For decades, families in India have dedicated years and much of their finances toward a singular goal: getting their children a degree from a US university. Despite the hefty cost – often bore in staggering loans – the risk was palatable because the reward was likely a career launchpad that no other country in the world could offer.

But seismic policy shifts under President Donald Trump – from his recently announced $100,000 fee for H-1B work visas to his administration’s tightening scrutiny on international students and immigration crackdown – have many of those students and their families questioning that longstanding thinking.

Avi, an 18-year-old from India’s Bihar state, said he had a nearly full scholarship lined up to study anthropology at Trinity College in Connecticut, but his US visa application was denied because he failed to demonstrate “ties that will compel you to return to your home country,” a letter from the US Embassy in New Delhi said.

“I will not apply to the United States anymore. The process feels very scary now, humiliating even,” said Avi, who asked to go by a nickname over fears of jeopardizing his future prospects.

He’s one of several prospective students who described to CNN carefully made plans falling apart because of a rejected visa application, while others already studying in the US told CNN they worry about future job prospects and getting trapped under a mountain of debt.

Puja, a law student in the US, told CNN she had to borrow more than $90,000 to finance her American studies, despite getting a “generous scholarship” from her university. CNN is not identifying Puja by her real name over fears her visa will be revoked.

“When we think of America, we think of a lot more freedom…a lot more space to talk, to think and grow,” she said. “But I think with a lot of (these) policy decisions…it almost feels like you’re not wanted here.”

The recent policy changes’ combined effect is “a climate of fear and uncertainty,” says Sudhanshu Kaushik, founder of the non-profit North American Association of Indian Students.

“It goes against what we’ve been conditioned to for the past 20 to 30 years, that you work hard, you study…then there will be a reward, and you will be able to prosper and contribute to the American growth story, the American dream,” Kaushik told CNN.

Plummeting Indian student arrivals

Last year, India sent more students to the US than any other country, overtaking the number of Chinese students for the first time in 15 years with more than 330,000 Indian nationals enrolled at American universities.

But the latest government statistics signal a possible change in that trend. The number of Indian nationals who entered the US on student visas in July and August plummeted by roughly 45% compared to the numbers seen during the same months last year. The August numbers are still preliminary.

Experts say August numbers are typically a good indicator of fall enrollment, as most international students arrive that month ahead of classes and are limited in entering the US no earlier than 30 days before school begins.

CNN reached out to more than a dozen schools to inquire about enrollment numbers, but most said they couldn’t provide details at the time. Three schools – Columbia University, Boston University and the University of Southern California – reported international student enrollment was comparable to past years. Arizona State University reported a “slight dip” in international student enrollment, citing “changing federal guidance” and “challenges” in prospective students securing visa appointments ahead of the fall semester.

The decline in arrivals, the steepest seen since the pandemic, comes amid the Trump administration’s tightening of international student visas, travel bans, heightened visa vetting, threats to deport international students over pro-Palestinian speech and as the administration wages legal battles with several top-tiered universities over federal funding.

Imran Khan, founder of the educational consultancy HumStudy, told CNN he’s seen the US offer far fewer appointment slots for student visa applications ahead of this school year and that the number of applications rejected was higher than years past.

“Of the people we have sent (to apply to the US), there has been a 40-odd percent rejection rate,” Khan said. Most of the rejections came under the general reason of “not having ties to your home country,” meaning US officials weren’t convinced the applicant had sufficient reason to return home after completing their studies.

Khan’s firm is just one of thousands across India catering to the booming demand of young Indians who dream of studying overseas for better education and career opportunities.

He said students who are rejected for US visas are advised to apply to other countries or explore their options in India, rather than try to re-apply.

“The thing with the US is, once you get a refusal, the second time there is more scrutiny around the application. It will only rise and increase,” he said.

Avi, the student from Bihar, originally planned to apply to study in the US last year but decided to hold off – a decision he greatly regrets.

He said he’s now looking at universities in India and other countries but worries about limited options for quality programs in anthropology.

Declining interest

The uncertainty and increased scrutiny means Indian students are increasingly hedging their bets, according to Mrinalini Batra, founder of the International Educational Exchange consultancy in Delhi. She said fewer than half of the students she advised who wanted to go to the US maintained that goal.

“They’re keeping other countries open. They are keeping the Indian option open,” Batra said.

