Ahead of the August 15 governorship election in Osun State, no fewer than 73 election-related violent incidents resulting in 29 deaths have been recorded, with Osogbo emerging as the worst-hit area, a Pre-Election Security Risk Assessment (ESRA) by the Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) has revealed.

The report, presented in Abuja on Monday, identified about 12 local government areas as high-risk areas, warning that they require targeted security operations and political interventions to prevent violence and ensure a peaceful election.

The report, titled “2026 Osun Election Integrity and Security Assessment: Electoral Pressures, Risk Scenarios and Strategic Mitigation Priorities,” said the principal threat to the August 15 governorship election is not widespread violence across the state but the convergence of several political, criminal, operational, social, coercive and information pressures in a limited number of locations.

The assessment said electoral violence in Osun was increasingly becoming strategic rather than merely spontaneous, with incidents concentrated around politically significant locations and capable of being used to intimidate voters, suppress turnout and influence electoral outcomes.

According to the report, 54 of the 73 election-related violent incidents, representing 78 per cent, occurred between May and July 2026, coinciding with the intensification of political activities and campaigns.

The report said the trend suggested that intense political competition had overtaken ordinary criminality as the principal source of violence in the state.

It identified shootings and killings, physical assaults, intimidation and harassment, kidnappings, destruction of property and verbal attacks among the recurring forms of electoral violence recorded during the assessment period.

Osogbo, the state capital, emerged as the principal electoral violence hotspot in the assessment.

The report recorded 22 incidents in Osogbo, resulting in 15 fatalities, making the state capital the location with the highest concentration of incidents and deaths

The assessment attributed the prominence of Osogbo partly to its political importance and described it as a location where several drivers of electoral insecurity intersect.

The report also identified Ede South, Ede North, Egbedore, Iwo, Irewole, Ayedaade, Obokun, Oriade, Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Ife North and Olorunda among areas experiencing significant electoral pressure.

Osogbo and Ede South were classified as areas of critical electoral pressure, while 11 other local government areas were placed in the high-pressure category.

The assessment, however, stressed that violence was not evenly distributed across the state.

Instead, it said electoral pressure was concentrated in particular communities and political strongholds, providing an opportunity for security agencies to deploy resources according to the risk profile of each location.

Speaking during the presentation, KDI Executive Director, Bukola Idowu, said the organisation was particularly concerned about the strategic nature of the violence.

He said the assessment had identified approximately 12 high-risk local governments requiring both security operations and political interventions.

“We have identified about 12 local governments that are of high risk that need both operational security and political intervention so that we can have peaceful election in those local governments.”

Idowu said the organisation had identified several variables capable of triggering violence during the election, including problems with the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), the conduct of security agencies, political competition and the use of violence to suppress voter participation.

He urged relevant authorities to improve the reliability of BVAS ahead of the poll, particularly following the mock accreditation exercise conducted shortly before the election.

A professor of political science and member of the KDI election data room faculty, Ernest Ereke said the report recorded a 206 per cent increase in electoral violence between 2022 and 2026.

He linked the increase to broader socio-economic and political conditions, including poverty and the growing importance of political power as a means of accessing economic resources.

According to him, Nigeria’s difficult economic conditions have made political competition increasingly fierce.

“Governance and politics becomes competition for power, becomes a cutthroat competition. Because so many of us want to escape poverty, and then there is only one key industry that seems to be working.”

He described the report as providing a “political geography of electoral violence” in Osun, showing that incidents were concentrated in specific local government areas rather than spread uniformly throughout the state.

The professor said the concentration of incidents provided security agencies with an opportunity to tailor their strategies to the specific drivers of violence in each location.

National Security Consultant and retired Assistant Inspector-General of Police, Abutu Yaro, blamed political actors for much of the insecurity surrounding Nigerian elections.

Yaro said electoral insecurity did not arise by itself but was frequently sponsored and sustained by politicians seeking particular outcomes.

“Insecurity does not beat itself. It is beaten by political actors, funded by them, sponsored by them, navigated by them and designed for their preferred outcome.”

He said ordinary voters had little incentive to engage in electoral violence, arguing that farmers, drivers and market women generally wanted to cast their votes peacefully and see their preferred candidates win.

The retired police officer said political actors often hijack the process and create circumstances that provoke confrontation.

He urged politicians to exercise restraint, patriotism and respect for electoral rules.

“If political actors do not exercise restraint, do not exercise patriotism, do not play by the rules, certainly insecurity will thrive.”

The report called for coordinated action by INEC, security agencies, political parties, traditional institutions, civil society organisations and the media.

For INEC, it recommended early deployment of personnel and materials, logistics simulations, contingency plans for difficult locations and real-time monitoring of election-day operations. (Guardian)