At the centre of Nigeria’s political drama is Nyesom Wike, the former Governor of Rivers State and now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). His influence in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is still strong and could shape its future.

For years, Wike was the key figure in the PDP’s southern base. As governor, he built alliances, funded campaigns, and helped other governors win elections. His time in Rivers State gave the party strength in the region, while his connections across Nigeria made him powerful within the party.

But those same networks also caused problems. In 2022, after Atiku Abubakar from the North became the PDP’s presidential candidate, Wike demanded that the party’s national chairman should come from the South. This followed the usual practice that the candidate and chairman should not come from the same region.

When the party refused, Wike and four other governors formed the G-5 group, a rebellion many believe played a big part in the PDP’s loss in the 2023 election.

When Defeat Breeds Complication

The PDP’s defeat in 2023 shook the party to its core. Its presidential ticket failed to unite supporters, party leadership was thrown into crisis, and the G-5 rebellion deepened mistrust.

Wike’s later appointment as FCT Minister by the APC gave him fresh visibility, even though he officially remained a member of the opposition.

Inside the PDP, the contradictions became sharper. Wike still held a seat on the party’s NEC while openly working against its interests in Rivers State and nationally, and he has publicly pledged support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.

This left the party in a difficult position: suspend or expel him for anti-party activities and risk more divisions, or tolerate him and live with ongoing dysfunction.

Zoning to the South: Reckoning Too Late?

Last Monday, the PDP’s NEC officially zoned its 2027 presidential ticket to the South, while keeping the national chairmanship in the North.

PDP spokesperson Debo Ologunagba stressed that “no one individual is vindicated… if anything, it is the party that has been vindicated.”

He argued that the decision upheld the party’s rotational principles and showed that the PDP was positioning itself as a revitalised opposition.

In contrast, Lere Olayinka, media aide to Wike, claimed vindication for his boss.

“Now that the party has realised its mistake of not listening to Wike and the G-5 in 2022… have they not been vindicated now? But is it not too late already?” Olayinka asked.

These sharply different views highlight the core tension: principle versus timing, reconciliation versus delay.

Polarisation Within the Party

Instead of bringing unity, zoning has created more divisions. Northern blocs, especially in the North-Central zone led by presidential hopeful and former PDP Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Dr. Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, felt left out.

In the South, Governor Seyi Makinde’s South-West bloc has grown stronger, while Wike’s South-South allies have been pushed aside.

Many observers say zoning is less about policy and more about power. Wike’s image as a kingmaker still follows him, and his name is often mentioned in political circles.

But many inside the PDP see his style as harmful rather than helpful, and believe it may even be playing into the APC’s hands.

Conditions for Reconciliation

Wike remains active behind the scenes. He insists that the South-South zonal congress, which produced his ally Chief Dan Orbih as National Vice Chairman for the South-South, must be upheld. He calls this non-negotiable and points to court rulings in its favour.

Party sources say that engaging with Wike is viewed as a tactical move to prevent defections and to boost support in sensitive regions such as the South-South and South-East.

The PDP’s Reckoning Ahead of 2027

The PDP now faces a crossroads. While zoning could energise support in the South, it may also risk losing backing in the North unless efforts are made quickly to build unity.

Attention is now on the upcoming national elective convention in Ibadan, where new party officers will be chosen. Behind the scenes, alliances will be made or broken, and Wike’s support for any candidate for the NWC could strongly influence the outcome.

However, if the party continues to be driven by personalities rather than strategy, it risks repeating the chaos of 2023. Some insiders warn that internal divisions could give the ruling APC an easier path to re-election in 2027.

A Party at a Crossroads

As of today, the PDP sits between unity and collapse. Zoning offers an opportunity, but only if the party can deal with its internal divisions. Wike remains at the centre, both a stabilising force and a source of tension.

The key question is whether the PDP can move from factional politics to principle-led leadership. Can it build on its southern strength while repairing its northern divides? Until it finds that balance, the party risks remaining stuck, with the future of the opposition uncertain. (Saturday Vanguard)