Ahead of the 2027 general elections, succession politics and the accompanying tensions have already gripped some states where the incumbent governors are in their final terms. In politics, a successful succession plan is a hallmark of a good leader, and for the concerned governors, it’s a make-or-or mar issue that will determine their legacy and the future of their political parties in their respective states.

Traditionally, the issue of succession has always been a very hard nut to crack in Nigeria, especially in those states with a history of fierce political rivalries. Most times, the tensions arise from competing interests among political godfathers, prominent figures and ethnic or religious groups. For a successful plan, the issue is not just about picking a person; it’s about managing a delicate balance among competing interests, historical grievances and personal ambitions.

Currently, some of the states experiencing succession tension, according to Sunday Sun findings, are Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Bauchi, Gombe, Nasarawa, Kwara and Borno.

Lagos

In Lagos State, where the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has just managed to come out of the recent crisis that followed the selection of candidates for the just concluded local government elections, internal power struggles has intensified significantly. With Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu nearing the end of his second term, the stakeholders are currently in a state of uncertainty, as the contest for influence among the state gladiators, godfathers, prominent personalities and political blocs within the party has created a highly charged atmosphere. While the graveyard peace reigns in the party, the question of who will succeed Sanwolu is a major point of discussion and tension.

Zulum

Over the years, Lagos politics has been dominated by the influence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who had played a critical role in anointing successive governors. He, no doubt, influenced the emergence of Babatunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode and Babajide Sanwo-Olu. However, the current uncertainty stems from a growing perception that he (Tinubu) may be grooming his son, Seyi Tinubu, to become the next governor. This speculation has been fuelled by a series of public endorsements for Seyi’s candidacy from various groups.

The possibility of Seyi Tinubu’s candidacy is a major source of tension because he has not held a political office before, and many believe it would disrupt the established power-sharing arrangements within the Lagos APC.

The potential entry of Seyi Tinubu into the race is already a source of concern to many stakeholders. A source within the party hierarchy, who spoke with Sunday Sun on condition of anonymity, said Seyi’s rumoured ambition would upset the apple cart. “There are lots of speculations going on out there. Some of them are borne out of imagination. However, we are not unmindful of the challenges we have ahead of us. As we all know, Lagos State is very critical to the re-election bid of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. So, we are approaching the succession issue with caution. While I cannot dismiss Seyi’s ambition with a wave of hand, everybody is watching Asiwaju’s body language. I know he will not want to upset the apple cart at this delicate time. Above all, APC is a party that thrives on discipline and loyalty. Based on this standard, I can assure you that everything will be sorted out without much acrimony. Let’s wait, when we get there, we will cross the Rubicon,” the source declared.

Apart from Seyi, there is also a potential power struggle among the various factions supporting other prominent individuals like Dr Kadiri Obafemi Hamzat, the current deputy governor, who was initially seen by many as Sanwo-Olu’s natural successor, and who has a strong political track record, Hon. Mudashiru Obasa, the long-serving Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, who is a powerful figure with significant grassroots, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, the Chief of Staff to the President and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, who is a highly influential figure in both Lagos and national politics.

The number of contestants is swelling by the day. On Thursday, former Governor Akinwumi Ambode announced his intension to take another shot at the governorship in 2027, while also declaring support for the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Ambode made his position known in Badagry during a sensitization programme on Permanent Voter Card (PVC) registration. Represented by the Director-general of the Tinubu-Ambo Support Group, Dr Seyi Bamigbade, the former governor said he was offering himself to serve Lagos once again with a renewed vision to build on past gains and respond to present challenges. “We believe both President Tinubu and Ambode represent continuity, progress and people-focused governance,” he stated.

The issue of zoning and political rotation is equally at play. There are calls for a governor from a specific senatorial district or for the power to shift to an indigenous Lagosian. All these are a reflection of the intricate and high-stakes political manoeuvring taking place ahead of the 2027 election.

