Study visa issuances for Nigerian students jumped by 149 percent compared with the same period in 2024, with a grant rate of 96 percent, making the country to emerge as one of the strongest-performing markets for the United Kingdom’s (UK) higher education market according to second quarter data of 2025 from Apply Board.

The sharp rebound in study visa approvals signifies the resilience of demand for international education, even against a backdrop of economic strain and tougher immigration controls.

The turnaround comes less than a year after the UK government tightened rules on international students bringing family members, a policy that had disproportionately affected Nigerian applicants.

Broader trends across the UK market

Overall, nearly 63,000 main applicants applied for UK study visas in Q2 2025, up 16 percent on the previous year. More than 56,000 visas were issued, representing a 24 percent increase, while refusal rates remained at 9 percent for the third consecutive quarter.

This pattern of steady demand suggests a stabilisation following the volatility of 2023.

However, institutions face growing uncertainty as the government’s 2025 immigration White Paper proposes raising Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) thresholds. Universities may soon be required to keep refusal rates below 5 percent while also ensuring higher enrolment and completion levels or risk sanctions.

India remains the UK’s largest source of international students, with more than 15,000 visas granted in Q2 2025, which is a 44 percent year-on-year rise and a 96 percent grant rate. This marks a strong recovery after last year’s slowdown across major English-speaking destinations.

Emerging opportunities

Smaller markets are also offering reliable pathways for universities seeking to diversify amid tighter oversight. In Europe, Norway, Greece, Cyprus, Italy, and Switzerland all posted grant rates of 99 percent or above in the first half of 2025.

Outlook

While Nigeria’s resurgence highlights the potential for recovery even under challenging conditions, the wider data suggest that UK institutions will need to balance compliance with maintaining a diverse student body.

With refusal thresholds tightening and enrolment completion rates set to be closely monitored from 2026 onwards, universities may face difficult decisions about which markets to prioritise. (BusinessDay)