Petrol prices across Nigeria may rise sharply in the coming days, with industry players warning that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) could approach ₦2,000 per litre if current global oil market trends persist.

Fuel marketers attribute the looming increase to the recent surge in international crude oil prices, which have crossed the $70-per-barrel mark for the first time in several months.

The price rally has been driven largely by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly fears of supply disruptions linked to escalating hostilities involving Iran, a key crude oil producer within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Brent crude, the global benchmark, has continued its upward trajectory, a development that typically translates into higher costs for refined petroleum products worldwide. Industry analysts note that sustained increases in crude prices inevitably affect both imported fuel and locally refined products, given the interconnected nature of global energy markets.

The situation has been further compounded by recent price adjustments by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which raised its ex-depot petrol price, prompting many filling stations nationwide to revise pump prices upward. In major cities such as Lagos, petrol is now selling within the ₦830 to ₦860 per litre range, with variations depending on location and supply logistics.

Independent marketers have expressed concern that if crude oil prices remain elevated, the landing cost of imported PMS could exceed ₦900 per litre, leaving retailers with little choice but to push pump prices higher. According to operators, areas far from refineries or fuel depots are likely to feel the impact more severely due to added transportation costs.

Market stakeholders also point to exchange rate pressures and rising operational expenses as additional factors squeezing marketers’ purchasing power. They warn that the combined effect of higher crude prices and forex volatility could make fuel procurement increasingly difficult.

“As an independent marketer, we don’t normally want the price of petroleum products to go up; any increase you see now will be because of this international manoeuvre and everything happening in the international community in terms of crude oil price.

“The crude surge will definitely affect our local market. The price of petroleum products will come down if the crude price goes down, that’s the common principle of the market,” National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike told PUNCH.

Beyond pricing concerns, marketers report a noticeable slowdown in fuel sales, as consumers respond to rising prices by cutting back on consumption. This trend contrasts sharply with the festive period late last year, when lower prices encouraged higher demand.

Meanwhile, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reiterated its capacity to meet domestic fuel demand, stating that it can supply volumes well above Nigeria’s estimated daily consumption. The refinery maintains that increased local refining capacity should help stabilise supply, reduce reliance on imports, and cushion the impact of global market shocks over time.

Despite these assurances, industry watchers caution that until global crude prices ease and supply conditions stabilise, Nigerians may continue to face upward pressure on fuel prices, with ₦1,000 per litre no longer viewed as a distant possibility but a potential near-term reality. (Nigerian Tribune)