Ogun

Ogun is another state where the tenure of the incumbent Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun, will end in 2027. For him, extra care needs to be taken to avoid the immediate past experience under former governor Ibikunle Amosun who unilaterally anointed Hon AbdulKabir Adekunle Akinlade as his preferred candidate for the 2019 governorship election, leading to the emergence of a rival fashion within the APC. At the height of the ensuing crisis, Akinlade had to leave the APC to join the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) where he ran for the governorship race and lost to Prince Abiodun. Though Governor Abiodun has not indicated interest in any particular individual eyeing the governorship seat, tension is gradually building up within the APC ahead of the upcoming 2027 gubernatorial election. One of the loyal supporters of a prominent contender told Sunday Sun that underground plots by some individuals allegedly close to the Secretary to the State Government SSG, Tokunbo Talabi, were already scheming to adopt indirect primary to tilt the result in favour of a particular candidate has been uncovered. According to him, the individuals involved have started mobilising party members to support indirect primary.

“These desperate cronies calling themselves politicians have gone to the extent of involving themselves in an oath-taking. These individuals who are largely from Ijebu North are currently taking ward chair, Secretary, women leader, youth leader and other Exco members through the process of oath taking. This is pure politics of immorality, demonic ritual and dare devil high-handedness. The leaders who are engaging in this oath-taking don’t wish the party well,” he fumed.

Meanwhile the Ogun APC has denied the allegations of oath-taking. It described the allegation against its leadership, as not only wild and unsubstantiated, but also malicious, unfounded and libellous.

A statement signed by the Director of Publicity of the party, Nuberu Olufemi, on Friday, in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, said that no leader of Ogun APC engaged in any ritual oath-taking activity, declaring that: “The publication is entirely false, baseless, and politically motivated.”

“The APC categorically denies the existence of any ritual oath-taking event involving its members or leaders. The claims are not only fabricated, but also designed to incite public disaffection, spread fear, and damage the reputation of the party and its officials. The event described in the publication is a complete fiction, and the party dissociates itself entirely from such irresponsible reporting.

“As a law-abiding and responsible political organisation, the APC operates strictly within the framework of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the Electoral Act, and its own constitution.

While oath-taking is a recognised constitutional practice for affirming loyalty and service to the nation, it is strictly regulated by the Oaths Act, which outlines the qualifications of authorised persons to administer oaths and the purposes for which they may be administered.

The APC condemns any action that contravenes these legal and ethical standards,” the statement reads partly

The brewing tension in the state partly borders on the long-standing issue of political equity for the Ogun West Senatorial District. The perceived marginalisation of the region highlights the historical political imbalance in the state. Since its creation in 1976, no elected governor has come from the Ogun West Senatorial District, comprising the Yewa and Awori people. The Yewa and Awori are two major sub-ethnic groups within the Yoruba ethnic group in Ogun West senatorial district. However, the governorship has rotated between Ogun Central and Ogun East, peopled by the Egba and Ijebu respectively. This has fuelled a strong and enduring sentiment of political marginalization, leading to a renewed push for a governor from Ogun West in the 2027 election.

The ambition of Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, is at the centre of the renewed agitation for a change of status quo. A notable figure from the Yewa/Awori axis, who spoke with Sunday Sun in confidence, said Adeola’s candidacy is seen by many in his district as the vehicle to finally achieve their long-held dream of producing a governor. His supporters frame his ambition as a matter of politics equity and political justice, aiming to correct the historical imbalance. They believe that his experience as a long serving lawmaker and financial acumen would be beneficial for Ogun state.

The Ogun West perceived feeling of alienation is what is currently raising political tension in the state. Prominent stakeholders from the region, including traditional rulers, community groups, and political leaders, argue that the agitation for power shift is not just about personal ambition but about correcting a historical imbalance and giving the Yewa/Awori people a sense of belonging and inclusion in the state’s leadership.

One of the leading figures in Senators District, who did not want his name mentioned, expressed concern over the perceived silence of Governor Abiodun on their agitation. “After decades of being shut out of the governorship, it is now the turn of the Yewa/Awori people to lead the state, based on principles of fairness and rotational power-sharing. Ogun West is the proverbial fleece that lays the golden eggs. It is an irony that the region that is the economic backbone of Ogun State where the major industries are located has been shut out of power for 47 years. While giving Governor Abiodun the benefit of doubt, his perceived silence over the sustained agitation for power shift is making many of us uncomfortable. It is our hope that the APC stakeholders will see reason to redress the prolonged injustice we have suffered. Adeola’s gubernatorial ambition is inextricably linked to the collective struggle of our people to achieve political fairness and equal representation within Ogun state,” he posited.

