The future sustainability of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as a virile opposition party is shrouded in dark foreboding. Little hope is evident, even as stakeholders struggle to pull it back from the brink of collapse.

Since the party plunged into uncharted waters immediately it lost out of power in 2015, its internal crisis has remained unresolved, forcing notable figures to opt for alternative platforms. The recent defection of Bayelsa and Enugu state governors, Douyle Diri and Peter Mbah respectively, further added more to its woes, leaving the people to wonder if the party has not come its terminal end. Their defection, following earlier defections in Delta and Akwa Ibom is seen by many as a major blow to the party, as each loss will affect funding, mobilization, and the national visibility as a strong opposition. Both Bayelsa and Enugu were historically core PDP states. As many analysts have noted, losing the two sitting governors in these regions dramatically shrinks the party’s political map and influence, just as the ceaseless defections signal a lack of confidence among the party members.

As the PDP is struggling to manage its internal crisis amid endless postponement of its national convention, the defection has continued to fuel the narrative that the APC Is consolidating power and moving Nigeria toward a one-party state.

The General Secretary of the Ijaw Elders Forum (IEF), Efiye Bribena, who spoke with Sunday Sun on Diri’s defection in a telephone interview, blamed the internal leadership tussle on the APC’s deliberate policy of muzzling the opposition. He said: “There is active involvement of APC in the attempt to destroy the opposition parties, including the new ones they are trying to form.

“As things are, PDP will find it difficult to get legitimacy to field candidates in the 2027 general elections because there is no recognized national leadership. The way PDP is fractured now, it cannot feature candidates for political offices in 2027. How will they field candidates when the national chairman is holding a congress and the National Secretary is also holding his own congress? Who will present candidates to the INEC? I don’t think we know the major opposition party that will contest 2027 election. APC has done a good job in destroying all the legacy parties.”

“Otherwise, there is no reason for Diri to dump the PDP. I suspect that it was the deal he struck with Heineken Lokpobiri and Wike. It could also be the fear of the EFCC because in another two years, the immunity he enjoys will be gone. If his reason is to secure senatorial election, he could have as well actualised his Senatorial ambition in PDP because he is the leader of the party and the person that is there now is like a placeholder for him. With this defection, Diri’s popularity will nosedive seriously because the people are not in support of it.

As the party continues to lament the loss of Bayela and Enugu States, the excitement surrounding the party’s convention slated for next month suffered yet another setback on Thursday following the affirmation of the subsisting order of the Federal High Court that status quo must be maintained. Justice James Omotosho, reaffirming his earlier order, insisted that no party must take any step that may jeopardize or render the decision of his court nugatory. He warned that he would be forced to make consequential orders against any party that resorts to self-help.

The judge spoke following the complaint by one of the lawyers to the PDP, Chris Uche SAN, that his client is being held back by the status quo maintenance order and applied for speedy hearing of the suit.

At Thursday’s proceeding, the judge said that his court would do everything possible to deliver judgment before the end of October. The judge fixed Monday, October 20 for definite hearing of the originating summons in respect of the suit instituted against the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and eight others by three aggrieved members of the party. The plaintiffs who instituted the case are Hon Austin Nwachukwu (Imo PDP chairman), Hon Amah Abraham Nnanna (Abia PDP chairman) and Turnah Alabh George (PDP Secretary, South-South).

However, the PDP leadership has insisted that its national convention scheduled for November 15 and 16 will hold. The Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the party, Ibrahim Abdullahi, told Sunday Sun that they were bothered neither by court cases nor by the exit of its governors.

Abdullahi said: “We are not perturbed by the on-going litigation. It is only the expression of the fundamental rights of some members, who are aggrieved.”

He expressed confidence that ultimately the suit will not have any negative effect on the national convention as scheduled.

“The interesting thing is that they are the ones leaving. As a Muslim, I will tell you that when the leader of prayer leaves, the next person behind him will just take over. So you don’t actually carry the crowd with him.

“Even in the case of Bayelsa, you saw some dissenting members of the National Assembly, led by Seriake Dickson, saying that they cannot see any compelling reasons as to why the governor just decided to go.

“If we will go to Ibadan next month with not a single governor, but with a committed party and come out with a successful convention, we would have succeeded. We will be fine.

“And this has been put to test further by Peter Obi in 2023, who ran also from a strange political party, and pulled almost 7million, same number with the PDP that has been there for over 27 years, with a super presidential candidate in former Vice President in Atiku Abubakar.

“So, give and take, it is not about the number of governors you have. It is more about the resolve of the citizenry and the promotion of a candidate that is formidable.”

Checks revealed that the PDP leadership had anticipated the exit of the Enugu State governor, who until his defection from opposition party was secretary of the National Convention Organising Committee (NCOC).

Consequently, immediately Mbah joined the APC, the party appointed Senator Ben Obi, a former national secretary, to take his place as Secretary of the NCOC.

Harvest of losses

Apart from defection of governors, the party has also lost significant number of its members in the legislature. Based on the final results of the 2023 National Assembly elections, which determined the membership of the 10th Assembly at its inception, the PDP had 37 seats out of 109 members in the Senate, and 118 of the 360 in the House of Representatives, making it the largest opposition party in both chambers.

Following the latest trend, reflecting significant defections up to October, the PDP seats have been substantially reduced, particularly in the Senate. The current number of its member in the Senate is estimated to be between 25 and 28 and House of Representatives below 100.

On the other hand, APC is widely reported to control around 74 seats in the Senate, which is a major increase from its initial 59 seats.

