The North East zone of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is witnessing heightened political tension as powerful figures at both federal and state levels jostle to install preferred candidates ahead of the party’s primaries for the 2027 general election.

The APC, in its revised timetable, has scheduled its presidential primary for May 23, 2026. Governorship primaries are billed for May 21, while House of Representatives, Senate and State Assembly primaries will hold on May 15, 18 and 20, respectively.

Across the North East, succession battles have intensified, particularly as five of the six governors in the zone are rounding off their second terms.

The APC currently controls Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Adamawa and Taraba States. However, the Taraba governor, Agbu Kefas, is in his first term and just recently defected from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Bauchi State, until the reported defection weekend of Governor Mohammed Bala to Allied People’s Movement (APM), remained under the PDP, though internal crises within the opposition party have made the state politically competitive.

At the centre of the unfolding drama are incumbent governors and influential stakeholders determined to shape the emergence of candidates who would safeguard their political structures and interests beyond 2027.

Shettima, Zulum reach truce in Borno after intense rivalry

Babagana Zulum, Borno State governor, and Kashim Shettima, Nigeria’s vice president, were locked in a fierce battle over the party’s governorship ticket for weeks. Recall that Shettima is former governor of the state.

Zulum openly backed Mustapha Gubio as his preferred successor, while Shettima was believed to be supporting Kaka Shehu Lawan, senator representing Borno Central.

The rivalry created visible cracks within the state chapter of the APC and raised concerns about a potential split.

However, after a series of high-level consultations, negotiations and political realignments, the crisis was resolved. Shettima led a reconciliation process that culminated in the adoption of Gubio as the consensus governorship candidate.

The agreement was reached during a marathon meeting in Abuja attended by key stakeholders, including Maina Maaji Lawan, former governor; Ali Dalori, APC deputy national chairman (North); Ali Ndume, senator representing Borno South; Tahir Monguno, senator representing Borno North; and Kaka Shehu Lawan.

Lawan subsequently stepped down from the race and opted to pursue a return to the Senate, a move seen as critical in averting a divisive primary. President Bola Tinubu was also said to have played a behind-the-scenes role in facilitating the resolution.

Zulum later led Gubio and other party stakeholders to Maiduguri in what observers described as a symbolic show of unity. Addressing supporters at the Government House, Zulum described the development as a reflection of the state’s political maturity.

Abubakar Mohammed Kareto, a public affairs analyst, noted that consensus arrangements often emerge from intense negotiations. He described the resolution as a significant moment for political stability in the state.

Ribadu, Fintiri camps intensify contest in Adamawa

Ahmadu Fintiri, Adamawa State governor, and Nuhu Ribadu, national security adviser are emerging as key figures in the battle for political control of the state ahead of the primaries.

Although the APC is seeking to strengthen its foothold in Adamawa, the contest within its ranks is becoming increasingly competitive, with multiple aspirants positioning themselves for the governorship ticket.

Prominent names in circulation include Felix Tangwami, former commissioner for health; Ahmed Tijjani Galadima; Abdulrahman Haske; Joel Madaki; Bakare Gerei; and Aminu Iya Abbas.

As primaries approach, aspirants have raised concerns about transparency and fairness in the selection process. Many have called on party leadership to ensure a level playing field, warning that perceived imposition of candidates could deepen divisions.

Tangwami, Madaki, Gerei, Abbas and Haske, in separate declarations, reaffirmed their loyalty to the party while stressing the need for credible primaries that reflect democratic principles.

Tuggar, Abubakar, Wunti lead crowded race in Bauchi

Yusuf Tuggar, former minister of foreign affairs; Mohammad Abdullahi Abubakar, former governor of Bauchi State; Bala Wunti, oil and gas executive; and Shehu Buba Umar, senator representing Bauchi South, are among the leading contenders in what is shaping up to be one of the most competitive governorship races in the state.

Others in the race include Nura Manu Soro and several emerging political actors, further complicating the contest.

