Political calculations, shifting alliances and growing security concerns have make the forthcoming Osun State governorship election one of the most closely watched contests. Ismaeel Uthman examines the chances and challenges facing Governor Ademola Adeleke as he seeks a second term.

Three weeks to the Osun State governorship election, anxiety is mounting over fears that the poll could be marred by violence and electoral malpractices. The hitherto peaceful state has become a hotbed of political killings and violent attacks.

On August 15, 2,339,233 registered voters in the state (if all of them collect their PVCs) will troop to the 3,763 polling units and 332 wards across the 30 local governments and one area office to elect a governor.

While 14 political parties are participating in the election, only Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress and Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress have remained visible in terms of campaigns and political structures

However, Sunday PUNCH notes that Adeleke and Oyebamiji have largely dominated the political space through the instrument of power. Many residents of the state have also blamed both parties for the unabated political killings, alleging that they have enlisted the services of cultists, especially members of the Aiye and Eiye confraternities, to attack their opponents. The concerned residents also alleged that some candidates of the parties are cultists, making it easier to recruit members of the groups.

With a few days to the election, political pundits have analysed some of the factors that will shape the outcome of the poll, especially for Adeleke,.

Adeleke: Swimming in a stormy ocean

In 2022, Adeleke defeated then Governor Adegboyega Oyetola of the APC by 28,344 votes after polling 403,371 votes. Adeleke leveraged the division In the APC, as well as the sentiment and sympathy that he won the 2018 governorship election, to unseat the incumbent.

Sunday PUNCH also learnt that what worked in Adeleke’s favour in 2022 included security support and a neutral disposition by the Presidency headed by the late President Muhammadu Buhari.

Three years later, Adeleke, known by his Imole sobriquet, has continued to enjoy the support of thousands of voters outside his political party, Accord. The majority of civil servants and pensioners also appear committed to returning the governor for a second term, coupled with a spirited campaign by all the 25 members of the state House of Assembly.

Adeleke has also gained the support of the followers of former deputy governor of the state, Iyiola Omisore, who has distanced himself from the APC governorship campaign. Omisore’s loyalists, including commissioners and special advisers who served under Oyetola, have left the APC for the Accord Party in protest against the disqualification of the former APC National Secretary from the party’s governorship primary.

Similarly, a former Secretary to the State Government, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, known for his grassroots mobilisation across the state, has joined Adeleke in the Accord Party alongside thousands of his followers.

This is a major boost to Adeleke’s re-election bid in Iwo, coupled with his infrastructure projects that have endeared him to thousands of residents of the Odidere city.

Adeleke’s hometown and kinsmen have become fanatical about his second-term bid. The governor has transformed the ancient town of Ede with infrastructural projects, while many appointments have also gone to his kinsmen.

In 2022, Adeleke polled 43,368 votes against Oyetola’s 14,607 in Ede North and Ede South local governments. He also won Egbedore, Ede’s neighbouring local government, by a margin of 4,002 votes.

Also, many power blocs in Osogbo, a major decider of election winners in the state, stood with Adeleke and delivered 51,751 votes for him to defeat Oyetola, who polled 41,661 votes. Osogbo had, for years, been won by the progressives until 2022.

The turning political tide

However, the governor is now swimming in a different political ocean that appears more turbulent. While many people are impressed with his performance, especially in infrastructural development, others describe him as a poor manager. His performance will now be put to the test on election day.

Besides, Adeleke is facing a political firestorm from the APC, which has continued to frustrate his administration and threaten his re-election through various means. Currently, political analysts believe the judiciary and security structures are not favourably disposed to the governor, judging by recent developments in the state.

The APC has also wrested control of the local governments from the governor, as the party’s chairmen elected in the 2022 “Yes or No” local government election have continued to administer the councils and their funds since 2025.

Meanwhile, some of the major power blocs that contributed to Adeleke’s victory in 2022 have deserted him to align with his opponents. The Omoluabi Progressives, which later metamorphosed into the ADC, supported Adeleke in 2022. However, the bloc is now rooting for the emergence of Salaam as the next governor of the state.

Some APC chieftains, who spoke with Sunday PUNCH, said they had been praying against a last-minute coalition between the ADC and the Accord Party. According to analysts, any votes secured by the ADC would come at Adeleke’s expense and boost Oyebamiji’s chances.

Similarly, Adeleke has lost two senators and three House of Representatives members to the APC. One of them, Wole Oke, representing Obokun/Oriade Federal Constituency, is now the Director-General of the APC governorship campaign.

Uncertainty in Osogbo, Ijesaland, others

Analysts believe Osogbo, which hosts two local governments, has become a major battleground for Adeleke and Oyebamiji because of the intrigues and calculations involving the traditional institution, indigenous groups, political structures and other stakeholders in the state capital.

While the Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji, and some of his chiefs openly support Adeleke, some members of the Olomooba (princes and princesses’ clusters) have leaned towards the APC candidate, insisting they would not support Adeleke’s second term because of the alleged plan to cede part of Osogbo land to Ede, his hometown.

Findings by Sunday PUNCH revealed that the mobilisation efforts of the APC National Secretary, Ajibola Basiru, and the Executive Director, Marine and Operations, Nigerian Ports Authority, Lekan Badmus, are gaining momentum and could tilt the state capital in favour of the APC. A former Osogbo Local Government Chairman, Musa Adegoke, boasted that Oyebamiji would win Osogbo.

“This will not be like 2022. APC is going to win Osogbo this time around,” he said in a short conversation with our correspondent.

Political pundits familiar with the situation in the state told Sunday PUNCH that Adeleke does not have a strong footing in Atakunmosa East and Atakunmosa West local governments following the defection of the lawmaker representing Ijesa South Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, Sanya Omirin.

