The decision of Abba Yusuf, Kano State Governor, to defect to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) from the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) has heightened political tension in the ancient city, triggering a fierce power struggle with far-reaching implications for the influence of Rabiu Kwankwaso, former governor and NNPP leader.

Governor Yusuf, a long-time protégé of Kwankwaso and a product of the Kwankwasiyya political movement, came to power in 2023 largely on the back of the former governor’s political machinery.

However, recent developments suggest a gradual shift in the balance of power, as the governor consolidates authority and asserts growing independence from the structure that produced him.

Yusuf’s quiet moves toward APC power brokers

Perhaps, to facilitate his entrance and acceptance into the ruling party, the Kano governor, in recent months, has been hobnobbing with political actors in the APC and with figures seen as direct political rivals to Kwankwaso. One of such figures is Abdullahi Ganduje, former Kano State governor.

Ganduje was deputy to Kwankwaso during his tenure as governor of Kano State, but in recent years, the two political heavyweights have become bitter rivals in Kano politics.

Political analysts say Governor Yusuf defecting under Ganduje’s watch would amount to a major political victory for the former APC national chairman and a direct blow to Kwankwaso.

Building a power base outside Kwankwasiyya

Political watchers say the Kano governor’s recent appointments, policy decisions and political engagements point to a deliberate effort to build a personal power base distinct from the Kwankwasiyya movement.

While there has been no open confrontation between the two leaders, insiders say their relationship is not cordial.

Over the past months, sources say Governor Yusuf has reshuffled key positions within government and party structures, sidelining some figures known to be loyal to Kwankwaso while elevating others seen as loyal primarily to him. These changes, analysts say, reflect an attempt by Yusuf to tighten his grip on the state ahead of future political contests.

“What we have seen in recent months is that the Kano governor has taken steps to reassert his authority and free himself from Kwankwaso by gradually building his political structure across the state,” a source in the NNPP, who did not want his name in print, told BusinessDay.

“It is a move aimed at building his political identity, and it is certainly part of the things creating friction.”

APC’s strategy and Tinubu’s 2027 calculations

Olarewaju Adesanya, a political analyst, told BusinessDay that Kwankwaso’s refusal to defect to the ruling party may have necessitated the APC’s move to poach Governor Yusuf, given how crucial Kano is to President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid.

According to him, Tinubu has weighed his political chances in Kano and decided to deliver a political punch to Kwankwaso, as it appears the Kano governor has chosen to pitch his tent with Tinubu and the APC.

“So, seeing that Kwankwaso’s base needs to be depleted for them to succeed in the state in the 2027 general election, the game was successfully hatched in a swift move to wane Kwankwaso’s influence in Kano politics,” Adesanya said.

“The political optics in Kano are changing, and Governor Yusuf’s alignment with Ganduje is a strong pointer to that effect.”

Kwankwasiyya movement and its enduring grip

Kwankwaso, a former governor and two-time presidential candidate, remains the undisputed symbol of the Kwankwasiyya movement, which has dominated Kano politics for over a decade.

The movement’s red-cap symbolism, grassroots networks and disciplined structure were instrumental in Yusuf’s electoral victory. Any perceived weakening of Kwankwaso’s control therefore has broader implications for the movement’s future.

Observers note that the tension reflects a familiar pattern in Nigerian politics, where godfathers and political heirs often clash once power is secured. From Lagos to Rivers and beyond, governors who emerged through dominant political patrons have historically sought autonomy after assuming office.

Hammed Muritala, a political commentator, noted that while the defection of the Kano governor to the APC could create cracks and internal tensions within the NNPP and the Kwankwasiyya movement, it may not immediately wane Kwankwaso’s influence in Kano politics.

Muritala described Kwankwaso as a political enigma in the state, arguing that he has built not just a political structure but a loyal and formidable grassroots movement that transcends party lines and has survived similar political shifts in the past.

“While the governor’s defection may temporarily weaken internal cohesion within the NNPP, history suggests that Kwankwaso’s political base has repeatedly adapted, reorganised and, in many cases, emerged stronger.

“We saw what happened in the last general elections, where his candidate defeated the candidate of the sitting governor and ruling party at the centre,” he said.

Similarly, Emmanuel Taiwo, a politician, said Kwankwaso remains a household name in Kano politics because of his long-term investment in human capital in the state and its environs, stressing that this has made him very popular among the downtrodden and even the elite.

According to him, this explains how Kwankwaso returned as Kano governor in 2011 and later mobilised support for the current government.

Taiwo argued that support for Kwankwaso in Kano is organic and warned that the governor could be the one at the receiving end if he defects without Kwankwaso’s blessing or support.

“Kwankwaso is the leader of politics in Kano State and, to some extent, the North-West. I believe Yusuf won’t move without his blessing, and anyone Kwankwaso supports will win the next election because of his popularity,” he said.

National implications and 2027 stakes

For now, the stakes remain particularly high in Kano. Kwankwaso’s influence extends beyond the state, positioning him as a key opposition figure nationally.

Analysts say any erosion of his authority in Kano could weaken his bargaining power ahead of the 2027 general election.

Meanwhile, political watchers say Governor Yusuf’s moves may also be shaped by the national political climate, where defections and realignments have become common as politicians seek relevance within the ruling APC or emerging opposition coalitions.

Although the Kano governor has repeatedly affirmed loyalty to the NNPP, speculation about possible future realignments continues to swirl within political circles.

Why Gov Yusuf is dumping NNPP and Kwankwaso

Speaking on the necessity of Governor Yusuf’s defection to the ruling party, a source close to the Kano government told BusinessDay that the move was informed by the governor’s desperation to secure re-election in 2027 on what he considers a viable platform.

According to the source, the governor is apprehensive about the viability of the NNPP in the 2027 elections, due to divisions arising from unresolved leadership crises within the party.

The source also said the governor is worried about the massive following and rising profile of Jibrin Barau, deputy president of the Senate, in Kano politics.

“You must be aware that Barau is highly favoured by the leadership of the APC in Kano and at the national level for the 2027 governorship ticket, which he is likely to get on a platter.

“You may also know that Barau declared his interest in the Kano governorship a long time ago and has been working hard towards it, as he enjoys strong grassroots support.”

Speaking further, the source said:

“It is the fear of Barau that is driving Governor Yusuf to the APC because he has weighed his chances and knows he does not stand a chance with Barau running on the APC ticket.” (BusinessDay)