As politics and politicking continue in top gear ahead of the 2027 general elections, legal conundrums are one of the issues dominating the trends.

Just like the build-up to the 2023 general elections, the possibility of former President Goodluck Jonathan returning on the ballot is back alive and active.

As a former president, Jonathan only sought to be elected to the number one political office in the country in 2011. He was on the ballot for the first time and won. But before then, Goodluck Jonathan was elected as running-mate to former late President Umaru Musa Yar’adua in 2007.

After Yar’adua’s sudden death in May 2010, then Vice President Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in as a President and spent the remainder of the four-year term before seeking to be elected for a full four years.

Remember, Jonathan did not voluntarily leave the Aso Rock in 2015; he was defeated at the polls. That is, Jonathan sought re-election but was ousted by Nigerians in favour of the popular ‘change mantra’ championed by the late Muhammadu Buhari.

Like Alamieyesiegha, like Yar’adua: Jonathan’s rise to power

Jonathan’s rapid and highly improbable rise to power did not begin in 2007.

Before rising to become the first Nigerian President to concede defeat in 2015, his rise to power both at the state and federal government, owed a lot to luck.

Jonathan served as deputy to Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, who was elected in 1999 as the first democratically elected governor of Bayelsa State. However, Alamieyeseigha paved the way for Jonathan to be promoted to governor in 2005. Yes, he was impeached on corruption charges.

From being a low-key governor for two years, Jonathan became Vice President to another low-key boss and President, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2007.

Like Alamieyeseigha, the ‘Goodluck’ Vice President who never contested for political office rose to power when his principal died in 2010.

Jonathan as the ‘2027 bride’

of the 2027 presidential elections, Jonathan’s name is one of the top candidates considered by political stakeholders as strong enough to go head-to-head with the incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Though still considered a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Goodluck Jonathan has kept a low profile and miles away from the party activities, shortly after his defeat to Buhari in 2015.

With former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who ran on the platform of the PDP in 2019 and 2023, out of the party, Tribune Online reports that the Bauchi State governor and Chairman of the PDP governors’ forum, Mohammed Abdulkadir Bala, recently revealed that the party is considering bringing Jonathan back, actively, into the party as a possible candidate to fly its flag in 2027.

While the idea of PDP dragging Jonathan from ‘political retirement’ into the race sounds realistic, the party is not alone.

Tribune Online also reported that a powerful group within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) — a coalition political party — is wooing ex-President Jonathan for the 2027 presidential race.

The source confirmed that key figures in the ADC were comfortable with having Jonathan as their presidential candidate and had, in fact, reached out to him.

Five years in power: Much ado about Jonathan’s possible return

With the possibility of Jonathan’s return dominating national headlines for weeks, critics, including serving political officials, have advised the PDP against the idea of Jonathan, citing a constitutional stance that may deny the party a presidential candidate in 2027.

Festus Keyamo, minister of aviation and aerospace development, in a report by Tribune Online, cautioned the PDP against the idea of fielding Jonathan against his principal in 2027.

According to Keyamo, the party risks not having a candidate at all because Jonathan’s candidacy could pose a constitutional threat under section 137(3) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), which could disqualify anyone who has been sworn in twice as president from contesting again.

“If he is fielded, the party runs the RISK of NOT HAVING A CANDIDATE AT ALL,” Keyamo wrote, warning that any challenge would end up before the Supreme Court.

“The constitutional amendment was made AFTER the court judgment which cleared him (Jonathan) to run in 2015, so nothing is decided yet on that new amendment, hence I use the word ‘RISK’ advisedly. All the arguments as to whether the section can be interpreted to affect him will not be decided on Social Media, but at the Supreme Court.”

Before Keyamo, a legal luminary and human rights lawyer, Femi Falana, (SAN), had in a 2022 report published by Tribune Online, posited that Jonathan is constitutionally-barred from seeking re-election.

Falana, in his conviction rooted in jurisprudence and the constitution, argued that the Supreme Court had ruled that the amendment barring a situation like that of Jonathan can apply in retrospect.

He alluded to the apex court’s pronouncement on a similar amendment to draw his conclusion.

The provision reads, “A person who was sworn in to complete the term for which another person was elected as president shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term.”