Many people believe that Yayi would leverage his closeness with President Tinubu to push for his candidacy.

Amidst the growing tension and unrestrained political intrigues, the Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, a former Minister of Steel and Immediate past Nigerian High Commission to the United Kingdom, Ambassador Sarafadeen Ishola and Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka are among notable figures also believed to be warming up for the governorship contest.

The opposition PDP is not left out of the race. However, the party’s internal politics in Ogun State is a complex one. Though no official declaration of intent has been made by any candidate, notable figures who are expected to be in the running for the governorship include Oladipupo Olatunde Adebutu, the party’s candidate in the 2023 election, Segun Sowunmi who has been a vocal critic of the APC-led government in the state and Jimi Lawal, a veteran politician who also contested the PDP governorship ticket in 2023. The PDP will have to consider how it addresses this issue zoning arrangement in its choice of a candidate. While none of the top three contenders are from Ogun West, the party’s strategy on this matter could determine its appeal to voters.

Kwara

The succession plan for the 2027 gubernatorial election is also a source of tension within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kwara State. This is primarily because Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq is serving his second and final term, which will end in 2027, creating a leadership vacuum and opening up a contest for the governor’s office. Ahead of the next cycle of election, several key figures from both the ruling APC and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are positioning themselves for the contest. Those angling for the ticket of the A’C include Senator Sadiq Umar, a two-term Senator representing Kwara North, Speaker Salihu Danladi, also a prominent figure from Kwara North, Senator Saliu Mustapha, representing Kwara Central with a cult-like grassroots following and Ambassador Yahaya Seriki, among others. Seriki is believed to be a loyalist of Governor AbdulRazaq. He is being rumoured to be a “Plan B” candidate for the governor should the Kwara North zoning plan fail. His rumoured connections to powerful figures in Abuja are also considered a factor in his potential candidacy.

The PDP, led by former Senate President Bukola Saraki, is also a major force in the state and is steadily regrouping to reclaim power. Saraki, the former Senate President remains the undisputed leader of the PDP in Kwara. Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi, the PDP’s candidate in the 2023 governorship election, and Aliyu Ahman-Pategi, a former member of the House of Representatives are the leading figures who are likely to join the race. Abdullahi has a strong political base, especially in his Kwara North senatorial district, and will be looking to capitalise on any rift within the APC. Ahman-Pategi is also another notable figure from Kwara North who is likely to be a part of the PDP’s succession conversation.

However, there is no clear indication of a single anointed candidate, which fuels uncertainty and a scramble for position among potential aspirants.

Gombe

Governor Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe State, like any second-term governor in Nigeria, is facing the complex challenge of managing his succession. The uncertainty lies in who Governor Yahaya might choose to support. While he has not publicly declared his preferred candidate, his actions, appointments, and relationships with various political figures are being closely watched for clues.

Within the APC, there are prominent figures with gubernatorial ambitions, and their struggle for the party’s ticket is a primary source of internal tension. This includes members of his cabinet, his political allies, and other party heavyweights who believe they are best suited to lead the state.

The oppositeion, particularly the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is also active, with candidates like Mohammed Jibrin Barde, who contested against Yahaya in the 2023 election, positioning themselves for another run. The opposition is likely to try and capitalize on any internal rifts within the APC.

Governor Yahaya will need to manage the competing interests of various political blocs, including traditional rulers, religious leaders, and different senatorial districts, to prevent a major fallout within the party.

Oyo

Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, while not facing a succession crisis in the traditional sense of a breakdown of government, is at the centre of a tense and complex political succession as his second approaches its end in 2027. The dispute is primarily within his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and revolves around who will succeed him.

