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The Nigerian equity market stabilised on Monday, following a week of declines. Despite the previous pullback, the main index remains close to its last high this month. With persistent uncertainty in the Middle East, the energy sector could remain in focus.
While Nigeria is meeting its OPEC production quota, its output remains below that assumed in the 2026 budget. This recurring shortfall could strain public finances, which could negatively impact investor sentiment towards the economy and the broader stock market. The downward revisions in demand forecasts for 2026 by OPEC and IEA could add to the concerns.
However, crude prices continue to hold at elevated levels, supported by the lack of progress in diplomatic efforts in the Middle East as well as ongoing security risks and shipping disruptions. Any renewed tensions could drive crude prices up, supporting energy stocks, whereas progress towards de-escalation could have the opposite effect.
Looking ahead, markets could continue to monitor any geopolitical developments. Upcoming economic data releases could also affect monetary policy expectations and market direction. (TenTrade)
