Nigerians are largely willing to participate in the 2027 general elections, but fear of violence, distrust of electoral institutions, and vote buying could keep many from turning out, a new Yiaga Africa survey found.

Its third National Voting Intentions Survey showed that 84 per cent of respondents said they were likely or very likely to vote in the next general election.

Only 41 per cent said they were likely to vote and were very certain about their choice, while the proportion of respondents who said they were “very likely” to vote fell from 52 per cent in December 2025 to 47 per cent in September 2026.

The survey, titled “Willing but wary: how Nigerians intend to vote in 2027,” was based on interviews with 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Yiaga Africa urged the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a threat-based national election security plan by November 2026, with particular attention to the Northeast, Northwest and North Central.

It also called on INEC to commit to real-time upload of polling-unit results on IReV, publish and test its results-management protocol, and undertake confidence-building efforts in the Southeast and South-South.

Yiaga Africa, in a statement by the Programme Manager, Foreign Information Manipulation & Interference (FIMI) and Acting Head Media, Dr. Milliscent Nnwoka, said the respondents were interviewed by telephone and, for the first time, through face-to-face engagements in rural communities in September.

The report identified insecurity as the biggest potential obstacle to voter turnout, with 61 per cent of respondents saying fear of violence could stop them from voting.

The figure rose to 78 per cent in the North-East, while 83 per cent of respondents said improved security would make them more likely to vote.

The survey also found that confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission declined.

Only 34 per cent of respondents said they were confident INEC would conduct credible elections, down from 45 per cent in the two previous survey rounds.

Thirty-nine per cent said they were not confident in the commission, rising to 62 per cent in the Southeast and 57 per cent in the South-South.

Yiaga Africa’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, Safiya Bichi, said the findings showed that voter turnout was being undermined less by apathy than by conditions surrounding elections.

Bichi said: “Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, they see it as their duty, and they believe their votes can make a difference.

“What stands between that willingness and the ballot box is fear, distrust and money. Low turnout in Nigeria is a conversion problem, not an apathy problem.”

She added that electoral institutions and other relevant actors must address the factors discouraging voter participation.

“The responsibility for fixing it lies with the institutions and actors who control security, credibility and logistics,” Bichi said, adding that the window for action before the January 16, 2027, presidential election was short.

The survey also found that respondents trusted electoral technology more than institutions, with 49 per cent expressing trust in the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the INEC Result Viewing portal.

Awareness of electoral reforms rose from 24 per cent in December 2025 to 62 per cent, the report said.

On voters’ priorities, 49 per cent of respondents cited a desire for leadership change as their main motivation for voting, while the economy and jobs (38 per cent) and security (36 per cent) emerged as the leading policy concerns.

The survey found that 54 per cent of respondents disapproved of the President’s performance, while 71 per cent rated the economy as poor or very poor.

Yiaga said young people were less enthusiastic about voting than older respondents.

Only 40 per cent of young respondents said they were very likely to vote, compared with 64 per cent among respondents aged 61 and above.

Young people also reported greater fear of electoral violence, lower trust in INEC, and greater reliance on social media for election information.

The judiciary similarly recorded low public confidence as an election dispute-resolution institution, with 63 per cent of respondents saying they had little or no confidence that courts would resolve electoral disputes fairly.

The figure was highest in the South-South, where 81 per cent expressed little or no confidence in the judiciary’s ability to fairly determine election disputes. (The Nation)