Despite the PDP’s unity in 2022, the APC defeated Adeleke in Atakunmosa East by 457 votes, while Adeleke won Atakunmosa West with 7,750 votes against Oyetola’s 6,601.

Some analysts believe the current political atmosphere in Ijesaland presents a grim picture of uncertainty for Adeleke. However, the Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party, Sunday Bisi, dismissed the concerns, insisting that Adeleke would win the zone. According to Bisi, the lawmakers’ defections would not affect the governor’s chances in the region or across the state.

“I can boldly say that APC has no footing in Ijesaland. Adeleke was at Esa-Oke on Wednesday to campaign, and the entire town was locked down for him. That was Wole Oke’s hometown. Forget about what they say, Adeleke will win Ijesaland,” Bisi said.

Similarly, the spokesman for the Imole Campaign Council for Adeleke’s re-election, Pelumi Olajengbesi, said the governor had a very strong footing in Ijesaland with “massive love” from the people.

Speaking on the defectors, Olajengbesi, who is the Ijesa North House of Representatives candidate of the Accord Party, said,

“Sanya Omirin’s and Fadahunsi’s defections are of no consequence. Omirin won his first election in 2023 because Adeleke supported him. The same applies to Fadahunsi, who had earlier contested twice and lost.

“On the other hand, Wole Oke used Adeleke’s goodwill to contest and win his last two elections because the people of Ijesa North were tired of him. He is no longer popular. He only comes home during elections, and the people don’t want him. You are going to see massive voting in Ijesaland in support of Adeleke. The governor has performed very well, with premium attention given to projects in our zone. After Adeleke, the next most popular person in Ijesaland is Aregbesola. So, the APC and its candidate are nowhere to be found.”

In Irewole/Isokan/Ayedaade Federal Constituency, some analysts believe Adeleke is likely to secure fewer votes than he did In 2022 because his main challenger, Oyebamiji, is from Ikire in Irewole Local Government Area. In the last governorship election, the APC defeated Adeleke in Ayedaade by 1,147 votes. He also lost Irewole, polling 14,216 votes against Oyetola’s 18,189, while he was defeated in Isokan by 56 votes.

The Director-General of the Osun West APC Governorship Campaign, Dotun Babayemi, who is from Ayedaade Local Government, declared that Adeleke would not win the federal constituency.

“There will be a repeat of a resounding victory for the APC in the coming election, even more than what was witnessed in 2022. This is neither a wish nor grandstanding. More than what was the situation in the last election, the APC has tremendously increased in size due to new members from other political parties,” he said.

The governor is also likely to receive fewer votes in Ejigbo, where Salaam hails from. In 2022, Adeleke polled 12,964 votes to come second to Oyetola, who received 14,638 votes. It is believed that the majority of the local government’s votes will go to Salaam, an indigene of Ejigbo.

The control of NURTW

Beyond defections and electoral calculations, another issue analysts believe could influence the election is the battle for control of commercial transport unions, particularly the National Union of Road Transport Workers.

The control of commercial transport unions in the state has also been politicised amid moves by the APC and Adeleke to take charge of the structures, especially the National Union of Road Transport Workers.

On July 20, the APC-elected local government chairmen announced the suspension of transport unions in the state after gunshots rocked motor parks following a protest led by an APC member, Kazeem Oyewale, against the Osun NURTW Chairman, Nurudeen Alowonle, a staunch supporter of Adeleke.

Forty-eight hours later, Oyewale took over the state secretariat of the NURTW, a move that apparently forced Adeleke to suspend the union’s operations. However, the national leadership of the NURTW on Friday rejected the suspension and appointed Oyewale as the chairman of a caretaker committee in the state.

Analysts explained that the struggle for control of the commercial transport unions was not unconnected with the belief that drivers would be used to transport election materials and that such control could influence the voting process.

“It is a strategic move; whoever controls the drivers may have an upper hand on election day, and it is part of the concern that the actors are planning to rig the August 15election. If a driver transporting election materials tells you that his vehicle is faulty, what will you do? That will cause a delay in the commencement of voting in the area he is going to. That is a tactical rigging plan,” an Osogbo-based political analyst, who spoke with Sunday PUNCH on condition of anonymity, said.

Adeleke camp dismisses APC threat

However, the Senior Special Assistant to the Osun State Governor on Renewable Energy, Funmiso Babarinde, countered Babayemi’s submission, saying Adeleke’s achievements over the last three years had convinced “the majority of the electorate” to vote for him for a second term.

According to Babarinde, Adeleke has delivered infrastructure projects and impacted lives through social intervention programmes that have endeared him to the people of the state. He maintained that despite the “political onslaught” by the APC, the governor would win the August 15 election by a landslide.

“This is not a prediction; it is a fact. Adeleke will win the election, and all the challenges and uncivilised activities of the APC against the governor will be put to rest,” he said.

Olajengbesi also downplayed the APC’s efforts to reclaim the state, describing them as futile.

“What is happening today is not new to Adeleke. We were not in government in 2022. The APC had both the federal and state governments, yet Adeleke won despite that. This time around, they still have federal might, but it does not matter to the people of Osun. They are ready to vote for Adeleke. What is important is that the people must come out to vote and the votes must count. After that, the election is over,” he added.

As the August 15 election approaches, Adeleke enters the race with the advantages of incumbency, visible infrastructure projects and support in parts of Osun. However, defections by key political figures, shifting alliances, the APC’s renewed mobilisation and the battle over strategic political structures have made what initially appeared to be a straightforward re-election bid a far more competitive contest. (Sunday PUNCH)