A major point of contention is the zoning of the party’s ticket. Bauchi South, which has seven local government areas, is widely regarded as a decisive voting bloc.

Aspirants from Bauchi North, however, have expressed dissatisfaction, arguing that the zone has been consistently sidelined. While Tuggar is from the northern zone, Umar, Wunti and Abubakar are from the South, deepening the divide within the party.

Political observers say reaching a consensus among the aspirants may prove difficult, given the entrenched interests and regional considerations. There are also concerns that internal disagreements could affect the party’s chances in the general election.

Uncertainty over consensus plan in Gombe

Inuwa Yahaya, Gombe State governor, is reportedly working towards producing a consensus candidate, though signals from within the party suggest underlying tensions.

A wide array of aspirants have declared interest, including Isa Ali Ibrahim Pantami, former minister of communications; Umaru Kwairanga, businessman; Jamilu Isiyaku Gwamna; Saidu Ahmed Alkali, former minister of transportation; Usman Bello Kumo; Aminu Yuguda; Abubakar Bappah; Muhammad Gambo Magaji; Yunusa Yakubu; Abubakar Sadiq Shu’aibu; Sa’adatu Mustapha, the only female aspirant; and Aliyu Mohammed, popularly known as Kombat.

Despite indications that the governor favours a consensus arrangement, not all aspirants appear aligned with the plan.

Alkali’s absence at a recent stakeholders’ meeting convened by Governor Yahaya has fuelled speculation about possible dissent, with insiders suggesting he may be relying on support from Abuja.

Endorsement sparks division in Yobe

Mai Mala Buni, Yobe State governor, and Ibrahim Gaidam, former governor and current minister, had presided over a stakeholders’ meeting that endorsed Baba Mallam Wali as the party’s consensus governorship candidate.

However, the decision has triggered backlash within the party. Ibrahim Bomai, a governorship aspirant, rejected the endorsement, describing it as undemocratic and calling for a transparent selection process. Tumsa, another aspirant, also dismissed the move as an imposition.

In contrast, former Senate President Ahmed Lawan backed the consensus decision and urged party members to remain united. The Yobe APC Critical Stakeholders Forum defended Wali’s endorsement, describing him as qualified and well-suited for leadership, while emphasising the importance of consensus in preserving party cohesion.

Analysts weigh in

With the primaries fast approaching, the APC in the North East faces a delicate balancing act between managing internal rivalries and presenting a united front. Analysts warn that failure to reconcile competing interests could lead to defections, parallel structures or weakened electoral performance.

For now, the battle lines remain drawn, and the coming weeks are expected to test the party’s capacity to manage its internal democracy while maintaining cohesion across the region.

Jackson Lekan Ojo, political analyst, warned that the party could face internal crises due to its open-door policy. In a telephone interview, Ojo told BusinessDay that the influx of diverse political actors could trigger serious implosion, especially where expectations such as automatic tickets are unmet.

He noted that the power vested in governors over candidate selection could further deepen tensions, particularly in states where party stakeholders are at odds with sitting governors.

According to him, this may force aggrieved politicians to seek alternatives or mobilise support for opposition parties.

Also, Bernard Mikko, a political scientist, told BusinessDay that internal party dynamics would ultimately shape electoral outcomes.

Mikko, a former federal lawmaker, said governors remain the dominant force in state politics and should be accorded due deference, even by the president, in local political matters.

According to him, in situations of conflict between governors and other political actors, the governor’s position should prevail through consultation.

Mikko argued that electoral success depends largely on candidate selection, noting that those in government form only a small fraction of the voting population.

“They are not up to 10% of the electorate in any state. The party must therefore present candidates with broad, cross-cultural appeal,” he said. He added that popular or widely accepted candidates could attract votes beyond party lines, reducing the impact of defections.

“Even members of other parties can vote for APC candidates if they are appealing enough. The real challenge is choosing the right candidates,” he stated.

However, APC National Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, said the party had anticipated such challenges and put mechanisms in place to address them. (BusinessDay)