What started like an internal crisis on January 13, 2025, when 36 lawmakers impeached Rt. Hon. Mudashiru Obasa as Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly has now degenerated into a major political crisis unsettling the home base of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Even though he is yet to formally declare his interest in the race, sources say that the development in Lagos could pose some threats to the 2027 second term bid of President Tinubu, who needs all the home support he can get to actualise his presidential dream.

It would be recalled that Tinubu did not win Lagos State in the 2023 presidential election, but the dynamics of voting might change significantly in 2027, according to political pundits.

About two years ahead of the 2027 election, alignment and realignment of forces have started even as old foes and friends are reuniting, positioning strategically for the poll.

Politicians across all divides also have their eyes on the race, forming strategic alliances to make their dreams come true.

There are some indications that the northern part of Nigeria, where President Tinubu made great inroad in 2023, is unhappy with the current administration at the Centre over a number of factors.

This hint was voiced out by some notable personalities in the region, including former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai.

In an interview with ThisDay, a former National Secretary of the defunct Action Congress (AC), Dr. Usman Bugaje, described the current All Progressives Congress (APC)-led government as a disaster.

“If you cannot perform, you leave. What is the performance of the budget of 2024 for this particular president? My figure is that the budget performance was only 22 per cent. Do you think these kind of people should be allowed to continue? Now, forget that he’s from the south or the north or from anywhere. For me, wherever he comes from, if he cannot perform, he should leave; simple!” Bugaje made these remarks when referred to El-Rufai’s statement that Tinubu might get the former President Goodluck Jonathan’s treatment in the next round of election.

And it is from this perspective that the crisis in the Lagos State House of Assembly may further worsen Tinubu’s stand in the 2027 presidential race as analysts say this could unsettle the machinery which he had deployed for over two decades to help in winning various elections in Lagos State.

This is despite the vote of confidence recently passed on him by the APC National Executive Committee (NEC) citing his performance in the last two years. But analysts say he needs more than the confidence vote to prosecute his 2027 agenda.

The crisis in the Lagos House of Assembly has also been linked to the jockeying for the 2027 election in the state with several politicians who are members of Tinubu’s political dynasty eyeing the coveted governorship seat with the hope of succeeding Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu.

The impeachment of Obasa on January 13th was considered a move to “clip” the wing of the Speaker who was perceived to be wielding enormous influence in the state’s political firmament, which might work for him in securing the APC’s ticket for the Government House in Alausa.

Obasa was away on vacation in the United States when the lawmakers impeached him and immediately elected his Deputy, Mojisola Meranda as the Speaker.

Some of the allegations against Obasa were gross misconduct and poor leadership, highhandedness and lack of regard for members, intimidation and suppression of members, including inciting members against one another, misappropriation of funds and lack of transparency, gross abuse of office and privilege; the allegations which he has debunked.

When many people thought his impeachment was a foregone conclusion, Obasa arrived in the country on January 24, 2025, to describe his removal as null and void, saying it did not follow due process.

Amidst the disquiet and anxiety surrounding the impeachment and the leadership turmoil in the House of Assembly, President Tinubu was said to have expressed displeasure over Obasa’s impeachment. Unconfirmed reports said the president even directed that Obasa be reinstated.

Many keen observers fear that if this impasse lingers, the monolithic force that has always been a force behind the president within the ranks of his associates could be shattered completely. And given that he was unable to win Lagos State in the 2023 presidential election, this development may end up worsening his performance in the 2027 presidential poll.

Added to the fears is the indication of an expected big battle over the 2027 governorship bid in the state even within the APC, with the president’s son, Seyi said to be eyeing the No. 1 Seat.

According to some observers, the president’s inability to keep his home base intact ahead of the 2027 elections may give a wrong signal to his other associates within and outside the South West geopolitical zone.

Tinubu was said to have been in the dark over the development and drafted the “GAC” to intervene. The Governance Advisory Council (GAC), the highest decision making organ of the APC in Lagos State, is revered by all party members. The members comprising former governors, serving and former senators, former deputy governors and other APC leaders, across the 20 local governments and 37 local council development areas in the state, decide who gets what at every election.

Political observers cannot forget in a hurry how the GAC decided the fate of former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode and he lost his second term bid in 2019.

The GAC was, however, drafted to intercede in the ongoing impasse in the Lagos Assembly. Part of the group’s tasks, according to feelers, was to see to the reinstatement of Obasa.

But the 36 lawmakers backing Meranda rejected the decision, in what analysts describe as a direct challenge on the authority of the president who is invariably the leader of the party in the state.

Weekend Trust gathered that for the first time, the GAC failed to resolve a major political crisis because members of the council have taken sides in the matter, and are therefore divided. The GAC has been turned along pro and anti-Obasa lines, it was gathered.

Two GAC members, Chief Muraina Taiwo and Senator Anthony Adefuye had sided with Obasa. They openly spoke against the process of his removal. Inside sources also said several others were backing him.

One of the GAC members who spoke with our correspondent, on the condition of anonymity, however, backed Meranda, reflecting the deep-seated division among leaders of the party.

The GAC member who was asked to comment on the crisis said: “Obasa is just one out of the 40-member House and if your colleagues say they don’t want you, why are you creating problems for us. To me, I think Obasa should just allow peace to reign and stop causing crisis.”

Bisi Akande drafted to resolve crisis

Weekend Trust learnt that when the GAC appear to have failed to resolve the crisis, former national chairman of the APC, Chief Bisi Akande and former Ogun State governor, Chief Segun Osoba, both confidants of Tinubu, were drafted to resolve the crisis. They were joined by other leaders, including Rep. James Faleke (Ikeja Federal Constituency), former Commissioner for Justice, Dr. Muiz Banire, among others.

