Just days to the June 20 governorship election in Ekiti State, the political atmosphere is steadily reaching a crescendo as parties intensify last-minute campaigns and voter mobilisation efforts across the 16 local government areas of the state. In this report, ’YOMI AYELESO examines the factors likely to shape the outcome of the election, the strengths and challenges confronting the leading political parties.

The people of Ekiti State will on Saturday, June 20, head to the polls to elect a governor who will steer the affairs of the state for another four-year term beginning from October 16, 2026. Following months of political campaigns, consultations, grassroots engagements and strategic mobilisation, candidates and political parties are now making final efforts to consolidate support and secure victory.

Unlike previous governorship contests in the state, particularly the fiercely contested 2022 election, developments in the months preceding this year’s exercise suggest a different political reality. While the contest remains open, many political observers and analysts believe the incumbent governor enjoys a considerable advantage heading into the election.

Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji of the All Progressives Congress (APC), popularly known as BAO, secured his first term in office in 2022 after defeating former Governor Segun Oni of the then Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Bisi Kolawole of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Oyebanji polled 187,057 votes, representing 53 per cent of the valid votes cast. Segun Oni garnered 82,211 votes, representing 23 per cent, while Kolawole scored 67,457 votes, accounting for 19 per cent of the votes.

As the state prepares for another election cycle, the political dynamics have shifted. While the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has confirmed that 15 political parties are participating in the poll, prevailing political realities indicate that the contest has largely narrowed to three parties — the APC, the PDP and the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

• APC and Oyebanji’s quest for continuity

There is little doubt that Governor Oyebanji enters the election as the candidate to beat. In the last three years and eight months, the governor, who hails from Ikogosi-Ekiti in Ekiti Central Senatorial District, has carved a reputation for inclusive governance and a leadership style that many residents describe as markedly different from those of his predecessors. His administration’s six-point Shared Prosperity Agenda has become the central pillar of his re-election campaign.

Across critical sectors including education, healthcare, infrastructure, agriculture, economic development and social investment, the administration has implemented programmes aimed at improving the welfare of residents. The impact of these interventions has been felt among civil servants, pensioners, artisans, women, transport workers, youths and vulnerable groups across the state.

The governor’s achievements and consensus-building approach to governance have attracted endorsements from across political divides. Notably, four former governors of the state, Adeniyi Adebayo, Ayodele Fayose, Dr Kayode Fayemi and Chief Segun Oni, have publicly expressed support for his re-election bid. Influential figures within the state’s elite class, including legal luminaries such as Chief Afe Babalola, SAN and Chief Wole Olanipekun, SAN, have also identified with the administration.

Beyond elite endorsements, the APC enjoys significant structural advantages. The party controls all nine National Assembly seats from the state, 26 seats in the Ekiti State House of Assembly, the 16 local government councils and the 22 Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs). Over the past three years, more than 300 groups, associations, communities and traditional institutions across the state have declared support for Oyebanji’s second-term ambition. These factors have strengthened the belief among APC supporters that the party is on course for a convincing victory.

However, despite the favourable outlook, challenges remain. One factor capable of creating some internal discomfort is the outcome of the recently concluded APC State and National Assembly primaries. Of the six House of Representatives members currently serving, only three secured return tickets, while three lost out. Similarly, 20 out of the 26 members of the State House of Assembly failed to obtain tickets for another term, leaving pockets of dissatisfaction within the party.

Should Governor Oyebanji secure victory on Saturday, he would set a new political record as the first governor in Ekiti State’s history to win two consecutive terms in office.

• PDP’s Oluyede and the narrow road to victory

For the PDP, the June 20 election presents both an opportunity and a formidable challenge. The party enters the race weakened by years of internal divisions and factional disputes that have affected its cohesion and electoral strength. Nonetheless, its candidate, Dr Wole Oluyede, remains optimistic about his chances and has continued to project confidence throughout the campaign.

Oluyede, an indigene of Ikere-Ekiti in Ekiti South Senatorial District, is no stranger to Ekiti politics. He contested the APC governorship primary in 2018, later emerged as the ADC governorship candidate in 2022, and is now flying the PDP flag in the current contest. His repeated participation in Ekiti’s electoral cycles has helped maintain his visibility among voters.

His home town of Ikere-Ekiti, one of the state’s largest voting blocs after Ado-Ekiti, could provide a significant electoral base. The argument in some quarters that the community should produce a governor rather than continue occupying the deputy governor’s office may resonate with sections of the electorate.

The broader agitation for an Ekiti South governor also remains a factor. Since the creation of the state and the return to democratic governance in 1999, no governor has emerged from the southern senatorial district. Although zoning is not dominating campaign conversations as strongly as in previous elections, many residents of the zone still believe the time has come for power to shift southward.

However, any sentiment favouring the South Senatorial District may not exclusively benefit Oluyede, as ADC candidate Ambassador Dare Bejide also comes from the same zone.

Perhaps the biggest challenge confronting the PDP is the position of former Governor Ayodele Fayose, widely regarded as the party’s most influential figure in Ekiti politics. Fayose has openly endorsed Governor Oyebanji’s re-election and has consistently mobilised support for the APC candidate. Given Fayose’s enduring influence among party faithful and sections of the PDP structure, political observers believe his stance has significantly complicated the PDP’s pathway to victory.

The party’s deputy governorship candidate, Deji Ogunsakin from Ado-Ekiti, is expected to help galvanise support in the state capital, which remains the largest voting centre in Ekiti.

• ADC battles structural limitations despite growing appeal

The ADC has also emerged as a notable contender in the election. Its candidate, Ambassador Dare Bejide, is a familiar face in Ekiti politics, having served as Secretary to the State Government and Nigeria’s Ambassador to Canada. The seasoned politician and elder statesman from Ilawe-Ekiti has positioned himself as a credible alternative to both the APC and PDP.

The ADC gained momentum following the influx of prominent opposition politicians who adopted the party as a coalition platform last year. This development generated expectations that the party could become a major force in the governorship race but happenings in recent weeks and months are suggesting the fact that the ADC might not constitute threat for the office.

Among its notable figures are former Deputy Governor Professor Kolapo Olusola-Eleka, former Commissioner for Information Akin Omole, philanthropist Funsho Ayeni and several other influential politicians. Despite these strengths, the ADC faces a significant challenge: the absence of an extensive grassroots structure comparable to those of the APC and PDP.

Political observers argue that while the party enjoys visibility among politically active groups and sections of urban voters, translating that goodwill into votes across thousands of polling units may prove difficult.

The party’s deputy governorship candidate, Ayodeji Babatola, a former APC chieftain from Ado-Ekiti, is expected to strengthen ADC’s appeal in the state capital.

• The final verdict

As Ekiti voters prepare to make their choices, the election appears, on the surface, to favour the incumbent governor and the APC, buoyed by widespread endorsements, strong grassroots structures and the advantages of incumbency, including achievements in office. Yet elections are ultimately decided by voters, and the level of turnout, voter sentiment and election-day dynamics will play crucial roles in determining the final outcome.

Beyond the contest itself, the June 20 governorship election will serve as an important test for Nigeria’s electoral process under the new Electoral Act 2026 and a major indicator of political trends ahead of the 2027 general elections. (TRIBUNE)