gift.

Large majorities of Nigerians anticipate electoral abuses in the 2027 elections: Nearly nine in 10 (89%) consider vote buying likely, while about eight in 10 foresee valid votes not being counted (79%), political violence (79%), political parties and candidates disregarding electoral laws (78%), and incorrect election results being announced (78%).

This is as the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) yesterday warned that shrinking civic space and impunity for electoral crimes will threaten the 2027 elections. It therefore urged authorities to act before the polls. The Executive Secretary of the Commission, Dr Anthony Ojukwu, was speaking at the 2026 Civil Society and Human Rights Defenders Forum on the State of Human Rights in Abuja, convened by the Commission with support from the European Union.

The executive secretary cited harassment, arbitrary arrests, and the misapplication of laws, including provisions of the Cybercrimes Act, against civil society organisations, journalists and human rights defenders. He also flagged political and voter intimidation, exclusion by prohibitive nomination fees that shut out women, youth and persons with disabilities, hate speech and incitement, and regulatory uncertainties around digital platforms.

He pointed to the Commission’s September 2026 Human Rights Situation Dashboard, which recorded 338,810 complaints of human rights violations across its 38 offices nationwide, with the North Central zone recording the highest number. In the same period, he said the Human Rights Observatory documented 208 killings and 210 kidnappings, alongside deaths in custody and violence against children. Also, he said the Commission completed 2,458 investigations and undertook 113 monitoring visits to police stations, correctional centres and other places of detention.

On other interventions by the National Human Rights Commission, he said the Human Rights Election Situation Room will move to 24/7 operations through the election window, with monthly dashboards and bulletins, monitors deployed to hotspots, and legal aid partnerships on standby.

Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) has expressed concern over reports of election-related violence, hate speech and political intimidation ahead of the 2027 general elections, while pledging fresh funding to support the protection of civic and political spaces in Nigeria ahead of the polls.

EU Ambassador and Head of Delegation to Nigeria and ECOWAS, Gautier Mignot, disclosed this on Wednesday in Abuja at the 2026 Civil Society and Human Rights Defenders Forum on the State of Human Rights. Mignot said the EU was preparing a new project with additional funding in partnership with the commission to strengthen human rights protection and support democratic governance.

He described the forum’s theme, “Protecting Human Rights in Civic and Political Spaces in the 2027 Elections, as timely, particularly against the backdrop of reports of election-related violence, hate speech, political intimidation and violations of fundamental rights. He said the EU’s support was not intended to interfere in Nigeria’s electoral process but to strengthen the capacity of legitimate Nigerian stakeholders to contribute to free, fair and credible elections.

The ambassador warned that restrictions on civic and political spaces could undermine citizens’ participation in elections and weaken public confidence in democratic institutions. He said free media, peaceful assembly, open public forums and active civil society organisations were essential to ensuring that citizens could scrutinise candidates, debate public issues and hold political leaders accountable without fear of censorship or retaliation.

Mignot urged government institutions, political parties, civil society organisations and the media to play their respective roles in protecting these freedoms. He also pledged that the EU and its member states would study the outcome document and roadmap to be produced by the forum and share them with their respective authorities.

In another development, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has criticised the release of the certified copy of a judgment by Justice Peter Lifu on the final day of the seven days prescribed by the Constitution, saying the timing leaves the party with little time to study the decision and prepare its next legal steps.

The party also accused the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Kaduna State Government of obstructing its political activities, following the alleged sealing of Arewa House, the proposed venue for its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar’s consultation with Northern stakeholders scheduled for Thursday.

In a statement on Wednesday, signed by Phrank Shaibu, Director of Strategic Communication of the ADC Presidential Campaign Council, the party said it would study the judgment and pursue every lawful remedy available. It cited Section 294(1) of the 1999 Constitution, which requires courts to furnish parties with duly authenticated copies of their decisions within seven days of delivery.

The ADC, however, expressed concern over what it described as a pattern of actions aimed at frustrating its campaign and political consultations. It said the Kaduna State Government had sealed Arewa House ahead of Atiku’s planned meeting with Northern stakeholders, describing the action as an affront to the heritage and dignity of the people of Northern Nigeria.

The party also recalled what it described as an attempt by the APC-led government to frustrate its campaign flag-off in Sokoto, saying the people stood firm and the party’s activities went ahead. The ADC held President Bola Tinubu and the APC politically responsible for what it called a pattern of obstruction, urging the ruling party to respect democratic competition and the opposition’s right to campaign and consult with Nigerians.

However, former Kaduna Central senator, Shehu Sani, has declared President Tinubu the candidate to beat in the 2027 presidential election, accusing successive northern political leaders of failing the region despite years in positions of authority and exploiting ethnic sentiments to shift responsibility for its problems.

Sani, who represented Kaduna Central in the Eighth Senate, said northern leaders who served under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressives Congress (APC), including former governors, senators and a vice president, failed to address insecurity, poverty and industrial decline when they had the opportunity.

Speaking on TVC yesterday, he challenged those criticising Tinubu’s administration to account for their records, particularly their failure to revive industries in Kaduna and Kano, tackle terrorism in the North-East and banditry in the North-West

“They were in power. They couldn’t reactivate industries in the northern part of Nigeria. They couldn’t address terrorism in the North-East or banditry in the North-West. Their being in power was not helpful, impactful or useful to the people of northern Nigeria,” he said.

Sani claimed that about 85 per cent of industries in Kaduna and Kano had declined over the past decade, arguing that leaders who presided over the region’s affairs should explain why they failed to create jobs and revive its economy

He accused some northern politicians of placing ethnic loyalty above accountability, recalling that several leaders who opposed his criticism of insecurity under former President Muhammadu Buhari had remained silent because Buhari was their kinsman.

He said killings, displacement and destruction of property in Katsina, Zamfara, Kaduna, Niger and Kebbi states did not attract the necessary response from political leaders who should have spoken up against the administration. (The Guardian)