Governor Makinde has not yet publicly endorsed a candidate to succeed him. His silence, while perhaps strategic, is a major source of tension. The lack of a clear signal from Makinde has opened the door for various factions and aspirants to begin their political manoeuvring, leading to internal wrangling. One major factor in the succession battle is the unwritten political agreement for power rotation within the state’s senatorial districts. Since the return to democracy, the governorship has largely been dominated by figures from the Ibadan zone (Oyo South and parts of Oyo Central). This has led to a growing demand for a governor from other zones, particularly Oyo North, which feels politically marginalized. Aspirants from these zones are pushing for a power shift, arguing for equity and fairness.

The governor’s own position as a political leader from Ibadan makes the balancing act of selecting a successor from another zone a difficult one, as it could alienate his political base. Sunday Sun reliably gathered that some factions have accused Governor Makinde of running the party like a private enterprise, with a lack of reward for loyalty and a growing culture of imposition. This has led to the resignation of some key party officials, highlighting the internal friction.

Makinde’s growing influence within the PDP at the national level and his independent stance have been a source of tension, which could have a ripple effect on the state’s politics.

Apart from PDP aspirants, the Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, Mr Bimbo Adekanmbi, Dr Debo Akande, Beulah Adeoye, Rilwan Adesoji Akanbi, Bayo Shittu, Senator Teslim Folarin, Senator Fatai Buhari, Akeem Agbaje and Prince Kayode Oyetunde Bayewuwon are leading contenders in the opposition APC in Oyo State. They are all warming up to slug it out with their rival contender in the PDP.

Borno

Like other states, Governor Babagana Zulum’s second and final term draws to a close in 2027. Governor Zulum is an immensely popular and well-regarded governor, not just in Borno but across Nigeria, due to his focus on security, infrastructure, and good governance.

The question of who will possibly fill his shoes and maintain the same level of performance and public trust is a major source of concern for many in the state.

While it is widely expected that Governor Zulum will play a crucial role in anointing his successor, he has not publicly revealed his preferred candidate. According to findings by Sunday Sun, this silence is the primary source of the confusion in the APC camp as various aspirants and their factions are left to speculate and jostle for his attention and favour.

The Vice President, Kashim Shettima, is a political heavyweight and the former governor who anointed Zulum as his successor. The relationship between Zulum and Shettima is critical. While it is widely seen as a strong one, the dynamics of a new succession could be different. The political calculations of both men, as well as President Bola Tinubu’s potential influence, will be major determinants in who gets the APC ticket.

Among prominent members of the state’s cabinet and the National Assembly who are jostling for the governorship ticket of the APC is the Deputy Governor, Umar Usman Kadafur, who is often seen as a natural successor.

Nasarawa

In Nasarawa State, Governor Abdullahi Sule, is currently grappling with the complex issue of succession. Some of the notable contenders across party lines are Senator Aliyu Wadada (SDP), Dr Musa Ahmed Muhammed popularly called Barade Nasarawa, former Minister of Environment, Muhammed-Hassan Abdullahi and former governorship candidate of PDP in 2023 election, David Emmanuel Ombugadu. Others are Prof Muhammed Haruna, Dr Faisal Shuaibu, Shehu Tukur, Abu Giza and Muhammed Maikaya.

A major factor fuelling the political tension is the agitation for a power shift to the Nasarawa West senatorial district. Former APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, a prominent figure from Nasarawa West, has been leading the call for the zone to produce the next governor. The argument is based on a rotational principle: Lafia zone has governed for 12 years, Keffi (Nasarawa West) for eight, and the current governor (from Akwanga) is serving his second and final term.

This demand has created a direct conflict with the ambitions of aspirants from the other two senatorial districts (Nasarawa North and Nasarawa South) who may also feel it is their turn or that they have a right to contest.

Governor Sule has warned aspirants not to overheat the polity. He has also made it clear that he would ensure a level playing field in the APC primary.

Bauchi

In Bauchi State, the succession battle is about the struggle for dominance between the two major parties-the ruling PDP and the opposition APC. The APC, despite its internal issues, is determined to reclaim the governorship it lost in 2019. As the Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, Mohammed is also desirous of sustaining the party’s hold in the state. Several powerful individuals, including two former APC governors of Bauchi State, Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar and Isa Yuguda are exerting their influence. (Sunday Sun)