The opposition coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) may already be drifting toward its first major internal crisis in the aftermath of its concluded presidential primary, as the win by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, has reopened the fragile debate over zoning, southern power rotation and the survival of opposition unity ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Although the ADC leadership projected the coalition as a broad national alliance capable of challenging President Bola Tinubu, the final result last night from the collation which pronounced Atiku with an emphatic win appear to expose the same regional contradictions that weakened opposition parties in the build-up to the 2023 elections. Atiku polled 1.8 million votes while Rotimi Amaechi secured 504,117 votes and businessman Mohammed Hayatu-Deen scored 177,120 votes.

Earlier, results from several northern states showed Atiku establishing an early dominance over former Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi, recording wide margins in states such as Gombe, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara. Amaechi, however, retained influence in parts of the South-South, particularly Bayelsa, while businessman Mohammed Hayatu-Deen remained far behind.

But beyond the figures, the real battle may begin after the final declaration of results. At the centre of the brewing tension is the argument that the South should be allowed to complete eight years in power following Tinubu’s emergence in 2023. The same zoning dispute contributed heavily to the collapse of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) before the last general election and now appears to be resurfacing within the ADC coalition.

Many southern stakeholders within the coalition are reportedly uncomfortable with the possibility of another northern candidacy barely four years after power returned to the South. Youth leaders within the ADC in Enugu had warned that supporting Atiku does not reflect the dominant mood across the South-East, insisting that equity and fairness require power to remain in the South until 2031.

The development has now raised a critical question within opposition circles: can Atiku defeat Tinubu with mainly northern support if he loses the backing of influential southern figures like Amaechi?

That question may ultimately determine whether the coalition survives beyond the primary.

While Atiku’s dominance reflects the numerical strength of northern political blocs already aligned with him long before the coalition talks began, presidential elections in Nigeria are rarely won on northern votes alone without substantial penetration into the South.

Tinubu’s 2023 victory was built not only on his traditional South-West base but also on strategic gains across parts of the North-Central and North-West despite stiff resistance from PDP and Labour Party strongholds. For ADC to pose a serious threat in 2027, the coalition would require a broader alliance stretching across the South-East, South-South and sections of the North.

That calculation becomes increasingly difficult if Amaechi’s southern bloc becomes disillusioned with the process, particularly after Obi’s reported exit from ADC for the NDC.

Although ADC leaders repeatedly claimed that Atiku and Amaechi agreed to support whoever emerges from the primary, signs of distrust have continued to surface beneath public declarations of unity. Several southern politicians fear that presenting another northern candidate against Tinubu could hand the APC a powerful regional campaign narrative that the opposition is attempting to truncate southern power after only one term.

That argument could resonate strongly in the South-West, where Tinubu maintains extensive political influence, and in parts of the South-South where zoning sentiments remain potent despite worsening economic conditions. Even within the South-East, where Obi remains highly influential, many voters may resist abandoning the broader southern presidency argument for another northern candidacy.

The danger for ADC is that the coalition may begin to look less like a national rescue platform and more like a northern political realignment. That perception could deepen if Amaechi distances himself from the party after the primary.

Though the former Rivers governor publicly pledged to support whoever emerges as candidate, agitation among his supporters suggests that loyalty to the coalition may be conditional. Sources within the party said Amaechi’s camp believes the zoning question was deliberately avoided to favour Atiku’s ambition.

There are also concerns over structural imbalance within ADC. Unlike Atiku, who enjoys entrenched political networks across several northern states, Amaechi is still considered relatively new within the platform after leaving the APC. Some of his allies fear that once Atiku secures the ticket, the coalition structure could become fully dominated by northern political interests, a development similar to what triggered the rebellion of the G5 governors within the PDP before the 2023 election.

If Amaechi withdraws active support or adopts a passive role, ADC risks losing critical influence in Rivers and parts of the South-South where he still commands loyal political networks. More significantly, the coalition could lose the moral narrative that once distinguished it from the fractured PDP and the internally divided Labour Party.

Immediate past national chairman of ADC, Ralph Nwosu, said the party leadership was already addressing frayed nerves while awaiting the outcome of the primary results. According to him, the ADC remains committed to proving that internal democracy is still possible within Nigeria’s political system.

A former Deputy Governor of Oyo State, Hazeem Gbolarumi, also argued that it was too early to write off the opposition, noting that last-minute political agreements could still reshape the coalition ahead of 2027.

Momodu defends ADC primary, urges Amaechi, Hayatu-Deen to await outcome

A chieftain of the African Democratic Congress and veteran journalist, Dele Momodu, has defended the party’s presidential primary election amid allegations of irregularities, urging aggrieved aspirants Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi and Muhammad Hayatu-Deen to allow the process to be fully concluded before raising concerns.

Momodu’s remarks followed the emergence of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as winner of the ADC presidential primaries after securing victories in more than 20 states.

Amaechi and Hayatu-Deen had challenged the exercise over alleged irregularities in the process.

Reacting to the complaints, Momodu said it was surprising that some contestants dismissed the exercise before the final collation of results.

“What I find strange is the fact that before the conclusion of the election, two of the contestants did not wait before writing it off. Overnight, I looked through the states that have already been collated and declared, and I could see a fair pattern,” he said.

He appealed to the aggrieved aspirants to remain calm and allow the process to run its course before making further allegations.

“I plead once again with Rotimi Amaechi and Muhammad Hayatu-Deen to please cool tempers and let the process be concluded before they raise concerns,” he added.

Momodu also urged party members to prioritise unity and avoid actions capable of undermining the ADC’s preparations ahead of the 2027 general election.

