In the months leading up to its 99th National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting in May, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) appeared on the brink of implosion.

The party, which ruled Nigeria for 16 years until its defeat in 2015, became enmeshed in a bitter tussle over its national secretaryship, spawning parallel court cases across the country and fuelling defections that shook its foundations. By early May, fears mounted that the PDP was about to splinter into factions, each with rival secretariats and executives.

At the centre of the storm was the position of national secretary, with three men laying claim to the office: the elected secretary, Senator Sam Anyanwu; his proposed replacement from his South East zone, SKE Udeh-Okoye; and Anyanwu’s deputy, who was pronounced acting secretary, Setonji Koshoedo. The dispute paralyzed the party’s organs and cast doubt on whether the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would recognize its correspondence.

The row had simmered since late 2023, when Anyanwu, after losing the Imo governorship election, returned to reclaim the secretaryship. His comeback set off a chain reaction. By April 2025, Delta Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and his predecessor, Ifeanyi Okowa, who was the PDP’s 2023 vice-presidential candidate, defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC), dragging the state structure with them. The blow was compounded in June when Akwa Ibom’s Governor Umo Eno followed suit.

The Southeast zone, which nominated Udeh-Okoye as Anyanwu’s replacement, also threatened to withdraw if its choice was not recognized. The zone is home to the PDP’s only sitting governor, Peter Mbah of Enugu, making the threat a potential existential risk.

Faced with a looming collapse, the PDP Governors’ Forum, chaired by Bauchi Governor Bala Mohammed, set up an eight-man National Reconciliation and Strategy Committee on May 12. Former Senate President Bukola Saraki chaired the panel, which included three sitting governors, Mbah (Enugu), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara), and Caleb Muftwang (Plateau), alongside ex-governors Seriake Dickson (Bayelsa), Ibrahim Dankwambo (Gombe), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), and Ibrahim Shekarau (Kano).

The committee’s mandate was straightforward but daunting: reconcile warring factions, save the 99th NEC meeting and subsequent ones from collapse, and pave the way for a smooth convention.

Rather than take hardline measures, Saraki’s committee counselled caution. “All efforts must be made to avoid breaking the dry, bent stick holding the party together,” one insider recalled. Saraki repeatedly warned against moves that could trigger further litigation, which he argued would stall the party and embolden its rivals.

Through persuasion, diplomacy, and appeals for sacrifice, the committee secured a fragile consensus. When the NEC met on May 27, contrary to predictions of chaos, it ended without incident.

Walking the secretaryship tightrope

Still, the core dispute lingered. The Southeast bloc renewed its demand for Anyanwu’s removal, but Saraki’s committee warned that abrupt action would expose the PDP to damaging lawsuits and INEC rejection.

To settle the matter, the party leadership sought direct clarification from INEC. On June 24, acting chairman Umar Damagum led a delegation, including Bala Mohammed and Mbah, to meet the electoral umpire. INEC made it clear: it recognised Anyanwu as secretary and would only honour documents bearing his signature.

The clarification forced the PDP to maintain the status quo. Days later, Saraki even chaired Anyanwu’s 60th birthday event, a symbolic gesture of rapprochement, according to insiders.

Party insiders said the compromise was to let Anyanwu remain until the convention while assuring the Southeast that its concerns would be addressed under new leadership.

The calm held until the 101st NEC on July 24, where the party finally approved plans for its convention to be held in Ibadan on November 15–16. By then, however, the PDP had also suffered the exit of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and other heavyweights like former minister Adamu Maina Waziri, deepening fears of erosion.

Wike factor and renewed anxieties

Nyesom Wike, FCT minister and a key defender of Anyanwu’s position, initially dropped his guard at the July NEC. But by August, tensions resurfaced after Wike claimed ignorance of the convention date and threatened legal action. His loyalists also distanced themselves from a Southern zoning summit in Lagos, fuelling speculation of rival conventions.

Ahead of the 102nd NEC held on Monday, rumours spread that Wike and his allies faced suspension. But a pre-NEC session at Bauchi Governor’s Lodge, attended by Saraki’s committee, governors, and elders, defused the crisis, Daily Trust reliably gathered.

“It was agreed that further disintegration would destroy everyone’s 2027 chances,” one insider said. “That was where the disciplinary report by Tom Ikimi’s committee was put to rest. They embraced compromise, give and take, forgive and forget.”

The Bauchi meeting also firmed up other decisions: Damagum’s confirmation as substantive national chairman, Anyanwu’s retention until convention, and an agreement for the entire National Working Committee (NWC) to step aside for new faces.

Zoning and 2027 permutations

The NEC ratified the zoning committee’s recommendation, led by Bayelsa Governor, Douye Diri, to retain existing offices in their zones and rotate the 2027 presidential ticket to the South.

According to insiders, after fielding northern candidates in 2019 and 2023, leaders felt the mood favoured a southern flagbearer.

The zoning, sources said, is also a strategic move to woo figures like Goodluck Jonathan and Peter Obi, while leaving the door open for Oyo Governor Seyi Makinde or even Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, whose refusal to join the APC keeps him in play.

“All correspondence needed for the convention has been signed, and INEC was present at the last NEC,” one source added. “The October 15 NEC will finalise micro-zoning.”

Party insiders said the 102nd NEC also saw the return of old members to Wadata Plaza, signalling renewed confidence.

Analysts warn peace may be short-lived if …

Despite the fragile stability, political scientist, Professor Kamilu Sani Fage of Bayero University Kano, warned that the peace deal might not last beyond the convention.

“This is a temporary measure to calm nerves. They will likely hold the convention, but it will be a graveyard peace,” he said.

Fage criticised the zoning as undemocratic, warning it could alienate northern blocs. “Northern youths already see it as some leaders sitting in a room to dictate outcomes,” he said.

“The South-West is already lost if Tinubu runs. If the ticket goes to the South-East, the South-West won’t follow. They are on a risky path. The better option would have been to throw it open,” he argued. (Weekend Trust)