Several meetings held last weekend pointed to the direction of Obasa resuming with the condition that he would resign afterwards to give him a “soft landing.” This, it was gathered from sources, was why his security details were restored by the police to pave way for his return to the House.

It was learnt further that the restoration of Obasa’s details early this week was a pointer to the gentlemen’s agreement which enabled him (Obasa) to storm the House of Assembly on Thursday with his supporters and loyalists. But the Akande-led committee was said to be unable to get the buy-in of other lawmakers to do the president’s rumoured bidding.

Is Tinubu behind Obasa?

Analysts believe the decision of Obasa to storm the assembly in a triumphant move on Thursday was a reflection of the support and green light he got from the top, however, “unpopular” the action might be.

Many lawmakers loyal to Meranda were within the premises of the House when Obasa arrived.

They watched in awe as the drama unfolded, but rejected his return and insisted Meranda remains their Speaker. They said they had decided to move on and there was no going back.

Sources said the decision by the lawmakers not to accept Obasa back was considered an affront to the president, who is widely reported to be in favour of Obasa’s return. “The president wanted a soft landing for Obasa and he doesn’t want him to be rubbished like nobody,” a source said.

The source said in backing Obasa, the president and those in alignment with him consider his popularity as a grassroots politician. In Agege, where he hails from, he is like a tin-god. The Arewa Community adores him and he remains one of the strongest APC leaders in the state, whose popularity the party cannot dispense with.

A chieftain of the party who spoke with our correspondent yesterday said: “The lawmakers insisting Obasa cannot return are actually daring the president. They cannot do such if the president were to be in the state.

“The president is now the father of the nation and that is why he has not spoken openly on the matter. But can these lawmakers confront him if he is in the state? The president said he doesn’t want something and you are saying otherwise. They are actually stepping beyond their boundaries. No doubt the House has its extant rules and regulations guiding its conducts, but the party is supreme and the leadership of the party cannot be challenged for anything,” he said.

Political scientist, Gbade Ojo, said the coup against Obasa was very “ridiculous,” saying he was impeached when he was not available to defend himself.

However, he stated that Obasa’s removal as Speaker might not affect the president’s second term ambition, adding: “The fact that the president is supporting him is still a rumour. The president needs everybody and the election has nothing to do with Obasa”.

Sanwo-Olu’s connection

In all of these, the state governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, who is the number one political office holder in the state, has been mum as the crisis rages. But he has been fingered as the brain behind the removal of Obasa who, sources claim, has been “disrespectful” to the governor. There were speculations that the governor “mobilised” the lawmakers to carry out the impeachment and the new leadership of the house under Meranda has been paying obeisance to him.

While he has kept mute over the development, it was learnt that his position over the crisis has pitched him against the president to the extent that he has been denied “access” to Tinubu.

Public Affairs commentator, Jide Ojo, believes Obasa’s removal was masterminded by the governor in cahoots with some members of the GAC.

“There is no smoke without fire, and obviously GAC in cahoots with the governor masterminded the removal of Obasa”, he said.

Meranda’s family background, support from colleagues threaten Obasa’s return

The crisis has thrown up the indigene-settlers’ crisis given the background of Meranda as a Princess of Iru land and a sister to the present traditional ruler of Oniru, a first class monarch in the state.

Following the withdrawal of Meranda’s security details, there were reports that those of the Oniru, Oba Abdulwasiu Omogbolahan Lawal, were also withdrawn, allegedly in connection with the Lagos Assembly crisis.

The monarch openly celebrated the election of his sister as the first female Speaker of the House of Assembly.

Following Meranda’s election, Oba Lawal wrote on his social media page thus: “I’ve just received the heart-warming news that my sister, Hon. Mojisola Meranda has been sworn-in as the first female speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly.

“I am thrilled & excited that providence has provided her a bigger platform to serve the good people of Lagos State. I pray to Almighty Allah, to give her wisdom, strength and courage to discharge her duties without fear or favour”, he wrote.

Already, the crisis has fuelled an indigene-settler debate with some people claiming that Obasa is originally from Ogun State while the indigenes are siding Meranda, asking her not to resign despite the pressure.

Findings by our correspondent revealed that Meranda’s background has been a pillar for her in the current battle of the speaker position.

“She is not just a princess, she is an indigene of Lagos and she is a woman. Unlike when the governor would be a man and deputy, a woman, today, we have men as governor and deputy governor and the women are happy that her emergence has given the women their place in the top echelon of leadership in the state,” Jide Ojo, an associate professor added.

He, however, advised that the president needs to do a serious fence-mending in order not to truncate his 2027 ambition. He stated that the lawmakers who are against returning Obasa were concerned about their fate in 2027 as well, which explains why the house spokesperson was beckoning on their leaders to meet them directly.

“If they have a promise of a return ticket, they don’t mind throwing Meranda under the bus. They are doing this because they want assurances from their leaders,” he added.

Meranda talks tough

Speaking yesterday, Meranda, described as a show of shame, the plenary conducted on Thursday by the ousted speaker, Obasa, with four members in attendance.

Yesterday, the Lagos High Court sitting in Ikeja, ordered that all members of the Lagos House of Assembly be joined as parties in the suit filed by the ousted speaker.

Justice Yetunde Pinheiro also adjourned till March 7, to hear all pending applications in the matter.

The 35 lawmakers backing Meranda as the speaker were at the court for the hearing of a matter brought by Obasa. (Daily Trust)