Nigeria’s Super Eagles AFCON 2027 qualification hopes are still alive, but the margin for error has almost disappeared.

A 3-0 defeat to Guinea-Bissau in Bissau on 29 September left Eric Chelle’s side with three points from two Group L matches, behind Guinea-Bissau on six. Because Tanzania are already qualified as co-hosts, only one team from Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar will reach the finals.

Group L standings after two matchdays

Guinea-Bissau lead Group L with six points from two matches, having beaten Tanzania 2-0 away and Nigeria 3-0 at home. Nigeria sit second on three points after their 2-1 comeback win over Madagascar in Uyo on 25 September.

Madagascar and Tanzania both have one point following their 1-1 draw in Meknes, Morocco. Tanzania’s position in the table does not matter for qualification because their place at AFCON 2027 is already secured as co-hosts.

The current table, for reference: Guinea-Bissau 6 points, Nigeria 3, Madagascar 1, Tanzania 1. But Tanzania’s points do not count in the race for the single available spot.

Why only one team can qualify from Group L

CAF’s qualifying format for AFCON 2027 placed 48 nations into 12 groups of four, and in nine of those groups, the top two teams qualify directly. Groups D, H and L are different because they contain the co-hosts: Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania respectively. In those three groups, only the highest-placed team outside the host nation will qualify.

That means Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar are competing for one ticket.

Tanzania’s results still count on the table, but Tanzania cannot take the qualifying spot, and every point Nigeria drops against Tanzania in November still damages their own tally while doing nothing to help Tanzania’s already-guaranteed status.

This is the rule that has turned what looked like a favourable draw into a tight three-way race. Austin Eguavoen, the NFF technical director, said after the draw that Madagascar were “another hard nut to crack” and warned against assuming Nigeria’s pedigree would be enough.

Nigeria’s remaining fixtures and points they need

Nigeria have four matches left, and the first two come in the November international window against Tanzania, with Nigeria hosting the first leg on 11 November 2026 and travelling to Tanzania for the return on 15 November. The venue for the home fixture could be the renovated Teslim Balogun Stadium in Lagos, though Uyo remains an option, as the NFF has not confirmed the venue. (Nigerian Tribune)