Nigeria’s imports of refined petroleum products from Malta have plunged by 60 percent in 2024, signalling a shift in the country’s downstream fuel supply dynamics as the Dangote refinery ramps up output.

Data from TradeMap show that Nigeria’s imports of Malta petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals dropped to approximately $818 million in 2024, down from over $2.1 billion in 2023.

Imports from Malta surge in 2023

Between 2017 and 2022, Nigeria recorded essentially no imports from Malta. But in 2023 that changed, as the nation imported $2.1 billion worth of petroleum products from the small Mediterranean island.

Industry commentary at the time linked the surge to alleged blending plants and unusual routing of fuel shipments. For context, Aliko Dangote, chairman of Dangote Industries, claimed that some personnel of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, oil traders and terminals had opened a blending facility in Malta.

The story sparked concerns about transparency, foreign exchange drain and supply-chain integrity.

The Dangote refinery factor

The 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Africa’s largest single-train refining complex, began producing diesel and aviation fuel earlier in 2024, with petrol output following.

Energy analysts attribute the decline in Malta-origin imports partly to the ramp-up of domestic refining capacity. For instance, a report shows that by the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, Nigeria’s petrol import bill dropped by 54 percent year-on-year, linked to increased local supply from Dangote.

Another shipping-industry note pointed out that Nigeria’s seaborne imports of clean petroleum products fell by about 39 per cent in the first seven months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, and the drop followed the start-up of Dangote’s refinery.

“As domestic refining builds up, importation of refined petroleum products becomes less urgent,” said Jide Pratt, country manager of TradeGrid.

Pratt, who also serves as the COO of AIONA, said it is unfortunate that the local refining of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in the immediate area is from the Dangote refinery, until the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited decides what happens to its moribund refineries.

“The greatest risk is that every time the DRL has to undergo maintenance due to RFCC shut in, we move from 70 percent capacity on PMS production to about 30 percent,” he said.

Dangote driving the reduction

The 60 percent drop in imports from Malta aligns perfectly with the operational increase of the 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) Dangote Refinery in Lagos.

The refinery, the world’s largest single-train facility, has scaled up its output of PMS since commencing production.

Previous reports in the latter half of 2025 indicated a general decline in Nigeria’s total seaborne petrol imports to an eight-year low, with Dangote’s domestic supply directly substituting the need for European imports.

The significant domestic output not only meets a growing portion of Nigeria’s internal demand but has also been reported to be on track to position the country as a net exporter of refined products, a status it has not held for decades.

Nigerian seaborne crude loadings hit six-month low

Nigeria’s seaborne crude oil loadings averaged 1.676 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, according to ship tracking data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea on November 21, the lowest since April when loadings were at 1.539 million bpd.

Loadings softened for the second consecutive month from September’s 1.756 million bpd and August’s 1.861 million bpd figures, CAS showed. The month with the highest loadings thus far in 2025 was June, when production reached 1.873 million bpd. (Business Day)