“If they love the party and they love Nigeria, and they truly want to remove Tinubu, then this is not the time for this type of bickering. For me, it is very concerning,” he said.

How Atiku widened gap over Amaechi, Hayatu-Deen in ADC primary race

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar took a commanding early lead in the African Democratic Congress presidential primary on Tuesday night, polling more than 1.4 million votes across 24 states and the Federal Capital Territory before the exercise was abruptly adjourned near midnight.

The results announced before the adjournment suggested that what began as a competitive three-way race was rapidly turning into a one-sided contest, with Atiku overwhelming his rivals in several northern states and opening margins increasingly difficult to close as collation moved toward its final stretch mathematically.

The scale of some of the figures announced at the venue also triggered quiet discussions among delegates and party officials about turnout strength, regional dominance and the widening gap between the former vice president and his challengers.

It was observed at the national collation centre in Abuja that the exercise, chaired by Chairman of the Presidential Primary Election Committee, Ikechi Emenike, was suspended shortly before midnight after hours of state-by-state declarations by returning officers.

Delegates and party officials huddled in small groups around the hall as fresh figures arrived from across the country deep into the night, with many already treating the remaining declarations as a battle over the final margin rather than the eventual winner.

Announcing the postponement, Emenike said the decision was taken to allow Muslim party members to celebrate Eid al-Kabir and because some returning officers were unable to arrive in Abuja due to flight disruptions.

“Collation for the remaining states will commence by 8:00 p.m. tomorrow (Wednesday). Some returning officers had flight challenges getting to Abuja,” he added.

Before the adjournment, results from 24 states and the FCT had already been declared, leaving 12 states yet to be announced.

The states announced included Borno, Kebbi, Anambra, Abia, Ekiti, Ondo, Gombe, Oyo, Imo, Yobe, Nasarawa, Enugu, Benue, Osun, Adamawa, Kogi, Kano, Akwa Ibom, Sokoto, Taraba, Zamfara and the FCT.

The declared figures showed Atiku dominating key voting blocs, particularly across the North, where he opened overwhelming leads in several states central to the party’s delegate arithmetic.

In Kano, another major battleground, the former vice president polled 155,595 votes, while former Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi scored 9,994 and Hayatu-Deen secured 15,914.

Gombe produced one of the night’s most lopsided outcomes, with Atiku polling 136,933 votes against Amaechi’s 1,140 and Hayatu-Deen’s 455.

The former vice president also posted commanding victories in Borno and Sokoto, polling 86,084 and 63,823 votes, respectively, as both challengers struggled to gain meaningful ground.

Amaechi recorded his strongest resistance in states such as Benue, Taraba and Kogi, though the margins remained insufficient to significantly slow Atiku’s momentum heading into the remaining declarations.

In Benue, Amaechi scored 30,881 votes against Atiku’s 55,177, while Hayatu-Deen polled 22,141.

Taraba produced 25,150 votes for Amaechi, while Atiku polled 48,523 and Hayatu-Deen secured 8,369 votes.

In Kogi, Amaechi scored 23,573 votes, while Atiku led with 48,351 and Hayatu-Deen polled 9,173.

Hayatu-Deen’s strongest outings came in Benue, Adamawa and Kano, but the businessman struggled to break Atiku’s dominance in most of the states declared before the adjournment.

By the time collation was suspended, conversations inside the hall had shifted from who might win the primary to the scale of Atiku’s lead, the political statement behind the huge margins emerging from key northern states and whether any of the remaining declarations could significantly alter the trajectory of the race.

Meanwhile, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar has congratulated former Minister of Transportation, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, on his 61st birthday, describing him as a patriot whose years of public service continue to inspire Nigerians.

Amaechi, who was born on May 27, 1965, in Ubima, Ikwerre Local Government Area of Rivers State, marked his birthday yesterday amid tensions surrounding the presidential primary of the African Democratic Congress.

In a message posted on his X account, Atiku commended Amaechi’s contributions to Rivers State and the country.

“Happy Birthday to my brother and fellow patriot, H.E. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi,” Atiku wrote.

“Your courage, conviction, and years of service to Rivers State and Nigeria continue to inspire many across the nation.

“I wish you good health, strength, and many more years of impactful service to our dear country.”

ADC urges Nigerians to keep hope alive

The African Democratic Congress has urged Nigerians not to lose hope in the country despite prevailing economic and security challenges as Muslims celebrate Eid-el-Kabir.

The opposition party conveyed the message in a statement issued yesterday by its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi.

“The African Democratic Congress extends warm Eid-el-Kabir greetings to Muslim faithful across Nigeria and around the world as we join millions in celebrating this sacred season of sacrifice, faith, obedience, and compassion,” Abdullahi said.

The party acknowledged the economic difficulties confronting many Nigerians, including rising food prices, unemployment and insecurity.

“As a party, we recognise that this year’s Sallah is coming at an exceptionally difficult period for many Nigerians. Across the country, millions of families are struggling under the weight of rising food prices, worsening economic hardship, unemployment, and growing insecurity,” the statement read.

The ADC added that many citizens were uncertain about the future, with households facing severe hardship across the country.

Despite the challenges, the party urged Nigerians to remain hopeful and continue believing in the possibility of national recovery.

“As Nigerians celebrate this Sallah, we urge all citizens not to surrender to the despair that is widespread under this government. The darkness of today must not blind us to the possibilities of tomorrow. History has shown that nations recover when citizens refuse to stop believing in a better future,” the statement added. (The Guardian)