The current Iran/ US war has upended many things around the world. Oil – refined and crude – is the fuel that powers the world. The Middle-East, the epicenter of this war, is also the seat of major oil producing countries. It is not surprising therefore, that the sudden disruption in the smooth flow of oil has immediately led to an abrupt disruption of life as we know it around the world. Global economic forecasts are now gloomy with many fearing the worst for years to come. Nations, even economically strong ones, are adjusting their forecasts. Some are staring recession in the face. Asian countries are rationing energy. The planting season is here and fertilizers are in short supply worldwide. This means global hunger is looming. And if the situation with the Strait of Hormuz is not quickly straightened out, this war might be the equivalent of an Economic World War! All because of a war that is badly planned and badly executed. Now, if strong, sturdy trees are bowing, almost to the ground, to the economic gale that is sweeping across the world, what hope have weak trees? Would they not be uprooted and swept into gullies?

A war against Iran had been on the cards for years. Decades even. Somehow, calm, sane heads had always prevailed in deference to the law of unintended consequences. Until now when all hell has been let loose. Have we, as Nigerians, wondered what would have happened if this war had erupted just three years ago? We are moaning and groaning about the jump in fuel price as we should, because of its impact on our pockets. But the hard truth is that ours is less than the average price of fuel around the world in dollar terms. The bigger truth is that we are fortunate to even have fuel. We are ‘lucky’ – because that is the word- to have a functioning refinery at these auspicious times. Otherwise, the issue would have been availability and not price. Since the war started over the past month and a half, I had discussed with three former major oil industry players including a past Chairman and a past CEO of NNPC. My poser to them was on what would have happened if we didn’t have Dangote refinery. They gave slightly different responses. The consensus however, was that Nigeria would have been in deep trouble. But we don’t need an oil expert to tell us that. The petrol stations would have been empty by now and whatever fuel was available would have moved to black market where it would probably sell between six thousand to ten thousand Naira per litre since we neither have the reserves nor the financial muscle to compete for a globally dwindling commodity. If we felt life is hard now, we can imagine what life would have been without a refinery.

I was invited to an Easter lunch by a special ‘aburo’ who had just moved into a new home. Among the six or so guests invited was a retired NNPC top Executive. He was on seat when the Port Harcourt refinery was built. Not only was he at NNPC long enough to witness the birth – and seeming death - of the refineries, he occupied strategic positions for the most part, because of his expertise. I asked him directly why the refineries stopped working. His answer wasn’t as direct. Instead, he gave meaningful insights into the overbearing influence of successive military governments in the operations of NNPC, fueled mainly by the drive to make money through oil deals. Stopping fuel imports which would have happened if the refineries were working well, wasn’t in their interest. He also pointed to the role of technicians who became complicit in making sure the refineries did not work optimally so as to give reasons to support importation. My takeaway is that powerful officers largely in the military era, aided by some technocrats, sabotaged the smooth functioning of the refineries directly and indirectly for personal gains. This is apart from outrageously inflated cost of building the refineries which he spelt out. That culture of sabotage is still with us and it almost affected the Dangote Refinery too but for the stubbornness, the deep pocket and the conviction of its owner.

If a government cannot protect its own enterprise, then what hope does a private enterprise have? What happened to the Petrochemical Industry? The Steel Industry? The Paper Industry? The Automobile Industry to mention but a few? What happened to the dream of an industrialized Nigeria which looked so promising in the 70s and 80s? Every successive government talks about investments. Each government lips – or is it lisps – ‘Buy Nigeria’. Yet, the minute an entrepreneur identifies a need and mobilizes resources to fill that need, the same government will grant a waiver to a favored ally to import. Governments talk about the ease of doing business, but the road to privately funded enterprises is full of landmines. Many of these mines are set up by government policies and officials who prefer to milk than to nurture. The result is that the richest businessmen are those who do ‘business’ with governments at different levels. Closely followed by importers of so called ‘essential commodities’. It boils down to ‘reading the lips’ of governments if one hopes to succeed in business in Nigeria. it is sad.

A further proof of our hypocritical and self-serving governance is in the way we rate our institutions. We have graduates of Polytechnics and technical schools who know more theory than practical. Graduates who knew before writing their final papers that the opportunity to practice their trade effectively isn’t there. We have research institutions which are not held accountable for the quantum of researches they churn out because the few they come out with are not taken seriously. We have universities which have made no effort to transform their communities with their inventions. All these institutions should have been the ‘solution’ to our industrialization ‘problems’. On top of it, we have a society where local inventions are taken with a pinch of salt while foreign inventions are celebrated. We’d rather flood the market with Chinese made ‘yam pounder’ for example that encourage local alternatives.

The major lesson of the ongoing Iran/US war is that nations have to learn to be self-sufficient. Or prepare for a painful death by asphyxiation. If not self-sufficient in almost all areas, then in essential areas. The country cannot afford to keep sleepwalking into the future. It is oil today. It can be medicine or food tomorrow – we can’t even feed ourselves as we speak. Nigeria has to wake up and smell the coffee. To paraphrase Tony Elumelu, ‘Your future lies in your hands’.