As the race toward the 2027 general elections gathers momentum, former presidential candidate, Peter Obi, appears to be standing at a political crossroads.

The man who captured national attention and inspired a generation of young Nigerians in 2023 is again at the centre of Nigeria’s opposition politics, torn between loyalty to the Labour Party and the pull of new alliances.

Since the 2023 elections, Obi’s Labour Party (LP) has been dogged by internal crises. The party, once seen as the face of a new political awakening, is now split into competing camps. One loyal to the embattled national chairman Julius Abure, another to the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), and a third built around Obi’s passionate supporters, the “Obidient” Movement.

The crisis deepened after the party’s March 2024 national convention, which the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) described as non-compliant with its rules.

The lingering crisis within the LP ranks appears to have weakened the kind of momentum Obi gained on the platform during the 2023 election. It has thus put him at crossroads as to whether to still fly the party’s flag or look elsewhere, observers noted.

Meanwhile, Obi has been seen working closely with opposition figures under the platform of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which has become the nucleus of a new coalition.

The coalition, presented earlier this year as a “third force” against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), includes other heavyweight politicians such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, though the ADC itself faces its own internal and structural weaknesses.

But with the likes of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar positioning himself to clinch the ticket of the coalition ADC, there are concerns of what the chances will be for Obi should he choose to seek the presidential ticket of the party.

Recently, Atiku came out to clear the air over reports that he was ready to abandon his presidential ambition for a younger candidate in 2027, indicating that he was very much in the race.

While there are speculations that Obi may settle for a vice-presidential slot under the coalition ADC with Atiku, there are concerns that he may lose his Obidient Movement support base, who are only keen on having him run for president rather than for vice president.

Obi is also speculated to be hobnobbing with his former party, the PDP but with the deepening crisis in the party, analysts said his chances there appear dicey, especially as speculations increase on the potential return of former President Goodluck Jonathan to the race. Obi and Jonathan share the same political demography and this along with other developments, observers noted, has put Obi at a crossroads in terms of which platforms to align with in actualizing his ambition in 2027.

Last week, he reaffirmed his intention to contest the 2027 presidential election, saying he can change Nigeria’s trajectory within four years if elected.

Dr. Yunusa Tanko, the National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement and one of his spokespersons, insisted that despite the uncertainty, Obi remains firmly committed to the coalition’s broader ideals and still holds membership in the Labour Party.

“At the moment, His Excellency is a member of the Labour Party. He’s also a coalition member,” Tanko told Daily Trust in an interview.

“The coalition has not been made on a political party basis but on individual commitment, and that’s where he stands.”

Tanko revealed that Obi will announce his definitive political platform before the end of the year. “He’s going to make a decision on the political party at the end of November or December,” he said.

While critics have questioned the slow pace of decision-making, Tanko dismisses fears that Obi’s prolonged silence could weaken his base.

“The support for Mr. Obi has grown beyond anybody’s imagination,” he said confidently, adding that “what people are just waiting for is for him to take the platform he’s going towards. Once that is made, you will see the level of influence.”

Tanko maintained that Obi’s popularity remains nationwide. “As we speak now, the Obidient Movement is everywhere in the Federal Republic of Nigeria,” he said.

“Even in Borno and Yobe, there is trust in his leadership. If you do a fact-check, in every political discussion today, if the name of Peter Obi is not mentioned, that discussion is not solid.”

On the much-discussed relationship between Obi and Atiku, Tanko was quick to dismiss any suggestion of rivalry.

“His Excellency Peter Obi and the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar have a very good working relationship,” he said. “Peter Obi highly respects Atiku Abubakar. You could see anywhere they go; he gives him his mark of respect as an elder. We don’t see their relationship as a hindrance but as a strength against the opposition.”

Analyst: Obi is playing a waiting game

Meanwhile, political analyst, Jide Ojo, believes Obi’s indecision reflects a strategic waiting game rather than confusion.

“The way I see what’s playing out, not just Peter Obi, but all of them are playing the waiting game,” Ojo told Daily Trust.

He explained that the coalition’s future depends on several legal and political factors, noting that “there are still court cases against the takeover of the ADC, and they’re not too sure how the court will rule,” he said, adding that “what Obi and others are doing is watching to see if their alternate platform, the African Democratic Alliance (ADA) will be fully registered by INEC.”

“Maybe Obi and Atiku are waiting in the wings for the official registration of ADA. Once that happens, they’ll have a neutral platform without litigation issues,” he said.

However, Ojo also identified Obi’s personal dilemma; one that could shape his political destiny. “If there’s one politician that Peter Obi is afraid of, it’s Atiku,” Ojo noted, adding that “he doesn’t want to be in the same party primary where Atiku’s influence and financial muscle could tilt the process. He’s also wary of being seen as a perpetual running mate.”

The analyst said Obi’s loyal supporters would resist any arrangement that reduces him to a secondary role. “They don’t want him to be a running mate in 2027. They want him to be the candidate,” he said.

Beyond internal politics, Ojo believes Obi faces regional and structural hurdles. “Even if he reconciles with the Abure faction in the Labour Party, it’s not going to be easy,” he said. “There’s a lot of damage done, and no mutual trust between Obi’s camp and Abure’s. Unfortunately, it has not been successful in uniting the party.”

He added that the 2027 election would be Obi’s “brightest window.” “He’s about 62 or 63 now,” Ojo said. “If he doesn’t win in 2027 and power shifts back to the North in 2031, he may have to wait for another 12 years. That’s why this coming election is so crucial for him.”

Analysts believe that unless he can reconcile his movement with a stable party base and align with other key opposition figures, the 2027 dream may remain elusive. Yet, Obi’s loyalists insist he is still the most credible face of Nigeria’s opposition.

As Tanko put it, “What he’s looking for is to ensure that everybody comes together to work as a team to rescue Nigeria.” (Daily Trust)