Bhoopendra Singh, a trainer at GMAT Insight in New Delhi, sees the same: “There are so many, many students this year who have actually dropped out of applying to schools in (the) US.”

He said he stopped promoting the US for studies because he also doesn’t want his students to incur the enormous expense often incurred. Considering the long-term commitment of studying abroad, Singh advises it’s better to wait until there “more clarity about these (Trump’s) policies.”

Puja, the law student from the US, said she doesn’t come from generational wealth and for her an American education came with a “big and heavy investment.”

“I came with the hope that even if I stay here, work for a year, I would be able to pay off my debt,” Puja said.

She now has a hard time imagining potential employers will be willing to pay the $100,000 fee for a H-1B foreign worker visa because, “I am not a STEM student,” referring to the highly coveted fields of science, technology, engineering and math.

More than 70% of H-1B visas issued in 2024 were granted to workers born in India, according to US Citizenship and Immigration Services. The majority of H-1B workers are in STEM fields, according to the US government, and international students with STEM degrees are eligible for longer work authorizations under an employment program known as Optional Practical Training (OPT).

But even some STEM students are changing plans to study in the US because of the Trump administration’s changes.

Hemaksh Swara, a math and computers major at an Indian university who is shopping for graduate programs, said he doesn’t think it is worth getting a master’s degree in the US because of the recent changes.

“I have decided to drop (the) US from my plans…I am looking into European countries, maybe even India,” Swara told CNN.

Gagneet Singh, 22, had already applied for a loan to get his MBA in the US, but pivoted to Canada after Trump’s H-1B announcement.

“Job security is very important for students. We are going there from India so the expectation is that we get a good job over there,” Singh said.

H-1B concerns loom large

Kim Dixit, CEO and co-founder of The Red Pen, a Mumbai-based education consultancy, said companies have also shown less interest in hiring international students and employees since the H-1B announcement.

“A lot of employers are also not understanding what is happening, but they’re just kind of pumping the brakes on hiring international employees, period,” said Dixit.

Khan, of the HumStudy consultancy, said employers often specify in job postings they are only interested in hiring those who already have legal status to work in the US. Even jobs open to other employment visas, like the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, were not being considered because employers “don’t want the burden of H-1B later,” he said.

Economists have argued H-1B visas, which grant the ability to work in the US for three years and can be extended for another three, allow American companies to maintain competitiveness and grow their business, creating more jobs in the US.

The Trump administration justified the new $100,000 fee as a necessary measure to curb what it described as “systemic abuse” of the H-1B program and to encourage the hiring of American workers.

But some experts have expressed concerns that the staggering H-1B fee could have a chilling effect long-term, deterring students who want to work under other employment visas, and impacting critical industries which depend on STEM graduates like tech, healthcare and energy.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna and Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen – the leaders of four of the biggest US tech companies – are all Indian nationals who started out on student visas, followed by H-1B visas.

“Indian students and alumni have had a profound influence on US institutions, the economy and the society since the 1960s,” said international education expert Rajika Bhandari, who runs the research and strategy firm Rajika Bhandari Advisors.

Bhandari grew up in India, but has lived in the US since studying her Ph.D. “The drop in Indian students will have a profound and negative impact on all of these sectors whose talent pipelines will be disrupted,” she said.

Last week, the US Chamber of Commerce sued the Trump administration to block the “plainly unlawful” H-1B visa fee, arguing it will force companies to choose between drastically increasing their labor costs and hiring fewer highly skilled workers, according to Reuters.

India’s National Association of Software and Service Companies, a non-governmental trade association and advocacy group, also warned last month that the new H-1B fee “can potentially have ripple effects on America’s innovation ecosystem and the wider job economy.”

Michael Lovenheim, a labor economist and professor at Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations, previously told CNN that international students “generate not only returns to themselves through higher wages, but they work in sectors that generate economic growth, they start businesses, they work in high-growth areas that generate more productivity and increase (Gross Domestic Product).”

An analysis by the Association of International Educators (NAFSA) and JB International estimated a potential 30–40 percent decline in new international student enrollment in US schools this year, which could “deprive local economies of $7 billion in spending and more than 60,000 jobs.”

However, several of the experts who spoke with CNN remained optimistic that the well-established, mutually beneficial relationship between the US and the Indian students it hosts will endure and overcome the current tensions.

“The US is still a good market. It is still the giant,” said Khan of HumStudy. “This is a bad time, but there is a lot of noise around this currently which will eventually subside.” (CNN)