Before the latest wind of defections, prominent key figures like former vice President Atiku Abubakar had earlier ditched the PDP to form the opposition coalition, which recently adopted the Africa Democratic Congress (ADC) as a platform for the 2027 elections. Atiku’s defection alongside his huge following, especially in the North, has left the party in a precious situation.

In the same manner, the loss of sitting governors has dramatically shrunk the party’s territory and influence, reducing the number of controlled states to just eight governors, compared to the APC’s 24.

The defection, many have noted, signals a lack of faith in the party’s national leadership and future direction. When such defection occurs, concerned governors often take key political structures, state legislators, and local government chairmen with them, crippling the party’s ability to operate effectively in those states. These back-to-back high-profile defections create an atmosphere of crisis and despair, leading people to seriously question if the PDP can recover and remain a viable opposition.

The dismal outing recorded in most of the recently held off cycle elections further revealed the vulnerability of the party. In September 2024, the PDP, which hitherto held the governorship in Edo, lost the state to the All Progressives Congress (APC). Its candidate, Asue Ighodalo, was defeated by the APC’s Senator Monday Okpebholo. This was a particularly painful loss because the sitting governor, Godwin Obaseki, a PDP member, had been in office for eight years, though he defected from the APC to the PDP in 2020 to win his second term.

Losing a sitting governor’s seat to the main opposition party is a massive setback that further fuelled internal crises and the narrative of the party’s decline. The split and infighting among key party figures like Obaseki, his Deputy, and other leaders directly cost the party the election.

Similarly, in Imo State where Hope Uzodimma, won re-election, the PDP failed to recapture the state it lost after a 2020 Supreme Court ruling. In Kogi, Dino Melaye, came in a distant third, highlighting the party’s weak organisational structure in the state. The failure of the party to effectively challenge the ruling APC in these states demonstrates a lack of national momentum or a successful strategy to win against a federal-backed party.

These losses in high-stake, off-cycle elections are largely seen as a barometer for the party’s health and have directly contributed to the current environment of defections and internal struggles account for the elusive peace among the stakeholders.

As the political momentum favours the ruling party APC, it adds more woos to the PDP.

Options on the table

This cumulative electoral failure is the ultimate cause of the political woes and internal strife currently plaguing the party. In the renewed search for peace, however, stakeholders have put several options on the table. One of these is the option of offering former Goodluck Jonathan an automatic ticket to run for presidency to complete his constitutional eight-year tenure. Prominent figures like Professor Jerry Gana, Governor Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State, have been vehemently pushing for Jonathan candidacy. Though Jonathan has not officially reacted, the proposal has continued to resonate across the country.

Efiye, while reacting to the swirling rumour of Jonathan’s ambition, declared outright that the former President does not have the people’s power to win election.

His words: “If Jonathan wants to run, Diri’s defection will have little or no effect because his defection does not have any substance at all.

“But I don’t think Jonathan will join the race. The reason being that Jonathan does not have the people’s power to win an election. With the kind of politics Tinubu is playing, you can only beat APC with people’s power. Nobody can beat Tinubu with criminality and rigging. Atiku cannot beat Tinubu with rigging. It is only Peter Obi who has the people’s power to wrestle power from Tinubu. And that is why he remains their major threat. Jonathan might be popular among the elite, he does not have the people’s power.

“I don’t think Jonathan will accept to run for the presidency. If he does, Tinubu will rubbish him. In fact, Tinubu will be happy to have Jonathan come out to run because he knows that he is not a threat. He will only divide Peter Obi’s votes in the South South. Jonathan’s credibility is so high; getting involved in this politics will not help him because he cannot win.

“To win fairly, he needs people’s power and he does not have it. If you look at the trajectory of his rise to power, Jonathan did not fight for any elective position. When he was nominated for deputy governor, they just carried him and put him there.

“When he became acting governor, it was other people that fought to make it happen. He didn’t fight for it. When he became acting president, he didn’t fight for it. Other people fought for it and made him President. To be elected as President, it was other people too that rallied round him. So, he is not cut out for this kind of contest at all.”

Impeachment threat

Speculation is rife that the PDP might be considering impeachment of the defecting governors. However, Enugu State Government has dismissed the threat as baseless and empty.

Reacting to the speculation, Prince Joshua Ejeh, Special Assistant to the Governor on Research and Publication, said the defection was both constitutional and reflective of the will of the people of Enugu State.

“This is a constitutional issue and it is all about freedom of association. The 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, as amended, guarantees people’s freedoms and rights of association and assembly. So, people have the right, when they feel their interest is no longer being served by a political group, to leave that group,” Ejeh said.

He explained that Governor Mbah’s defection to the APC was not an individual decision but a mass movement driven by the people’s loss of confidence in the PDP.

“The movement from PDP to APC was the best thing for Ndi Enugu to do because it is the people of Enugu that left PDP for APC. They urged the governor to lead them out because the PDP disappointed them. Enugu people have been faithful and loyal to the PDP, but the party betrayed them and even betrayed Ndigbo,” he stated.

Ejeh argued that the governor only heeded the people’s call for change, adding that the mass defection was a reflection of popular sentiment.

“You don’t remove someone who has already left you—it is not done anywhere. The entire people of Enugu left PDP for APC. It was like a family movement. There was jubilation everywhere when the governor made the announcement.”

He also cited several court judgments supporting the governor’s move.

“Of course, we have many court judgments up to the Supreme Court that say when there are irreconcilable divisions in a party, members have the right to forge ahead with their political future,” he said.

According to inside sources, most members of the Enugu State House of Assembly have already joined the governor in his defection to the APC, giving him firm control of the legislature. (Sunday Sun)