When the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced the decline of Nigeria’s inflation rate for a third consecutive month to 22.22 percent in June, many were excited, especially the government.

The development, most probably, influenced President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s recent comment that Nigeria’s economy, which had gone through a tough period, has now stabilised under his watch.

But many are awaiting news of further declines from the NBS in the coming months to consolidate on the positive development, while others argue that the impact of the decline is yet to be felt by ordinary Nigerians.

Many argue that the value of the Naira is still falling and that N1,545 per $UDS1 as at August 1, 2025, does not signal much hope for recovery.

Again, observers noted that prices of items in the market are not reflecting the inflation decline, especially foodstuffs, which is soaring lately.

“The only stability I see is in the price of petrol courtesy of the Dangote Refinery, yet the cost of transportation is increasing,” Chimezie Ogunka, a banker, said.

Ogunka, an economist, argued that ordinarily, a declining inflation should have a direct impact on the prices of items in the market, especially when the decline has been consistent.

“We economists can speak all the grammar about the economy, but the average Nigerian is after tangible evidence. If they go to the market and prices of items are coming down, they will believe in your grammar. But prices are still rising, rice is rising again,” he said.

Countering Ogunka, Olabode Lawal, another economist, noted that inflation is truly declining, but not at a level the impact would be felt so much.

“The NBS said that there has been a three-month consecutive inflation decline up to June. If the development continues, the economy will definitely rebound to an obvious level to the man in the street. The managers of our economy should keep up with what they are doing that has sustained the decline so far,” the university don said.

But many are also concerned that the lingering insecurity situation in the country is a major drawback for economic recovery, citing disruption of agricultural activities, relocation of businesses to safer places, huge money paid daily as ransom to bandits and kidnappers and the killing of people in productive age.

Bem Hembafan, an Abuja-based security expert, noted that with the persisting farmer-herder clashes, and the sacking of farming communities by Boko Haram and other insurgent groups, food insecurity will worsen, leaving prices of food items in the market and raw materials for manufacturing very high.

We truly need security for the economy to rebound. We have banned many items to protect local businesses and boost production. If we don’t provide security for local raw materials producers, the essence of the ban would be defeated. Security is all that the Nigerian economy needs to recover,” Hembafan, a Tiv, Benue-born retired senior security officer, said.

He decried that fruit juicers and agro-allied companies that depend on fruit supplies from Benue State are closing shop due to insecurity as farmers are being killed trying to earn legitimate living.

“Oranges and mangoes are rotting away in farms in Gboko, Aliede and Ukum because of the fear of being killed while plucking them for supplies. The reality is that Benue is no longer the food basket of the nation because insecurity has not allowed farmers to farm again,” Hembafan decried.

Insecurity is also a big issue for some employers of labour, who are not able to attract the needed skilled manpower due to insecurity in their locations.

Yakubu Ruka, an engineer and contractor with some telecommunications companies in managing their base stations, decried that some workers are rejecting postings to some areas on the ground of insecurity and the remoteness of the area.

“Even when you double their salaries and allowances, they decline based on insecurity. I don’t blame them because it Is the living that works,” he said.

The above is the same reason many corps members are rejecting postings to primary assignment locations they consider unsafe.

Recently, at the 2025 Annual Corps Employers’ Workshop held in Jos, Plateau State, Olakunle Nafiu, a brigadier general and director-general of, National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), raised the alarm over the increasing rejection of corps members by assigned employers.

But the reality is that corps members, supported by their parents and sponsors, are the ones influencing the rejection by employers, especially in places they felt unsafe.

The trend is due to the rising insecurity across the country as no reasonable parent wishes to lose a child after sacrifices and years of training in tertiary institutions.

Again, the list of NYSC members who lost their lives in the service is long and still growing, while the list of those kidnapped and released after a huge ransom was paid is longer.

“Why will my child go as far as Sokoto or Katsina when we hear that people are being killed there. I will rather keep him at home and pay him the allowance than to allow him to risk his life while serving Nigeria. Who cares when he dies if not me and me alone,” Benson Alaghe, an oil rig worker in River State, said.

Many parents are toeing Alaghe’s line, noting that safety matters more for them than the NYSC certificate, which does not guarantee a job.

“If you know the sacrifices we made to train our two children in private schools, you will understand why we ask them to decline NYSC postings. My son, a medical doctor, cannot go to Plateau State where they are killing every day. What if something bad happens while he is servicing there, the government will say sorry or give us money. Can that money buy life? NYSC cannot dictate for us because they did not pay school fees for us,” Alice Oyemade, a mother of two, said.

On the part of employers, there is no need to risk the lives of young graduates in places they consider unsafe, though the rejection is often based on the lack of the needed skills.

While the above are some of the consequences of the rising insecurity, business travels and tours across the country are equally impacted as companies restrict corporate travels to safe areas, especially Lagos and Abuja.

Tour operators find it difficult convincing potential clients to tour some destinations in the country due to the growing insecurity.

Kehinde Olugbile, a Lagos-based tour operator, decried that many potential travellers patronise foreign destinations because they are safer than destinations in Nigeria.

“I proposed Obudu Mountain Resort to a client, but he noted that it has been taken over by herdsmen, which is a lie. I gave options of Ikogosi Resort and Smokin Hills, but on mentioning their locations, he declined that he prefers places one can fly to due to insecurity,” Kehinde noted.

While that amounted to a loss on his part, Ogunka decried that many small businesses, which are supposed to be the engine room of the economy, are closing due to low patronage, no thanks to insecurity.

He noted that the economy cannot be said to be recovering when insecurity is still on the rise.

“There is a direct correlation between security and economic growth. An unsafe country attracts less investments from within and outside its shores. The government should put extra efforts at revamping the economy and when that happens, the masses feel it. For now, the impact of the recovery is not being felt,” he said.

But the federal government and its agencies believe the insecurity situation in the country is better now than in the last three or four years.

The National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu, recently said that incidents of Boko Haram attacks, banditry, and communal violence in Nigeria’s northern region have significantly reduced under President Tinubu’s administration, compared to the previous government.

Ribadu, who spoke at a recent two-day interactive session organised by the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation in Kaduna attributed the decline to Tinubu’s directive for a unified approach to national security.

“Kaduna State alone recorded 1,192 killings and over 3,348 kidnappings under the previous administration. In Benue, over 5,000 people lost their lives within the same period,” Ribadu said.

He also said that ongoing military operations in the North-West have resulted in the rescue of 11,259 hostages as of May 2025, and that several notorious bandit leaders and their groups have been neutralised in Zamfara, Kaduna, and Katsina states. ( BusinessDay)