Nigeria’s commitment, at least on paper, to The Mission 300 Africa Energy summit held recently in Tanzania, is no doubt, the kind of ambitious push that the country needs to move out of the woods towards massive electricity supply and industrialisation. Nigerians watch with interest how the country translates this ambition into reality.

Past experience of good plans and bad implementations are of course discouraging; but President Bola Tinubu and his team have an opportunity to break the jinx and make Nigeria proud, more so that poor supply of power has been a major bane of industrialists, manufacturers and foreign investors, many of whom have had to abandon their projects and move to climes with less harrowing business environment.

there are fresh initiatives to boost the generation and supply of electricity, both at home and in Africa. At the two-day energy summit that was held in Tanzania, there were pledges to deliver electricity to 300 million people by 2030. Towards fulfilling that pledge, the Federal Government announced a $23.2 billion National Energy Compact target, with $15.5 billion private sector participation. The aim is to increase energy access from 4 per cent to 9 per cent yearly, boost access to clean cooking solutions from 22 per cent to 25 per cent yearly, expand renewable energy’s share in the power generation mix from 22 per cent to 50 per cent, and mobilise $15.5 billion.

The Mission 300 Africa Energy summit, which was attended by President Tinubu, alongside other African leaders, including the African Union, the African Development Bank Group and the World Bank, is a good initiative on paper. However, the challenge is for the government to go beyond endorsing multilateral declarations and signing MoUs, without the commensurate commitment to invest and nurture programmes to fruition.

There is no dearth of policies and blueprints on how to fix the energy deficit in Africa. But there hasn’t been a serious push from within. In October 2024, the International Energy Forum (IEF), the world’s largest international organisation of energy ministers, of which Nigeria is a member, emphasised improved energy access as a critical component in tackling poverty in Africa. The forum was bothered that despite improved global energy access, around 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa lacked access to electricity, as reported by the World Bank report.

Africa is reported to generate a mere three per cent of global energy output while housing 17 per cent of the global population. Yet it is estimated to have 60 per cent of yet-to-be-tapped potential solar sites globally.

For Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, the challenge of energy deficit is worrisome. The Renewable Energy Association of Nigeria (REAN), reported that Nigeria has the world’s largest electricity access deficit, with 45 per cent of the population (90 million) not connected to the national grid. With just over 4,000 megawatts of electricity wheeled along ageing transmission lines, millions of households have been conditioned to live with epileptic supplies. Together with poor policies and dubious implementation, Nigeria has continued to experience abysmal performance in the sector.

Matters got so bad that in December 2024, the Senate resolved to revisit the privatisation of electricity assets carried out in 2013, which unbundled the National Electricity Power Authority (NEPA), and sold the emerging companies to private investors. The private owners, comprising generation and distribution companies have been unable to build upon what they bought, both upstream and downstream, despite repeated bailouts by the government. The National Assembly (NASS) should not sweep that report under the carpet. The sector is long overdue for a comprehensive probe.

Apart from the $16 billion reported to be invested to prime the sector for privatisation under President Obasanjo, the Buhari government is on record to have injected various sums to support the sector post-privatisation, including loans to enable DisCos meter consumers. In May 2024, the Federal Government secured a $500 million loan from the World Bank to improve the financial and technical performance of the DisCos.

In December 2023, the World Bank approved a $750 million credit support for clean energy projects in the country. In September 2024, prominent climate organisations – the Rockefeller Foundation, Global Alliance for People and Planet and Sustainable Energy For All, unveiled a technical facility to raise $90 billion to bring electricity to 300 million people in Africa. The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, also said in April 2024, that Nigeria needed $10 billion yearly for the next 10 years to revive the sector. Nigerians are inundated with mega sums but with miserly 4000 megawatts of supply. Pathetic!

It is high time the government harnessed these global efforts to boost local capacity. It is time the government addressed the reasons for low power generation, resolved the incident of ageing power plants, and addressed the lack of capital as well as the absence of transparency in the management of privatised power assets.

To attract investors, the government has to demonstrate openness and make the country investment-friendly. Investors are looking for destinations where there is rule of law and transparency. The lack of accountability and due process that trailed transactions in the Siemens and Mambilla Hydro projects does not recommend Nigeria to foreign investors. It is the same way the government mismanaged prospects at Ajaokuta and Aladja Steel companies. President Tinubu and the 36 governors, plus the Minster of FCT must sanitise the country’s systems to make the country attractive.

Again, it is the duty of the government to provide security for investment. To attract foreign Direct Investment (FDI), the government must tackle insecurity. A situation where bandits and terrorists plunder power assets with little resistance from the government does not encourage investors.

The government should equally make real the promise to roll out seven million smart meters in 2025. In this respect, the government is reminded that previous initiatives to meter consumers have failed due to a lack of transparency and accountability. In 2018, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) launched the Meter Asset Provider (MAP) programme. It was only partially successful. The National Mass Metering Programme (NMMP) and the Distribution Sector Recovery Programme (DISREP), that followed, were also bogged by pricing and management disagreements. Nothing is on the ground to show that this latest plan would record success because the wrongheaded fundamentals have not changed.

President Tinubu should remember his promise to revamp the sector in his Renewed Hope Agenda. Without stable, affordable and available electricity, Nigeria cannot become an industrial giant. (The Guardian Editorial)