The amendment, among others, was signed into law by then President Muhammadu Buhari following his emergence in 2015. Jonathan, being the only living ex-president to have enjoyed the succession-by-default arrangement, is widely perceived as the target of the amendment,

However, another Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), Mike Ozekhome, had also joined Jonathan’s eligibility debate, disagreeing with Falana.

According to Ozekhome, Jonathan “is pre-eminently constitutionally, morally and legally qualified to contest the 2023 presidential election.”

In his argument, Ozekhome said the Court of Appeal ruling of 2015 had settled the issue raised by Falana.

He said: “In a lead judgement delivered by Justice Abubakar Yahaya, the full panel of the Court of Appeal unanimously held that President Jonathan had only spent one term in office as president, going by the provisions of the 1999 Constitution.

“Mr. Njoku had contended that Jonathan had already sworn to the oath of office and allegiance twice and therefore, should be disqualified from contesting the 2015 election, as any victory he secured would amount to being sworn in thrice.

“However, the court ruled that the oath that Jonathan took in 2010 was merely to complete the unexpired tenure of late Yar’adua; adding that by virtue of Section 135 (2)(b) of the 1999 Constitution, Jonathan only took his first oath in May, 2011. The Court of Appeal further held that disqualification is through election, not oath taking.”

Concluding his argument, Ozekhome noted that former president Jonathan being sworn to complete Yar’adua’s tenure is by provision of the constitution as a Vice President and not by election, adding that “election involves conducting primaries by party, nomination, election and announcement of results. All these processes were not done.”

Jonathan puzzle: What does the constitution say?

Both Keyamo and Falana, in their arguments, had cited section 137 (3) of the 1999 constitution as amended by the Fourth Alteration Act No. 16, 2017, which states: “A person who was sworn in as President to complete the term for which another person was elected shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term.”

While this law prohibits a person who completes another person’s tenure from seeking election more than a single term, including in acting capacity, the fact that it’s not been tested in court contributes to the legal conundrum on whether the provision can take a retroactive effect, especially for Jonathan.

Another constitutional provision that may be contested in this debate is Section 135 of the 1999 constitution (as amended) which stipulates a four-year term in office for the President and when they must leave.

But in Ozekhome’s argument, section 135 (2) b provided guidance on the eligibility of Jonathan to contest despite completing Yar’adua’s remaining one year in office.

“Subject to the provisions of subsection (1) of this section, the President shall vacate his office at the expiration of a period of four years commencing from the date – (a) in the case of a person first elected as President under this Constitution, he took the oath of allegiance and the oath of office; and (b) in any other case, the person last elected to that office under this Constitution took the Oath of Allegiance and the oath of office or would, but for his death, have taken such Oaths” — Section 135 (2) b of the Nigerian Constitution (1999 as amended)

Relying on this provision, Ozekhome said Jonathan was first elected on merit in 2011 and that was the only complete four-year term in office that he used.

Another expert weighs in

Another legal practitioner, Kola Oloyede, while sharing his perspectives, backed Keyamo’s assertion that Jonathan’s return to the race could cause a constitutional crisis, stating that there “are very many shades of plausible arguments!”

According to him, Section 136 (1) and (2) of the 1999 CRFN states that a President and Vice President are elected on a joint ticket and bound on the same tenure of office.

“Now the interesting question is if President Yar’adua has spent any out of the whole four years … would there have been any more years for president Jonathan, No?” he said.

Continuing, he added if a Vice President is qualified to vie for this position after expiration of four years or eight years as the case may be, then it negates the idea of a joint ticket.

“The alternative view is that if a vice president is qualified to vie for the post of presidency thereafter, that negates the idea of a joint ticket and being bound on the same term of tenure of office and Mr. Atiku Abubakar will not have a basis of contesting again!

“Further alternative argument is: was President Jonathan elected when he took the last one year to replace Late Yar’adua? No! Rather, he was only fulfilling constitutional provisions in the same way that a Senate President would have occupied the presidency if occasion arises!”

He, however, concluded that should former President Jonathan choose to vie for the office again in 2027, it would no doubt “create a constitutional crisis, and only full sitting of the Supreme Court of Nigeria can decide.” (Nigerian Tribune)