The All Progressives Congress (APC) is sitting on a keg of political gunpowder. Unless the party’s national leadership, and by extension, the presidency act swiftly and decisively, the ruling party faces the real prospect of a coordinated internal revolt that could significantly damage its electoral fortunes in the 2027 general elections.

The threat faced by the APC can be described as hypothetical. It is gathering momentum in the shadows of a primary process that many aggrieved aspirants describe, in unguarded moments, as a carefully choreographed exercise in exclusion.

At the centre of the brewing storm is a class of aspirants who invested heavily, in some cases, spending tens of millions of Naira on expression of interest and nomination forms, only to find themselves screened out, disqualified or defeated through processes they regard as manipulated.

What makes their situation uniquely combustible is a legal trap they walked into without fully appreciating its implications; the amended Electoral Act, which has effectively sealed the defection route that aggrieved aspirants have historically used as a release valve in previous election cycles.

Under the amended Section 77 of the Electoral Act 2026, any individual who knowingly maintains membership of two political parties simultaneously forfeits recognition as a valid member of either party, pending regularisation in accordance with the Act’s provisions.

More critically, defection now attracts a penalty of a two-year custodial sentence, a fine of N10 million, or both.

For aspirants who previously regarded cross-party movement as a legitimate political option, this provision has slammed a door they did not know was about to close.

Many, sources confirm, realised the full weight of this restriction only after they had already committed their financial resources to the primary process.

Confronted with no viable electoral alternative, the calculus for many of these aggrieved aspirants has shifted from seeking fortune elsewhere to seeking retribution from within.

Anti-party activities, that most corrosive of internal political weapons, have become the instrument of last resort for those who feel they have nothing left to lose.

The scale of the disqualifications alone is alarming. Over 180 APC aspirants across the country have been screened out of the primary processes. Many more have been suspended by the party for daring to seek legal redress against what they described as the imposition of candidates.

In several states, the hand of the governor in determining outcomes has been barely concealed. The consensus candidacy model, ostensibly a mechanism for orderly agreement, has, in practice, functioned as a gubernatorial veto, with state executives using their control of party structures to pre-select loyalists and present the outcome as collective will.

The APC national chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, has responded to the gathering storm with a combination of warning and appeal that has satisfied neither side of the argument.

In a recent statement that some party observers described as adding salt to an open wound, Yilwatda threatened disgruntled aspirants with immediate suspension should they instigate violence, sponsor unrest or engage in anti-party conduct capable of undermining the integrity of the primary process.

“In every democratic contest, only one person will eventually emerge victorious,” he said. “What is important is the spirit with which the process is approached. I urge all aspirants to display maturity, patriotism and good sportsmanship by embracing the outcome of the primaries in the overall interest of the party and our democracy.”

The appeal, however sincere, collides with a ground reality that the party’s own internal intelligence cannot credibly deny. In Rivers State, the unresolved political war between FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike and Governor Siminalayi Fubara continues to cast a long shadow over the APC’s ability to present a united front.

The question of whether Fubara and aspirants aligned with him would campaign actively for APC candidates after a primary conducted under Wike’s considerable influence remains unanswered, and the silence itself is telling.

In Delta State, the governorship contest between former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, who carries the backing of incumbent Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, and Senator Ned Nwoko promises to be a collision of significant political weight.

In Imo State, Governor Hope Uzodinma’s Senate ambitions have placed him on a direct collision course with former Governor Rochas Okorocha, a man whose capacity for political disruption when aggrieved is well documented.

In neither state is it credible to suggest that the losing side will dissolve quietly into party loyalty.

The APC National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, has publicly dismissed fears of implosion, insisting that disqualifications and sanctions are routine features of any electoral process and that the consensus model contains adequate safeguards against arbitrary imposition. “There is no spectre of implosion in the APC,” he declared.

However, a senior party official, who spoke to Daily Sun on condition of anonymity, offered a more candid assessment of the internal landscape. While acknowledging that some aspirants are political pragmatists who purchased nomination forms primarily as bargaining chips for future appointments or settlements, the official conceded that genuinely aggrieved participants represent a different and more dangerous category entirely.

“The party got it wrong in ceding its statutory responsibility to state governors to oversee the sale of nomination forms for state assembly seats, which resulted in anointed loyalists being installed as nominees.

“I will not rule out the possibility of genuinely aggrieved aspirants working against the party, especially with the anger of the amended Electoral Act stopping them from exploring any opportunity in another political platform. Some will even go as far as instituting legal action against our candidates,” the official admitted.

The broader political context sharpens the danger considerably. The APC is already navigating a fractured Progressive Governors’ Forum, a restless opposition that is consolidating around new platforms, and an electorate whose patience with economic hardship has been stretched to its limits.

An internal revolt driven by disenfranchised aspirants, operating with local knowledge, existing networks and the cold motivation of men who feel they have been robbed in broad daylight, could prove more damaging to the party’s 2027 prospects than any challenge the opposition is currently capable of mounting.

The party’s national leadership has been warned. Whether it acts on that warning with the urgency the situation demands remains the defining question of the weeks ahead. (The Sun)